NFL

Seahawks-Packers: Collins among keys to game as Wilson & Rodgers return

By Sports Desk November 14, 2021

Week 9 saw the NFL world robbed of an extremely compelling quarterback matchup, Aaron Rodgers left to watch from home as the Green Bay Packers fell to defeat against Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.

However, Rodgers is set to return from his controversial coronavirus-enforced hiatus on Sunday at Lambeau Field, where he will face another likely future Hall of Fame quarterback set to return to the field.

Russell Wilson lived up to praise from head coach Pete Carroll, who described him as "one of the great healers of all time" after a finger injury suffered in the Week 5 loss to the Los Angeles Rams, surpassing expectations by recovering in time to lead the Seattle Seahawks against Green Bay as they bid to salvage their season.

The Seahawks are not dead at 3-5. Seattle enter the week just a game out of the final Wild Card berth; however, Wilson and Co. have little room for error ahead of a road game with a member of the NFC's elite.

It is a contest that may be decided by which quarterback can shake off the rust faster. Wilson has been on the sideline longer, but Rodgers will enter the game having missed two weeks of practice amid the fallout from his positive test and his comments around his vaccination status.

What other factors will play a role in determining the outcome of an enticing quarterback battle? Stats Perform digs into the numbers to answer that question.

Can Collins gash Packers on ground?

The Packers defense has quietly been one of the best in the NFL when it comes to limiting efficient production from their opponents.

Indeed, Green Bay rank fifth in opponent yards per play allowed, giving up just 5.27.

However, the Packers have proven susceptible to the run, with only six teams allowing more yards per rush than Green Bay's 4.55.

With Chris Carson still unavailable for the Seahawks, the onus will be on Alex Collins to take advantage of the Packers' apparent vulnerability on rush defense.

Collins has proven adept at making the most of his carries even on plays where the defense gets into the backfield. He is putting up 3.00 yards per carry on attempts where there is a run disruption, above the league average of 2.80.

His ability to excel in that regard could be key in getting the Packers' defense out of looks that have proven successful against Wilson.

Two-high looks could spell trouble for Wilson

In last week's loss to the Chiefs, the Packers played a significant amount of two-deep safety coverages to deal with the threat of Mahomes and a usually explosive pass game that has stuttered this season.

It worked as the Chiefs were held to just 13 points, and the numbers suggest Green Bay will lean on two-high looks again to try to slow down Wilson on his return.

When faced with Cover 2 this season, Wilson has delivered an accurate, well-thrown ball 80.0 per cent of the time; the league average is 83.4.

He has fared even worse against Cover 4 or 'Quarters', posting a well-thrown percentage of 72.4 (79.6 per cent is the average), and that number dips further to 62.5 per cent versus cover 6 (average 77.3 per cent).

Against Tampa 2, which is a variant of Cover 2 with a linebacker dropping into the deep middle at the snap, Wilson's well-thrown percentage is 75.0, again below the average of 82.7.

Wilson has already outperformed expectations by returning this quickly from injury and has made a career out of making the improbable possible. Yet, if Collins cannot succeed on the ground and force the Packers to bring a safety down into the box to stop the run, it could be a difficult day for Wilson facing coverages against which he has not excelled.

Seahawks must capitalise on Bakhtiari blow

The Packers had hoped to have David Bakhtiari back at left tackle, but he was listed as doubtful on the injury report as he attempts to make his return from a knee injury.

Bakhtiari's likely absence is a boost to a Seahawks defense that may see its best hope of slowing down Rodgers as being in their ability to get consistent pressure on the reigning MVP and magnify the impact of any potential rust.

While the Seahawks are a middle-of-the-road defense in terms of yards per play, in which they rank 16th (5.55), they are a top-half unit when it comes to creating pressure.

Their 139 pressures this season are 13th in the NFL and, in Rodgers, they are facing a quarterback who has proven particularly susceptible to opposing pass rushes in 2021.

Only team-mate Jordan Love (40.0) and Zach Wilson (53.7) have worse well-thrown percentages than Rodgers (55.2) when under duress among quarterbacks to have attempted 10 passes under pressure.

And Rodgers' pickable pass rate of 8.62 per cent under pressure is substantially worse than the average for quarterbacks (min. 10 attempts) of 4.82.

The spotlight will be firmly on Rodgers after a fortnight he will not forget in a hurry. It is the Seahawks, though, who enter the game with their backs against the wall, and it may take an instrumental performance from Collins and a potent pass rush to prevent Seattle slipping further towards playoff irrelevance.

Related items

  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • Denis Compton to Victoria Pendleton – Louis Rees-Zammit joins multi-sport stars Denis Compton to Victoria Pendleton – Louis Rees-Zammit joins multi-sport stars

    Former Wales and British and Irish Lions wing Louis Rees-Zammit is reportedly set to join reigning Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs.

    The 23-year-old stunned the world of rugby in January by quitting the sport in an attempt to secure a contract with an NFL team in 2024, and his dream could soon come true.

    Here, the PA news agency looks at some other multi-talented sports stars.

    Denis Compton (cricket and football)

    Compton played 75 Test matches for England, making his debut in 1937 aged 19 and scoring his first century the following year against Don Bradman’s touring Australian side.

    He had made his Arsenal debut in 1936 and went on to win the league title in 1948 and FA Cup in 1950 with the Gunners, the same year in which he helped Middlesex win the County Championship.

    Babe Didrikson Zaharias (athletics, golf)

    Zaharias also excelled at basketball and baseball, but initially made her name in track and field, winning two gold medals and one silver in the 1932 Olympics in Los Angeles.

    Zaharias won the javelin comfortably, took the 80 metres hurdles in a world-record time and finished equal first in the high jump before losing the title when her technique was deemed illegal.

    A latecomer to golf, she won more than 50 titles, including the US Women’s Open three times, and co-founded the LPGA.

    Lottie Dod (tennis, golf, archery)

    Lottie Dod remains Wimbledon’s youngest women’s singles champion, winning the first of her five titles at just 15 years and 285 days old in 1887.

    Later turning her attention to golf, she won the 1904 British Ladies Amateur title and four years later won a silver medal in archery at the Olympic Games in London, where her brother Willy claimed gold in the men’s event.

    Jim Thorpe (athletics, American football, baseball, basketball)

    The first Native American to win gold for the United States in the Olympics, Thorpe won both the pentathlon and decathlon in Stockholm in 1912.

    He lost his titles after it emerged he had previously been paid for playing semi-professional baseball, but they were eventually reinstated by the International Olympic Committee.

    Thorpe played six seasons in Major League Baseball and for six NFL teams, as well as enjoying a less-well documented spell in professional basketball.

    Victoria Pendleton (cycling and horse racing)

    Two-time Olympic champion track cyclist Victoria Pendleton announced in March 2015 that she had set her sights on riding in the following year’s Cheltenham Festival.

    She made her competitive debut in August 2015 and won her first race, on March 2, 2016, on 5-4 favourite Pacha Du Polder at Wincanton.

    Pendleton then achieved her stated aim of riding in the Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham and finished fifth, describing the result as “probably the greatest achievement of my life”.

  • Louis Rees-Zammit reportedly signs for Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs Louis Rees-Zammit reportedly signs for Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs

    Former Wales rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit has signed for Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs, according to a report in the United States.

    Rees-Zammit is set to join the Chiefs’ practice squad, having impressed during his time on the NFL’s international player pathway.

    The 23-year-old’s signing is expected to be confirmed on Friday, with running back and wide receiver his designated positions.

    The move comes after he visited several NFL franchises, including the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos.

    Rees-Zammit’s next goal is to win a place on the Chiefs’ final roster for the new season, joining their star players Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in targeting a third-successive Super Bowl.

    The Gloucester, Wales and Lions wing stunned the world of rugby in January by quitting the sport in an attempt to secure a contract with an NFL team in 2024.

    That dream moved a step closer when he impressed during last week’s pro day that forms part of the international player pathway.

    Rees-Zammit clocked 4.43 seconds in his 40-yard dash, a 9ft 7in broad jump and 29-inch vertical jump.

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.