NFL

NFL Fantasy Picks: Herbert should electrify against Chiefs

By Sports Desk September 23, 2021

Is it Week 3 already? The advent of a 17th game means the regular season will stretch further into January, but the NFL campaign always seems to fly by at breakneck speed.

In the world of fantasy football, plenty of managers may be seeing things spiral out of control in a hurry after an 0-2 start.

Or maybe you're on the other end of things, with at least one win on the board and feeling satisfied that your draft-day decisions were the right ones.

Either way, it's important to remember that fantasy is a weekly game, and success hinges on the selection calls made each weekend.

Stats Perform is here to try to help you make the correct calls. Here's this week's look at four players and a defense in strong spots to produce matchup-winning fantasy scores.

Quarterback: Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs

Herbert was frustrated in Week 2 as the Chargers let opportunities go begging in their defeat to the Dallas Cowboys, with two interceptions undermining an otherwise impressive display that saw him throw for 338 yards and a touchdown.

However, Herbert should be enticed by a matchup with a Chiefs defense that has produced turnovers but has proved extremely hospitable to opposing offenses.

Indeed, the Chiefs are allowing a league-worst 7.56 yards per play through two games. Only the Detroit Lions (9.44) are allowing more yards per pass play than the Chiefs (9.37).

Going against a porous defense and with Patrick Mahomes a near-certainty to deliver points on the other side, Herbert has a clear opportunity to record his third successive 300-yard game to start the season and put up a massive fantasy performance in a potential shootout.

Running Back: Ty'Son Williams, Baltimore Ravens @ Detroit Lions

Despite seeing their running back depth decimated by injuries, the Ravens saw their backfield get going in a huge way in their stunning Week 2 win over the Chiefs.

Baltimore gashed Kansas City for 251 yards on the ground at an average of 6.1 yards per carry. The complexity that quarterback Lamar Jackson's running threat brings to their rushing attack played a significant role, but the Ravens will have been extremely encouraged by Williams' performance.

Williams averaged 5.9 yards per carry as he put up 77 yards on 13 carries, and he now gets the opportunity to go against a Lions defense that has been relatively stout against the run but has given up a league-high nine offensive touchdowns.

For fantasy managers light at running back, Williams could be an intriguing option.

Wide Receiver: D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers @ Houston Texans

On the surface, there is not much intrigue in Thursday's primetime clash between the Panthers and Texans.

However, with Sam Darnold showing signs of improvement in Carolina following his departure from the New York Jets, potential fantasy matchup winners can be found among their passing game options.

Aside from Christian McCaffrey, Moore is the top threat on the Panthers' offense. He had eight catches for 79 yards and a touchdown last week against a New Orleans Saints defense that is superior to that of the Texans, which allowed Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield to complete 90 per cent of his passes in Week 2.

Targeted 19 times across his first two games, if Moore gets a double-digit share as he did versus New Orleans, he will be set up perfectly to deliver another productive performance.

Tight End: T.J. Hockenson, Detroit Lions vs. Baltimore Ravens

While the Lions may be in a rebuilding year, Hockenson is constructing an excellent case for him to be considered among the NFL's premier players at the tight end position.

He has 163 yards and two touchdowns in his first two games and now gets to face a Ravens defense giving up the most fantasy points per game in the league to opposing tight ends.

Shredded for 109 yards and a touchdown by Travis Kelce in Week 2 and for 105 yards and a score by Darren Waller in Week 1, the odds of the Ravens preventing Hockenson from producing a similar statline appear slim.

Defense: Arizona Cardinals @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Backing a defense to excel after a game in which that unit gave up 26 points in a 34-33 shootout win may seem foolhardy.

While the Cardinals' defense is certainly vulnerable, as the Minnesota Vikings proved last week, Arizona could hardly ask for a better matchup in which to bounce back on that side of the ball.

Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence is tied for the league lead in interceptions having tossed five already this season. His air yards per attempt average of 10.49 is second among quarterbacks with at least 10 passes, but he is delivering an accurate, well-thrown ball just 66.3 per cent of the time.

That combination of aggressiveness and inaccuracy is a recipe for a bounce-back performance from the Arizona defense.

Related items

  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • Denis Compton to Victoria Pendleton – Louis Rees-Zammit joins multi-sport stars Denis Compton to Victoria Pendleton – Louis Rees-Zammit joins multi-sport stars

    Former Wales and British and Irish Lions wing Louis Rees-Zammit is reportedly set to join reigning Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs.

    The 23-year-old stunned the world of rugby in January by quitting the sport in an attempt to secure a contract with an NFL team in 2024, and his dream could soon come true.

    Here, the PA news agency looks at some other multi-talented sports stars.

    Denis Compton (cricket and football)

    Compton played 75 Test matches for England, making his debut in 1937 aged 19 and scoring his first century the following year against Don Bradman’s touring Australian side.

    He had made his Arsenal debut in 1936 and went on to win the league title in 1948 and FA Cup in 1950 with the Gunners, the same year in which he helped Middlesex win the County Championship.

    Babe Didrikson Zaharias (athletics, golf)

    Zaharias also excelled at basketball and baseball, but initially made her name in track and field, winning two gold medals and one silver in the 1932 Olympics in Los Angeles.

    Zaharias won the javelin comfortably, took the 80 metres hurdles in a world-record time and finished equal first in the high jump before losing the title when her technique was deemed illegal.

    A latecomer to golf, she won more than 50 titles, including the US Women’s Open three times, and co-founded the LPGA.

    Lottie Dod (tennis, golf, archery)

    Lottie Dod remains Wimbledon’s youngest women’s singles champion, winning the first of her five titles at just 15 years and 285 days old in 1887.

    Later turning her attention to golf, she won the 1904 British Ladies Amateur title and four years later won a silver medal in archery at the Olympic Games in London, where her brother Willy claimed gold in the men’s event.

    Jim Thorpe (athletics, American football, baseball, basketball)

    The first Native American to win gold for the United States in the Olympics, Thorpe won both the pentathlon and decathlon in Stockholm in 1912.

    He lost his titles after it emerged he had previously been paid for playing semi-professional baseball, but they were eventually reinstated by the International Olympic Committee.

    Thorpe played six seasons in Major League Baseball and for six NFL teams, as well as enjoying a less-well documented spell in professional basketball.

    Victoria Pendleton (cycling and horse racing)

    Two-time Olympic champion track cyclist Victoria Pendleton announced in March 2015 that she had set her sights on riding in the following year’s Cheltenham Festival.

    She made her competitive debut in August 2015 and won her first race, on March 2, 2016, on 5-4 favourite Pacha Du Polder at Wincanton.

    Pendleton then achieved her stated aim of riding in the Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham and finished fifth, describing the result as “probably the greatest achievement of my life”.

  • Louis Rees-Zammit reportedly signs for Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs Louis Rees-Zammit reportedly signs for Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs

    Former Wales rugby star Louis Rees-Zammit has signed for Super Bowl champions the Kansas City Chiefs, according to a report in the United States.

    Rees-Zammit is set to join the Chiefs’ practice squad, having impressed during his time on the NFL’s international player pathway.

    The 23-year-old’s signing is expected to be confirmed on Friday, with running back and wide receiver his designated positions.

    The move comes after he visited several NFL franchises, including the New York Jets, Cleveland Browns and Denver Broncos.

    Rees-Zammit’s next goal is to win a place on the Chiefs’ final roster for the new season, joining their star players Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce in targeting a third-successive Super Bowl.

    The Gloucester, Wales and Lions wing stunned the world of rugby in January by quitting the sport in an attempt to secure a contract with an NFL team in 2024.

    That dream moved a step closer when he impressed during last week’s pro day that forms part of the international player pathway.

    Rees-Zammit clocked 4.43 seconds in his 40-yard dash, a 9ft 7in broad jump and 29-inch vertical jump.

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.