The trophy every player in the NFL wants to lift will be hoisted in Arizona a week on Sunday, when the Kansas City Chiefs face the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.
On the preceding Thursday, a host of players and coaches will receive recognition for their individual efforts at the annual NFL Honors ceremony.
The candidates for the awards are furiously debated throughout each season, though this year the field has been trimmed for each prize with the NFL releasing list of finalists for the first time.
In the case of MVP, the top two candidates are the quarterbacks facing off in the Super Bowl, with Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts also going head to head for the game's most illustrious award.
But who does Stats Perform's advanced data say should be the recipients of the prizes on offer at Symphony Hall in Phoenix? Here we name our award winners for 2022, including one not among the finalists who'll be on the red carpet next week.
MVP: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Though these are regular-season awards, Mahomes' heroics on one leg in the AFC Championship Game were the perfect illustration of why he is the most valuable player in the league.
Even when physically impaired by a sprained ankle, Mahomes can produce magical plays through the air and on the ground in the biggest moments, and this season he has elevated a supporting cast shorn of the downfield threat of Tyreek Hill.
Only Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills averaged more yards over expected in true passing situations than Mahomes' 1.66 (minimum 100 such plays). Mahomes, though, had the edge in terms of accuracy, delivering a well-thrown ball on 82.1 per cent of his pass attempts, outperforming both Allen (79.7%) and Hurts (81).
Surpassing 5,000 passing yards and 40 passing touchdowns in a single season for the second time in his career, Mahomes was the best regular-season player in the NFL in 2022, and the reality is it wasn't especially close.
Offensive Player of the Year: Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders' acquisition of Adams in a blockbuster trade with the Packers did not produce the team results they desired in 2022, but individually his debut season with Las Vegas ranked as one of the finest of his career.
Adams' 14 receiving touchdowns led the NFL and, though his 1,516 receiving yards trailed Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill, his combined open percentage across man and zone coverage of 52.18 was superior to both Jefferson and Hill.
With 10 touchdown receptions of 20 yards or more in 2022, Adams was the NFL's most explosive receiving threat in a season where he once again reaffirmed his status as one of the finest route-runners of his generation. The Raiders may want to forget this season in a hurry, but Adams' campaign was one well worth remembering.
Defensive Player of the Year: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs
This award will almost certainly go to Nick Bosa of the San Francisco 49ers next week, but there's a strong case for Jones as a more impactful defender on a down-to-down basis in 2022.
Indeed, Jones' pass rush win rate of 58 per cent and his run defense win rate of 72.7 per cent outstrip those of Bosa, who finished a season in which he led the NFL in sacks (18.5) with a pass rush win rate of 51.4 per cent and 63.6 per cent run block win rate.
Like his quarterback, Jones shines when the situation is at its most pressurised, with his ability to create pass rush working on the interior and off the edge making him a ceaseless nightmare for opposing offensive lines. If the Chiefs are celebrating under confetti in Arizona next Sunday, Jones will likely have been a big reason why.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
Sample size be damned! Purdy not only kept the 49ers afloat after Jimmy Garoppolo joined Trey Lance in heading to the sideline with a serious injury, but helped the offense improve as San Francisco won all five of his regular-season starts as part of a 10-game winning streak to end the 17-game campaign.
Albeit undoubtedly aided by the cavalcade of offensive talent at San Francisco's disposal and the play-calling of head coach Kyle Shanahan — Purdy threw to an open target on 84.7 per cent of his attempts — the last pick in the 2022 draft piloted at an offense that was remarkably efficient in expected passing situations.
Purdy averaged 1.2 yards over expected in true passing situations, fifth among quarterbacks with at least 100 such plays.
Other rookies may have played well for a longer period, but in terms of level of influence on his team's performance, no first year offensive player matches Purdy, who unfortunately now faces a long recovery after tearing an elbow ligament on the first offensive series of the Niners' NFC Championship Game loss in Philadelphia.
Defensive Rookie of the Year: Sauce Gardner, New York Jets
Ahmad 'Sauce' Gardner backed up his ostentatious nickname by quickly establishing himself as one of the league's premier defenders and a lockdown corner at the highest level.
Gardner lost just 19 of his 92 matchups in man coverage and 24 of his 92 in zone. His combined open percentage allowed of 18.8 was bettered by only four defenders across the entire NFL.
In addition to his remarkably impressive coverage skills, Gardner showed a knack for finding the football in the air, registering a league-leading 20 pass breakups.
If he can improve on his interception tally of two, Gardner will be in the Defensive Player of the Year discussion in the coming years.
Comeback Player of the Year: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
From the forgotten man whose hopes of becoming a starter in the NFL looked to be over, to the most accurate quarterback in pro football.
Smith led all quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts with a well-thrown rate of 87.1 per cent, improbably guiding a Seahawks team that appeared to be rebuilding to a playoff berth.
The former New York Jet also had the best passer rating (125.8) on throws of at least 21 air yards among all signal-callers with at least 10 such attempts. Smith threw for 13 touchdowns and one interception on his 52 attempts of that distance.
Smith unexpectedly emerged as the answer at quarterback for the Seahawks in the wake of the Russell Wilson trade. With a better ecosystem around him in 2023, he could be the leading man for a true contender.
Coach of the Year: Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers
Brian Daboll and Doug Pederson deserve a great deal of credit for transforming also-rans into playoff teams in short order, while Nick Sirianni's case is an extremely compelling one after turning the Eagles into the favourite to win the Super Bowl next week.
But for a combination of overcoming adversity and leading a Super Bowl-contending team, no coach can compete with Shanahan.
Shanahan calmly navigated his team through the stormy waters of losing not one by two starting quarterbacks during the regular season, putting Purdy in a position to succeed, with the rookie's readiness and the support he received from the NFL's best defense a testament to the 49er head coach's ability to assemble a top-tier staff.
Winning 13 games, 15 when counting the pair of playoff victories, in the circumstances the 49ers faced on offense is a remarkable achievement. San Francisco finished the season first in overall Efficiency Versus Expected, doing so after being forced to turn to Purdy is a feat worthy of Coach of the Year recognition.
Edge rusher Hendrickson reportedly requests trade from Bengals
A day before the NFL draft, one of the league's best edge rushers has requested a trade.
Three-time Pro Bowler Trey Hendrickson has asked to be traded from the Cincinnati Bengals on Wednesday, according to Adam Schefter of ESPN.
Hendrickson, who is set to make $14.8million this season and $15.8million in 2025, is reportedly seeking a long-term deal - something that hasn't been worked out with the Bengals.
His request to be traded comes at an intriguing time with the draft set for Thursday, as another team could be looking to make a deal with Cincinnati for the established pass rusher.
The 29-year-old is coming off a career year, registering a personal-high 17 1/2 sacks to tie with Jacksonville Jaguars linebacker Josh Allen for the second most in the league.
Hendrickson's 16 tackles for loss were tied for 10th in 2023, and his 53 sacks since the start of the 2020 season rank third behind T.J. Watt (62) and Myles Garrett (58).
A third-round pick by the New Orleans Saints in 2017, Hendrickson signed with the Bengals in 2021, and has been named a Pro Bowler in each of his three seasons in Cincinnati.
Hendrickson's request for a trade comes a little more than a month after wide receiver Tee Higgins asked to be traded.
Higgins, who had the franchise tag placed on him by the Bengals on February 26, did say earlier this month, however, that he intends to play for Cincinnati in 2024.
Fellow Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase had the fifth-year option on his rookie contract picked up on Wednesday.
Chase, the 2021 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year, has 268 receptions for 3,717 yards and 29 touchdowns in his first three seasons - the team leader in each category since 2021.
Detroit Lions WR St. Brown gets $120M extension
The Detroit Lions have locked up one of their most important players for the foreseeable future by agreeing to a reported four-year, $120 million extension with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown.
St. Brown, who was entering the final season of his rookie contract, confirmed the news Wednesday with a video message on his Instagram account.
"I can't wait. I'm here, four more years!," St. Brown announced.
One of the NFL's most productive receivers since entering the league as a fourth-round draft pick of the Lions in 2021, St. Brown will now be among the highest-paid players at his position. NFL.com reports the contract, which runs through 2028, includes $77 million in guaranteed money for the largest sum ever for a wide receiver.
The deal's $30 million average annual value is tied for the highest among wide receivers, matching the four-year, $120 million extension Tyreek Hill received from the Miami Dolphins in 2022.
St. Brown earned first team All-Pro honours with a brilliant 2023 campaign in which he finished in the NFL's top three in receptions (119) and receiving yards (1,515) and recorded a career-high 10 touchdown catches in 16 games.
The 24-year-old added 22 catches for 274 yards and a touchdown in three post-season games to help the NFC North champion Lions advance to the conference title game for the first time since 1991.
St. Brown's 315 career receptions are the third-most by any player in NFL history through his first three seasons, eclipsed only by Minnesota Vikings star Justin Jefferson's 324 from 2020-22 and Michael Thomas' 321 with the New Orleans Saints from 2016-18.
The two-time Pro Bowler is also one of just three receivers in league history with 90 or more catches through his first three seasons, joining Thomas and Odell Beckham Jr. (2014-16).
Liverpool line up Feyenoord coach Slot as Klopp replacement
Arne Slot appears to be at the front of the queue to replace Jurgen Klopp as Liverpool manager.
Klopp confirmed in January that he would be leaving the Reds at the end of the season.
Xabi Alonso, who has led Bayer Leverkusen to their first Bundesliga title, was swiftly established as a leading candidate to take the helm at Anfield, where he starred as a player for the Reds between 2004 and 2009.
The 42-year-old, however, is staying put in Germany, and Liverpool's search for Klopp's successor has taken them to Feyenoord's door.
Slot has been previously linked to jobs in the Premier League. Leeds United wanted to appoint him last season before their relegation to the Championship, while he was targeted by Tottenham before they appointed Ange Postecoglou.
The Dutchman intimated when linked with Spurs: "A normal next step would be to go abroad and I've always said that the best league in the world is the Premier League."
Ideally, Liverpool will be aiming for a coach who can come close to replicating Klopp's style of play, and in particular has a flair for working with and developing young players.
Slot has enjoyed fantastic success in Rotterdam. He became Feyenoord head coach in December 2022, after leaving AZ, and went on to win the Eredivisie title in 2022-23, having reached the Europa League final in the previous season.
The 45-year-old has a 64.4 per cent win record from 146 games in charge, winning 94, drawing 29 and losing just 23.
His Feyenoord team have scored 329 goals, an average of 2.2 per match, conceding 147 in return. Slot's points per game is a hugely impressive 2.13.
Feyenoord are, though, set to relinquish their Eredivisie crown, as they trail leaders PSV by nine points. They have, however, won the KNVB Cup this term.
As there is no break clause in the Dutchman's contract, it has been reported that a compensation fee in the region of €10million (£8.5m) could prise him away from Feyenoord.
Sporting CP boss Ruben Amorim is another coach who has been heavily linked with the Liverpool job, albeit he is reportedly in talks with West Ham.
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