NFL

NFL Talking Point: What were the top trade deadline takeaways?

By Sports Desk November 04, 2022

The 2022 trade deadline day proved a historic one for the NFL.

Teams struck 10 deals on Tuesday prior to the 16:00 EST deadline, with a total of 12 players traded, the most ever on deadline day.

None were of the level of the San Francisco 49ers' blockbuster trade for Christian McCaffrey on October 20.

However, there were still several deals that will have significant short and long-term impacts for some of the franchises involved.

So what can we glean from the hive of activity at the deadline? Stats Perform dug into the advanced data around the trades to answer that question.
 

Dolphins crank up pressure on opponents, and Tua

The Miami Dolphins made the headline move of trade deadline day, sending a package that included the 2023 first-round pick they acquired from the 49ers to the Denver Broncos for edge rusher Bradley Chubb.

It is a move aimed at improving the Dolphin defense's ability to better complement an offense that fired on all cylinders in their Week 8 win over the Detroit Lions.

Miami recovered from 14 points down to beat the lowly Lions 31-27, Tua Tagovailoa producing five passing plays of at least 20 yards in a single game for the third time this season.

Yet the Dolphins might not have needed such heroics from their quarterback had the defense been better equipped to keep the Lions at bay in the first two quarters.

The Dolphins are allowing successful plays on 47.7 per cent of passing downs, well above the league average of 41.1, and have tallied just 14 sacks for negative yardage this season, tied for 20th in the NFL.

Chubb's arrival brings the Dolphins a high-ceiling pass rusher who already has 5.5 sacks, eight quarterback hits, four tackles for loss and two forced fumbles in 2022.

His 32 pressures are more than every other Dolphins defender save for Jaelan Phillips, who has racked up 41, the fourth-most in the NFL, in a strong second season.

The hope will be that pairing Phillips and Chubb will greatly improve the defense's capacity to create negative plays and remove some of the onus from a high-powered offense.

That offense has a new name in the backfield for the second half of the season. The Dolphins traded running back Chase Edmonds to the Broncos, before sending a fifth-round pick to the 49ers for Jeff Wilson Jr, who reunites with former team-mate Raheem Mostert in Miami.

Wilson's departure was always a possibility after the 49ers struck their blockbuster trade for McCaffrey, but he should prove an excellent complement to Mostert.

He can excel at both zone and gap-scheme runs and has proven effective at picking up yards with less than ideal blocking. Among backs with at least 50 carries, Wilson is 11th with 3.37 yards per rush on runs where there is a disruption by a defender.

With a strengthened pass rush and an apparent upgrade in the backfield, Tagovailoa's support system looks to be improved following the trade deadline, but that will only heighten the scrutiny on him if he cannot turn a 5-3 start into a playoff berth.
 

Lions have long way to go

If their 1-6 record didn't already make it obvious, Detroit's decision to trade tight end T.J. Hockenson to NFC North rivals the Minnesota Vikings hammered home the point that the Lions still have a lot of rebuilding to do.

Detroit received a 2023 second-round pick and a 2024 third-rounder in exchange for Hockenson, a 2023 fourth-round pick and a conditional 2024 fourth-rounder.

It is a move that sees them part with a tight end that was a Pro Bowler as recently as 2020 and who has been an efficient receiver in 2022.

Hockenson is averaging 15.2 yards per reception, the most among tight ends, with Detroit's willingness to part with him reflective of how much they value acquiring draft capital for a team that appears further away from competing than many thought heading into the season.

While the struggles on the field may put them in position to land their quarterback of the future, the Lions are clearly in need of more resources to improve a defense that has allowed a play success rate of 46.1 per cent, the second worst in the NFL, and continues to struggle to create pressure or cover in the secondary.

The beneficiaries of the Lions' need to amass picks are the 6-1 Vikings, who can work in Hockenson as a replacement for Irv Smith Jr. after he was lost for eight to 10 weeks with an ankle injury.

It was not clear in which direction the Vikings were headed after a sea change in the front office and at head coach after missing the playoffs last season, but the Lions were thought to be on an upward trajectory following an impressive offseason.

That assessment has proven misguided, with these two teams' divergent paths enabling the Vikings to enjoy the advantages of having another offensive weapon as the Lions are left wondering how long it will take for them to be in a position to be buyers at the deadline.
 

Chicago has faith in Fields

The Chicago Bears were also a seller, sending linebacker Roquan Smith to the Baltimore Ravens on Monday having also dealt pass rusher Robert Quinn to the Philadelphia Eagles.

Unlike the Lions, however, the Bears were in the business of adding to their roster, striking a deal that serves as an illustration of their belief in second-year quarterback Justin Fields.

After receiving a second and a fifth-round pick for Smith, the Bears parted with a second to acquire wide receiver Chase Claypool from the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Claypool's worth was clearly not depreciated by a downturn in his production in terms of scoring from his rookie year. He scored 11 touchdowns (nine receiving, two rushing) in 2020 but has just three from scrimmage since.

Yet Claypool has excelled at winning his matchups with covering defenders this season, with his open percentage against man coverage of 42.42 prior well above the average for wide receivers of 36.32.

That points to the problem in recent years being the Steelers' offense, which has struggled to target him downfield amid its deficiencies at the quarterback position. Claypool's average depth of target of 9.8 yards this season is below the league average of 10.4.

But a partnership with Fields, who has been starved of receiving talent in Chicago, could be one that gets Claypool back on his previous trajectory.

Last week against the Dallas Cowboys, Fields was accurate on 90.9 per cent of his throws while averaging 9.5 air yards per attempt. His season-long average of 9.64 is fourth among quarterbacks with at least 100 passes this season.

If Fields sustains that downfield accuracy, it could see Claypool re-emerge as the deep ball-winner he was in his rookie season.

Though they have traded other assets for picks, the Bears feel Fields has shown enough to be worthy of their faith he can blossom into Chicago's franchise quarterback and are backing him to revitalise Claypool while inspiring further strides for an offense that has made definitive progress in recent games.

Related items

  • Broncos reportedly trade for Jets QB Wilson Broncos reportedly trade for Jets QB Wilson

    Zach Wilson has a chance to restart his career in a new setting after the Denver Broncos reportedly traded for the former starting quarterback from the New York Jets on Monday, according to NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport.

    The Broncos are also acquiring a seventh-round pick in this year's NFL draft, and the Jets will receive a sixth-rounder.

    New York will also pay part of Wilson's $5.5million salary next season.

    Wilson arrives in Denver after never living up to expectations with the Jets after the franchise selected him second overall in the 2021 draft.

     

    He went 3-10 as a rookie in 2021, and things didn't improve in 2022, leading to his benching.

    The Jets had seen enough and decided to move on from Wilson, trading for Aaron Rodgers prior to the 2023 season. Wilson, though, got another chance to start after Rodgers tore his Achilles on his first drive with New York in the season opener.

    He was unable to take advantage of that opportunity, however, throwing for eight touchdowns and seven interceptions in 12 games in 2023. His 77.2 passer rating ranked 30th out of 32 qualifying QBs last season.

    In 34 career games, he has completed 57.0 per cent of his passes for 6,293 yards with 23 TDs and 25 picks.

    Among the 30 quarterbacks with a minimum of 700 pass attempts since 2021, Wilson ranks last in completion percentage and QB rating (73.2), and 29th in both touchdown passes and yards per attempt (6.34).

    In Denver, he'll likely get a chance to compete for the starting QB job after the Broncos released Russell Wilson in early March.

    The only other quarterbacks on Denver's roster are Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci, but the team could also decide to select one in Thursday's draft.

  • Arteta hails Arsenal resilience as crucial Chelsea clash looms Arteta hails Arsenal resilience as crucial Chelsea clash looms

    Mikel Arteta has praised Arsenal for showing resilience during a difficult period and described his players as a "joy to work with" ahead of a crucial week in the Premier League title race. 

    All three title contenders – Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City – are in action twice this week, with the Gunners taking on Chelsea and Tottenham in two huge London derbies.

    They returned to the top of the table with Saturday's 2-0 win over injury-hit Wolves, but with City possessing a game in hand, the destination of the trophy remains out of their hands. 

    Following a difficult few days in which Arsenal surrendered control of the title race and exited the Champions League against Bayern Munich, Arteta was delighted with their response at Molineux. 

    "If you look at the amount of games we have played in the last few weeks, the type of games we have played, their effort is unquestionable and the results are something else," Arteta said.

    "It's a joy to work with them, and it makes us realise we want to be involved in the big competitions, fighting for the Champions League, fighting for the Premier League with the level that it requires."

    Chelsea's ambitions, meanwhile, are limited to securing qualification for either the Europa League or the Europa Conference League, with their hopes of silverware being dashed on Saturday. 

    They were guilty of spurning several golden opportunities in their 1-0 defeat to City at Wembley Stadium, with their wait for a first trophy under the Todd Boehly regime being extended.

    Mauricio Pochettino, though, is choosing to take the positives from that game as the Blues bid to draw level with Newcastle United and Manchester United in the table on Tuesday.  

    "Now we need to take the positive things from the game," Pochettino said. "This group of players needs these types of moments and games.

    "Now is the time to finish the season in the best way and then see how we can do better next season."

    PLAYERS TO WATCH 

    Arsenal – Leandro Trossard

    Trossard scored in October's reverse fixture as Arsenal fought back from 2-0 down to clinch a 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge, and he has provided an invaluable source of goals from the left wing in recent games, with Gabriel Jesus struggling.

    The former Brighton and Hove Albion man is enjoying his most prolific Premier League campaign, with nine goals, and only Bukayo Saka (14) has netted more for the Gunners this term.

    Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson

    Jackson missed several clear-cut chances as Chelsea failed to make the breakthrough against City at Wembley on Saturday, and he is perhaps running out of chances to show he can be the Blues' long-term solution in that number nine role.

    Jackson's 10 Premier League goals this season have come from a total of 13.98 expected goals (xG), giving him an underperformance of -3.98. Only Dominic Calvert Lewin (-5.98) and Darwin Nunez (-4.1) have underperformed their underlying numbers by a greater margin.

    MATCH PREDICTION – ARSENAL WIN

    Arsenal have only lost one of their last eight Premier League games against Chelsea (five wins, two draws), going unbeaten through their last four against them. That is their longest such streak versus the Blues since they went 19 matches against them without defeat between 1995 and 2005.

    Chelsea are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League games (four wins, four draws) and have scored multiple goals in each of their last six. However, that run could come to a halt at the Emirates, with Arsenal possessing a strong record in the biggest games this term.

    City and Liverpool have already left north London defeated this season, and Arsenal have not lost back-to-back home Premier League games since April 2022. Chelsea should be competitive, but the Gunners cannot afford to miss this chance to pull clear of their rivals. 

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Arsenal 51%

    Chelsea 22.5%

    Draw 26.5%

  • Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta

    Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.

    The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.

    That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.

    Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.

    “I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.

    “What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”

    On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.

    “I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”

    Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.

    PLAYERS TO WATCH

    Wolves – Matheus Cunha

    Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).

    Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

    Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.

    MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN

    Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).

    Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.

    Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.

    Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.

    OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

    Wolves – 21.5%

    Arsenal – 51.2%

    Draw – 27.3%

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