Last season, the Buffalo Bills looked to have cracked the code of how to topple the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Bills beat the Chiefs 38-20 in Arrowhead Stadium in Week 5 of 2021, averaging 8.1 yards per play to Kansas City's 5.0, frustrating Patrick Mahomes and intercepting him twice in a display that suggested the balance of power in the AFC was about to shift.
Yet it proved a false dawn, with the Bills unable to contain Mahomes in the Divisional Round of the playoffs and famously failing to prevent him leading the Chiefs down the field in 13 seconds for a game-tying field goal that forced overtime in arguably the finest playoff game in NFL history.
While that game confirmed Josh Allen as existing on Mahomes' level among the NFL elite at quarterback, throwing for 329 yards and four touchdowns, it also was an irritating illustration of the Bills' lack of closers on defense.
The Bills pressured Mahomes 23 times but managed to sack him just twice, a dreadful conversion rate that prompted Buffalo to hand a six-year, $133million contract to 33-year-old edge rusher Von Miller.
Though Buffalo can get out of the contract much earlier, the length of the deal handed to Miller raised eyebrows, with the Bills making a substantial bet on the veteran who played a critical role in the Los Angeles Rams' Super Bowl run following his mid-season trade from the Denver Broncos maintaining the level that helped him claim a second ring.
Few are likely to be questioning his deal in the wake of his performance on Sunday, however, as 371 days on from their win at Arrowhead last season, Miller helped the Bills repeat the feat, recording two sacks in a Buffalo performance that will substantially boost hope they have a formula to defeat Kansas City in the postseason.
On offense, the Bills leaned on one of the most devastating quarterback-wide receiver connections in the NFL.
Allen targeted Stefon Diggs 13 times in the Bills' 24-20 win, hooking up with the former Minnesota Viking on 10 occasions as Diggs finished with 148 receiving yards and a touchdown.
Though not all of his targets resulted in a completion, Diggs delivered reinforcement, not that it was needed, of his status as one the game's top separation artists. He registered a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a play where he is targeted, on 12 of those 13 targets. Only the two receivers who posted 100 per cent burn rates, Tyler Boyd (six targets) and Juju Smith-Schuster (five) fared better than Diggs in that sense in Week 6 (min. five targets).
The volume Diggs receives as Allen's top target and the consistency he shows in creating separation makes for a frightening combination for defenses, and he proved too much for the Chiefs on the Bills' go-ahead drive, Allen finding Diggs for two first-down receptions, including one that set Buffalo up at the Kansas City 28-yard line.
With the Chiefs running a two-high safety zone coverage, Diggs displayed his route-running acumen by attacking the leverage of cornerback Jaylen Watson at the top of his downfield route to buy himself critical extra cushion as he settled in the soft spot in the zone before making a superb adjustment at the catch point.
Allen created extra time for himself by subtly shuffling to his left as Carlos Dunlap pushed the pocket, hanging in there and delivering a high-velocity ball that was further in front of Diggs than intended due to the interior rush from Chris Jones reducing his throwing platform. Diggs put his body on the line by laying out for the ball and survived the contact from Watson and safety Juan Thornhill.
Three plays later, after Allen had remarkably hurdled a defender on a 16-yard rush, he found Dawson Knox on a superbly accurate throw to the endzone to put the Bills ahead for good, the tight end deserving of great credit for the manner in which he worked his way back to the ball at the end of his corner route.
That drive came after Miller had forced the Chiefs off the field with a third-down sack of Mahomes, showcasing his still impressive physical flexibility and his motor to work his way around the corner and past right tackle Andrew Wylie to bring down the quarterback.
And Miller played a critical role in the game-clinching interception that followed on the subsequent drive.
Given Mahomes' exploits in last year's playoff matchup, 64 seconds appeared to be plenty of time for him to drive the Chiefs down the field for a game-winning touchdown following Knox's score.
Miller, though, provided the finishing touch the Bills lacked in the postseason, winning inside with his lateral quickness to get pressure through the B gap, forcing Mahomes into a late throw to Skyy Moore on a crossing route that corner Taron Johnson read all the way, breaking down from his position in the Bills' zone coverage to intercept the pass and end the game.
While the Bills only improved their sack total from the Divisional Round shoot-out by one, Miller's ability to frequently dominate his pass rush matchups at this point in his career had a direct influence on Buffalo knocking off their biggest challenger for the one seed in the AFC and the team most expect them to meet again in the conference title game.
The rapport between Allen and Diggs and the big-play production of Gabe Davis – who followed up his stunning two touchdown-effort against the Pittsburgh Steelers with a 34-yard touchdown reception and leads the league in burn yards per target among receivers with at least 20 targets (16.98) – should ensure the Bills will continue to boast an explosive passing game few in the NFL can rival.
If Miller can supplement that by serving as the closer on a defense that has Pro Bowl talent at every level, the Bills may finally have the recipe to land the knockout blow against the Chiefs when it matters most.
Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.
The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.
That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.
Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.
“I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.
“What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”
On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.
“I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”
Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Wolves – Matheus Cunha
Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.
MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN
Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).
Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.
Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.
Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Wolves – 21.5%
Arsenal – 51.2%
Draw – 27.3%
Fulham v Liverpool: Klopp unconcerned by Salah's scoring form
Jurgen Klopp is not overly worried by Mohamed Salah’s slight dip in form, as the Liverpool manager turned full focus to the Reds’ Premier League title challenge.
A bad week for Liverpool was capped off on Thursday when, despite a 1-0 win over Atalanta, they slumped out of the Europa League 3-1 on aggregate following a heavy defeat at Anfield in the first leg.
That loss on April 11 came three days before a 1-0 home reverse to Crystal Palace, which saw Liverpool’s league title hopes take a dent – they are now two points behind Manchester City with six games remaining.
What has not helped their course is that talisman Salah – who netted an early penalty against Atalanta but squandered a big chance later in the match – has scored just three times in the league since returning from a hamstring injury he sustained while playing for Egypt at the Africa Cup of Nations in January.
Klopp, though, is confident Salah will soon be back at his best.
“I am not particularly concerned,” he said ahead of facing Fulham.
“That’s what strikers do, that’s what happens to strikers, that’s how it is. We have to go through this, he has to go through that. He is one of the most experienced players we have in the squad.
“We will go through that but that’s pretty much all. It’s not that Mo didn’t miss chances before in his life, that’s a part of the game. I am not particularly concerned.”
Reflecting on the task at hand now for his side, Klopp added: “Disappointed that we did not go through [in Europe] but not frustrated or angry.
“Now we can focus on the league and that’s what we will do. We have a few days to recover, we will do that, and then will travel the day after tomorrow to London and will play Fulham, which will be tricky but we will give our absolute all.
“That’s our competition now. I saw a good reaction from my side, we had not a great week last week obviously. This, if we want, was the start for the rest of the season with a good result and a good performance and that’s how we see it.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Fulham – Andreas Pereira
Pereira has been involved in four goals in his last four Premier League appearances (two goals, two assists), with his brace against West Ham more than he had netted in his previous 34 games combined (one).
Indeed, Pereira has more goal involvements than any other Fulham player since the start of last season (seven goals, 13 assists).
Liverpool – Mohamed Salah
Salah may not be firing on all cylinders from a goalscoring perspective, but he is proving to be Liverpool’s creative hub.
Only Martin Odegaard (68) and Bruno Fernandes (59) have created more chances from open play in the Premier League this season than Salah (58). He has created at least four open-play chances in five different games this season, with Roberto Firmino the last Liverpool player to do so more times in one season (10 in 2016-17).
MATCH PREDICTION: LIVERPOOL WIN
The Reds might have had a bad week, but Opta’s model still fancies their chances of returning to winning ways.
Liverpool have scored in each of their last 19 away Premier League matches, the longest current run of any side. That being said, since losing 3-0 to Brentford in their first home Premier League game this season, Fulham have conceded just 13 goals in their last 15 games at Craven Cottage (0.9 per game). With six clean sheets at home so far, the Cottagers last had more in a Premier League campaign in 2010-11 (nine).
Marco Silva’s team have scored 49 Premier League goals this season, having netted 55 last season. The last time the Cottagers scored 50+ goals in consecutive Premier League seasons was in 2003-04 (52) and 2004-05 (52).
However, Fulham have won just one of their last 11 Premier League meetings with Liverpool (D2 L8), winning 1-0 at Anfield in March 2021.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Fulham – 20.85%
Liverpool – 53.1%
Draw – 26.1%
Inter Miami v Nashville SC: Smith not looking forward to Messi reunion
Nashville SC coach Gary Smith is not looking forward to his team facing Lionel Messi for the third time this year, with the Inter Miami star fit and firing ahead of Saturday's MLS clash in Fort Lauderdale.
A hamstring issue caused Messi to spend almost a month on the sidelines before he returned with a goal in Miami's 2-2 draw with the Colorado Rapids earlier this month.
The Argentina great was then on the scoresheet again last weekend, as Miami ended a five-game winless run with an entertaining 3-2 success against Sporting Kansas City.
With Messi also scoring in both legs of a CONCACAF Champions Cup triumph over Nashville in March, Smith is sick of the sight of the eight-time Ballon d'Or winner.
"I'm a little bit disappointed that Lionel Messi has gotten himself back into tip-top sharp form as we come back into town again!" Smith said.
"I think that what we can safely say is when he's in the group, there's a very, very different feel and look and inspiration about that team."
Nashville are winless in three games since beating Charlotte FC 2-1 last month, with Daniel Gazdag's last-gasp strike condemning them to a 2-1 defeat against the Philadelphia Union last time out.
Smith believes his team are at least giving themselves a chance of picking up results, adding: "When we've got our best group on the field — and we need to have our best group on the field — we're very competitive."
Miami's win over Kansas City ensured they will enter the weekend top of the Eastern Conference standings, and boss Gerardo Martino is pleased to see them setting the pace.
"Being first in the standings is comforting, especially with a long week ahead," Martino said. "It was very important for us to get out of that rut of getting ties, losses, and making mistakes."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Inter Miami – Lionel Messi
Messi has been involved in at least one goal in each of his first five league games of the season, the second time he's done so in his career, having achieved the feat in six straight matches with Barcelona to begin 2013-14 in LaLiga.
The Argentine has also managed at least one goal involvement in each of his eight appearances for Miami across all competitions in 2024, including two goals and one assist in two matches against Nashville.
Nashville SC – Jacob Shaffelburg
Shaffelburg has assisted each of Nashville's last two MLS goals, one in each of their last two matches.
Previously, he had only recorded one assist in his first 40 regular-season matches with Nashville. Will his purple patch continue in Florida?
MATCH PREDICTION – INTER MIAMI WIN
Nashville have only managed one win in their last 15 away games against MLS opponents across all competitions (six draws, eight defeats).
That run, which stretches back to June 2023, includes a draw and a loss against Miami, who are also unbeaten in five straight head-to-head meetings between the teams (two wins, three draws).
Last week's 3-2 win over Sporting KC was the 11th time Miami have scored three or more goals in their 22 games with Messi making an appearance, across all competitions. They have only scored three or more goals on 15 occasions in their 134 all-time games without the Argentine. He should be involved on Saturday, and that makes them favourites.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Inter Miami – 36.6%
Nashville SC – 33.8%
Draw – 29.6%
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