The final grand slam of the season is already upon us, with the US Open getting going on Monday.
Flushing Meadows will welcome the best and brightest as they aim to light up New York City, where home favourite Coco Gauff will be the defending women's singles champion.
She clinched her maiden major title at Arthur Ashe Stadium last year, overcoming Aryna Sabalenka 2-6 6-3 6-2.
Gauff will be the third seed at this year's tournament, with Sabalenka second and world number one – the fearsome Iga Swiatek – rated as the favourite.
With the help of Opta data, we look into the likely challengers for this year's title.
Will Swiatek cap stellar year?
Swiatek has won 55 matches in 2024, which is the most of any player on the WTA Tour. She also has the longest winning streak in Tour-level events this season, too, having reeled off 21 straight victories.
The all-conquering Pole has won six Tour-level events this term – the United Cup, Qatar Open, Indian Wells Open, Madrid Open, Italian Open and French Open. Unsurprisingly, Swiatek also has the best win percentage of any player across 2024 (88.7%, having lost just seven of her 62 matches).
Swiatek – who clinched bronze at the Paris Olympics – has won all six finals she has been involved in this term, becoming the third player this century after the Williams sisters to triumph in their first six finals of a season across multiple years (2022 and 2024).
The 23-year-old holds a record of 79-17 at grand slams, and the best winning percentage of any active player (82.3%). Among players to have started their career in the Open Era, only six players could achieve 80 wins in fewer major matches than Swiatek (97) – Monica Seles (86), Chris Evert (89), Martina Hingis (92), Serena Williams, Steffi Graf (93 each) and Venus Williams (94).
She will face qualifier Kamilla Rakhimova in the first round. Swiatek has won in straight sets in all her previous eight matches against qualifiers or lucky losers, while she is also undefeated in her five first-round ties at the US Open.
In fact, the last time Swiatek lost in the opening match of an event was at the WTA Finals 2021 in Guadalajara. She has played 48 tournaments since then without ever falling at the first hurdle (United Cup and Olympics included).
Among current players with 10+ main draw matches played at the US Open, only Bianca Andreescu (85.7%) and Naomi Osaka (81.5%) have a higher winning percentage at Flushing Meadows than Swiatek (80.0%).
Sabalenka on song
Swiatek and Sabalenka tussled on the clay courts earlier in the season, but the latter has endured a difficult summer swing and had to skip the Olympics.
But she returned to form at the Cincinnati Open, triumphing over Jessica Pegula to claim her second title of the season.
Her first was the Australian Open, and that means Sabalenka could become the first woman to win both hard-court grand slams in the same year since Angelique Kerber in 2016. Indeed, since the Australian Open switched to hard court in 1988, the Belarusian could be the fifth woman to reach both hard-court major finals in successive seasons after Graf (1988-90, 1993-94), Seles (1991-92), Hingis (1997-99) and Victoria Azarenka (2012-13).
Like Swiatek, Sabalenka will take on a qualifier (Priscilla Hon) in round one. She won her previous meeting with Hon, back in Mumbai in 2017. The top two seeds will both face qualifiers in the first round of a grand slam for the first time since the Australian Open 1996 (Seles and Conchita Martinez).
Sabalenka is undefeated in her six first-round ties at Flushing Meadows, while she is aiming to be the fourth player in the Open Era to win the title in Cincinnati and New York in the same season, with Gauff having done just that last year.
Only Swiatek (25) and Emma Navarro (24) have won more hard-court matches than Sabalenka in 2024 (23), while the previous season's runner-up at the US Open has only lost in the first round on one occasion in the Open Era (Pam Shriver in 1979).
Gauff and Pegula the fan favourites
The Olympics ultimately ended in tears and frustration for Gauff, and after reaching the semi-finals of the Australian Open and French Open, her season is somewhat threatening to peter out. Indeed, her only title this year came in the first tournament of the campaign, in Auckland.
Yet as one of four American players since 2000 to win the singles title at the US Open, she will be fiercely determined to retain her crown at Flushing Meadows and will be backed by vociferous home support.
The world number three is not the only home favourite in with a firm chance, though.
Pegula won nine successive main-draw matches, equalling her longest career winning streak, across her campaigns at the Canadian Open and Cincinnati Open, before losing to Sabalenka in the final of the latter tournament.
The sixth seed could become only the fourth player in the Open Era to reach the singles finals at the Canadian Open, Cincinnati Open and US Open in a season after Rosemary Casals (1970), Evonne Goolagong Cawley (1973) and Serena Williams (2013).
The other contenders
Emma Raducanu has not had quite the hard-court swing she would have liked, but the youngster triumphed in New York as a teenager back in 2021, and will be one to keep an eye on.
Jasmine Paolini heads to Flushing Meadows fresh from claiming Olympic gold at Roland-Garros, where she also reached the French Open final earlier this year. The Italian has both hit the most winners (409) and converted the most break points (80) in singles matches at grand slams in 2024.
She will go up against 2019 US Open winner Bianca Andreescu in round one, making the duo the first players to face each other in the women's singles at Roland-Garros, Wimbledon and Flushing Meadows in the same season since Serena Williams and Justine Henin in 2007.
Elena Rybakina, meanwhile, has served the most aces (85) at majors this year.
Then there is two-time US Open champion Naomi Osaka. She will go up against Jelena Ostapenko, and combined with Sofia Kenin taking on Raducanu, it makes this tournament the first time that two former grand slam winners are taking each other on in first-round ties in New York since 2019.
Sinner and Alcaraz to fill void after Nadal retirement
Michael Chang is confident men's tennis is in good hands with Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner, following confirmation of Rafael Nadal's retirement.
Nadal will feature at the Davis Cup Finals for Spain before ending his glittering career next month, becoming the latest of the "Big Four" to walk away from the court.
Roger Federer called time on his career in 2022, while Andy Murray retired after the Paris Olympics earlier this year.
While Novak Djokovic – who is one win away from claiming a 100th Tour-level title – remains the last active player from that iconic quartet, Chang is delighted with the next generation.
"I think it's pretty clear at this point, if you look at the matches of both Alcaraz and Sinner, their games are dominating," 1989 French Open winner Chang told Stats Perform.
"Novak is still playing great tennis and to be able to win the Olympic Games is huge. You know he will still continue to fight for grand slam titles, but the games of these younger players and their confidence on court suggest they will be around for a while, barring any injuries.
"Jannik and Carlos have learned from the previous generation, they learned what it takes to go out and play unbelievable tennis.
"Carlos talks about how he watched these players growing up, how he has learned from them and taken their best qualities to improve his own game, which is very evident.
"They've inspired the younger generation and are well-liked off the court as well.
"Fans can relate to them, they're very humble in nature yet competitive on the court, which is a continuation of that kind of atmosphere and attitude that is really wonderful for our sport of tennis."
Sinner's triumph at the Shanghai Masters on Sunday saw him claim his place at the top of the ATP year-end world rankings, with only Djokovic and Nadal doing so quicker in a season since the modification of those rankings in 2009.
The Italian has won 65 of his 71 Tour-level matches this year, claiming seven trophies, including the Australian Open and US Open.
Alcaraz, meanwhile, won the other two grand slams.
The Spaniard has won all three of his meetings with Sinner this season, and Chang believes this is only the start of a blossoming rivalry that will go beyond the sport as a whole.
"I think they've already begun to do that. Carlos, in particular, is involved in many non-tennis-related activities and I think that will be pretty commonplace for them," Chang added.
"They're young and vibrant, with interests outside tennis, which is great to see.
"I don't think they'll get side-tracked like some players who have done really well in tennis, and then all of a sudden have this modelling contract over here or this and that over there and then all of a sudden, where did their tennis go?
"I don't see that happening with Alcaraz and Sinner. They seem disciplined, focused, and one-track-minded, but they won't shy away from being involved in other pursuits.
"I think they will keep that focus and will be good for our sport."
Nadal's 'unfathomable' French Open record will not be matched, says Chang
Rafael Nadal's dominance on the clay courts remains "unfathomable" and will not be matched in our lifetime, says former French Open champion Michael Chang.
Chang is still the youngest man to win a singles major, doing so aged 17 years and 109 days at the 1989 French Open, but the former professional believes no one will come close to the retiring Nadal.
The Spaniard will bring an end to his storied career after next month's Davis Cup Finals on home soil in Malaga, having managed 22 grand slam titles in total.
A remarkable 14 of those came at the French Open, the most of any player at a single major in history, and Chang cannot see another competitor getting close to Nadal's exploits.
Asked by Stats Perform if another player can dominate like Nadal at Roland-Garros, Chang said: "It's difficult to say. I don't think we'll see anyone as dominant as Rafa on clay in our lifetime.
"His record is unbelievable. For him to win 14 French Opens is unfathomable."
Nadal's unbelievable 96.6% win rate at the French Open (112 wins from 116 matches) is the best of any player at a grand slam event in men's singles.
Indeed, only Novak Djokovic (twice), Robin Soderling and Alexander Zverev have ever beaten the 38-year-old at the tournament.
His 14-0 record in Roland-Garros finals is also the best recorded by anyone at an event in the Open Era, with Chang lauding his dominance on clay, as well as his adaptability on other surfaces.
"He grew up playing on clay in Spain, and being a lefty, for him to know the angles and calculations better than anyone else," Chang added.
"What's amazing is that he's been able to take that style of play and modify it for success on grass and hard courts.
"We've had great clay-court players who couldn't translate that success to other surfaces, but Rafa is not one of them.
"His volleying skills are among the best on tour, which you wouldn't normally say about other Spanish players, except for [Carlos] Alcaraz now."
Only three tournaments have been won more than 10 times by the same player in the Open Era – Roland-Garros (14), Barcelona (12) and Monte-Carlo (11), all by Nadal on the clay.
For that reason, Chang believes Nadal's legacy will leave a long-lasting impression on those who witnessed his greatness on the French clay.
"It is incredible what he has done at the French Open and his passion and love for winning there is incredible. His record speaks for itself," Chang concluded.
Nadal knew the time was right to move on, says Chang
Michael Chang feels Rafael Nadal knew the time was right to move on after confirming his impending retirement.
Nadal announced last week that he would call time on his glittering playing career after the Davis Cup Finals, which will take place in Malaga next month.
The 38-year-old, who has won 22 grand slam titles, with his last coming at Roland-Garros in 2022, has struggled with injury in recent seasons, and has not played a singles match since losing to old foe Novak Djokovic at the Paris Olympics.
Chang, who is the youngest man in history to win a singles major, having clinched the 1989 French Open at the age of 17 years and 109 days, believes Nadal has made the right call.
He told Stats Perform: "I think we all knew he was nearing the end of his career. With the injuries he's had over the past couple of years, he knew it was coming sooner rather than later.
"To be honest, we would have thought that this generation, between Roger [Federer], Rafa, Andy [Murray], and Novak would have retired a few years ago, but their love for the sport is truly amazing.
"Their dedication and competitive spirit really kept them out there for so long, still competing at an extremely high level. It's one thing to be out there and just chugging along, but these guys are still winning grand slams and vying for grand slams.
"Roger and Rafa did it for so long, and obviously, Novak's still going, it's incredible. Rafa has accomplished everything you could in the sport of tennis, and he's unbelievably well-respected in every regard, whether you're a tennis fan or not.
"You would never want to see a champion like that go, but it’s time to move on. You can't play at this level forever, but the times we've had to enjoy him on tour and witness so many unbelievable matches around the world, it's certainly been a joy to watch and witness."
Djokovic (24) is the only man to win more major titles than Nadal, who has won a record 14 French Open crowns.
And while Chang is unsure if Nadal ranks as the greatest of all time, the 52-year-old believes other factors than grand slam titles must come into consideration.
"I think for him to be known as one of the greatest tennis players that we've ever seen is special," Chang added.
"I think there's no question that Novak, as far as results go and titles go and grand slam titles go, there's no question that his results stand above everybody else, but when we think about these great champions, you think about their admirable qualities.
"Rafa's grit, heart, forehand, his ability to move and get around, the mental toughness in intense situations, is remarkable.
"Those are the things we'll remember about him as a tennis player. His interactions with fans and fellow players also show he's extremely well-respected. Those are the qualities we will always remember. I hope he stays involved in the tennis scene because he'll always be a great ambassador for the sport."
When it comes to Nadal's legacy, Chang believes the Spaniard's character is what sets him apart.
He said: "That's one of the reasons he's so admired. All tennis players want to do well; they want to reach number one and win grand slam tournaments, but some players have a more selfish mentality and don't care much about others or what they think.
"Rafa is not like that. He takes time to give back, he takes time for fans, and he appreciates people coming to watch him play. He has a ton of respect for everyone he comes in contact with and because of the way he's conducted himself on and off the court, people admire him as more than just a tennis player.
"Look at what he's done for Spanish tennis, he's inspired the next generations and embraced them. He's been nothing but complimentary towards this new generation of players, like Carlos Alcaraz leading the way."
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