F1 is back: Verstappen and Red Bull could dominate again with Ferrari on the back foot

By Sports Desk March 03, 2023

A new Formula One season is upon us and the 2023 campaign will be the longest in the history of the elite motorsport class.

The number of races is rising to 23, with Las Vegas joining the show, though drama will not be limited to the track.

Two seasons ago, the controversial conclusion to the campaign in Abu Dhabi was a dominant story, while last year saw Red Bull's budget cap breach and an Oscar Piastri fight between Alpine and McLaren, as well as frustrations with governing body the FIA, notably over the drivers' freedom of expression.

Get set for sporting theatre to unfold over the course of the season ahead, though the biggest talking point centres around whether anyone can dethrone Red Bull.

Red Bull gives you wins

Max Verstappen finished at the front in 15 of 22 races last season, setting a record for the most triumphs in a single campaign, and he has won over half of the events in the past two years (25 wins from 44 races).

While pre-season testing never offers a full indication of what lies ahead, Red Bull's strength was still evident and the consensus is that the defending champions will begin the campaign with an advantage over their rivals.

 

If that gap cannot be reduced, the biggest threat to a third consecutive crown for Verstappen may come from team-mate Carlos Perez. Should that happen, tempers may flare as they did in Sao Paulo in November when Verstappen refused a team order to allow the Mexican through.

One aspect that may provide hope to Red Bull's rivals is the punishment issued for the budget cap breach, which included a 10 per cent reduction in aerodynamic testing allowance for 12 months. While it came too late to have a major implication on the overall develop of this year's car, it could restrict the team's ability to fix any issues that arise.

Ferrari's fight to the front

A season that offered so much promise for Ferrari last term ultimately fell away through mistakes in race strategy and engine failures, the latter of which resulted in the team having to run in a low-power mode to avoid further woes.

Charles Leclerc certainly has the ability to go head to head with perennial rival Verstappen, who he has raced since his junior days, while Carlos Sainz got his long-awaited maiden F1 win at Silverstone last year.

The appointment of Fred Vasseur as team principal, replacing Mattia Binotto, hands the Scuderia an experienced head on the pit wall and may result in fewer questionable calls in race strategy.

Ferrari are confident they can mount a challenge this season and, even though Leclerc has conceded Red Bull may start with an advantage, he believes the Prancing Horse can respond.

"The target is still [to win the title]. Even if we are starting a bit of the back foot compared to them in terms of performance, I'm sure we can come back," Leclerc told Sky Sports.

Mercedes on a mission

Any hopes of a Mercedes revival in 2023 appear to have stalled already, with testing performances suggesting the team may have to look over their shoulders at those chasing from behind rather than competing at the top.

Mercedes' design continues to divide opinion, with a zero-pod approach being vastly different to their rivals and leading to questions about whether they have stuck to their guns out of pride rather than sporting merit.

With Lewis Hamilton behind the wheel, there is always a chance and the Briton will be determined to come back and add to his record 103 race wins having failed to secure a victory last season – the first campaign in his career when he has not registered a win.

The seven-time world champion was outperformed by team-mate George Russell last season, however. Russell secured a maiden race win in the penultimate race and offered consistency throughout the campaign.

Best of the rest

The biggest surprise of the testing weekend in Bahrain was the pace shown by Aston Martin who, with the addition of Fernando Alonso, have a driver who could mount a serious threat to the bigger guns on the grid.

Though a third world title for the Spaniard may be a stretch, regular podiums and dethroning one of the big three in the constructors' championship is certainly an achievable goal.

At Alpine, great care will be taken to ensure French compatriots Pierre Gasly and Esteban Ocon do not find themselves butting heads, with a frosty relationship over the years, while McLaren have already admitted they missed their development targets and start on the back foot as a result.

Andreas Seidl, now at the helm of Alfa Romeo-Sauber, enters with high expectations ahead of the team's transition into Audi in 2026, while AlphaTauri's long-term future continues to be questioned despite assurances Red Bull will not sell their second-string team.

Expect the season to also see further rumblings regarding new additions to the grid, with Porsche and Andretti among those pushing to join.

As ever, there is plenty to watch out for in F1 and from the first corner to the last there are likely to be surprises along the way.

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  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • Guenther Steiner knows Red Bull’s dominance will come to an end at some point Guenther Steiner knows Red Bull’s dominance will come to an end at some point

    Guenther Steiner has warned Red Bull their dominance of Formula One will end just as Mercedes’ did.

    Red Bull have won the last three constructors’ championships with Max Verstappen completing a hat-trick of drivers’ titles, in the process breaking the strangleholds imposed by Mercedes and Lewis Hamilton in previous years.

    Seven-time world champion Hamilton has endured a miserable start to the new season with his car lasting just 17 laps of Sunday’s Australian Grand Prix as team-mate George Russell crashed out to leave the Brackley and Brixworth-based team 71 points adrift of Red Bull after just three races and pile the pressure on boss Toto Wolff.

    But asked about their difficulties, former Haas team principal Steiner said: “Obviously they are struggling a little bit at the moment. For me, they are a good team, I think they’re a good team. It’s just like it’s competition.

    “Mercedes was dominating for a long time and you cannot always be dominating, you shouldn’t expect that. Now we say Red Bull is dominating – it will come to an end, like Mercedes came to an end.

    “A lot of people are saying, ‘Mercedes is not doing well’ – Mercedes is still in the top four at the moment or top five, they just need to do a little bit better. But it’s how competitive this sport is and you cannot take anything for granted.

    “Obviously Toto would love to dominate the sport forever, but nothing is forever. I think it’s good for the sport and shows also how quickly it goes up and down.

    “Mercedes is still doing OK, they’re still scoring points. Sometimes you forget there are 10 teams and not only three which are allowed to win. I think all 10 should be allowed to win and those are the things you learn when you are outside of the sport like I am now.”

    Hamilton, who is in the midst of his worst start to a campaign, will join Ferrari ahead of the 2025 campaign, leaving a huge gap to plug.

    Steiner, speaking after being announced as an ambassador for May’s Miami Grand Prix, was asked if Carlos Sainz – winner in Australia just 16 days after undergoing surgery for appendicitis – would be at the top of his list if he was in charge at Red Bull or Mercedes.

    He replied: “Toto has no urgency to sign anybody because everybody is waiting until that seat is filled, but I’m sure a lot of people are speaking to Carlos at the moment.”

  • Barbadian F2 sensation Maloney eyes improvements after third-place finish in Melbourne Barbadian F2 sensation Maloney eyes improvements after third-place finish in Melbourne

    Barbadian driving sensation Zane Maloney is focused on consistently improving his performances, as he seeks to continue building on his sweep of the Formula Two season-opening events.

    Maloney’s comments followed another positive weekend in Melbourne, Australia, where he again made the podium after finishing third in the feature race, on the heels of a 10th place finish in the sprint a day earlier.

    This latest podium adds to the 20-year-old’s sprint race and feature race victories on the opening weekend of the season in Bahrain.

    “Satisfied but of course we just need to keep making steps forward. I think we have showed the last three rounds that Bahrain wasn’t a fluke. We have had the pace each round. We just need to keep working on it,” Maloney said in a post-race press conference.

    “I think qualifying from my side is much better than last year. I just need to keep improving that. We have always been fast in the race and made good moves, so we just need to keep going. Everyone is catching up, so we need to keep performing well,” he added.

    In the feature race in Melbourne, Maloney, who drives for British team Rodin Motorsport, finished third behind 19-year-old French-Algerian driver Isack Hadjar and 20-year-old Estonian Paul Aron.

    Two weeks ago in Jeddah, Maloney trailed in seventh in the feature and just missed out on a podium place in the sprint race when he ended fourth.

    He was left ruing his luck again last Saturday when a costly error left him down the field instead of near the podium.

    “Should have been a podium. From my side, I made a big mistake which lost me lots of places. But the second half of the race was really good from my side, so I am pleased with that. Happy to be back on (the podium after a) bit of a chaotic race. For sure the pace has been good all year so far. I think we have proved that each round. It is cool to have a clean Feature Race,” Maloney reasoned.

    The Bajan sensation’s next assignment will be the May 16-18 Grand Prix at Imola.

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