Heading into Week 7 of the NFL season, the picture is still delicately poised as the race for the playoffs begins to heat up.
The Philadelphia Eagles (6-0), Buffalo Bills (5-1) and Minnesota Vikings (5-1) are all on a bye this week, along with the Los Angeles Rams (3-3), which provides an opportunity for the chasing pack to close the gap.
Both New York franchises are on the road as they look to extend their winning records, the Giants in Jacksonville to face the Jaguars while the Jets tussle with the Denver Broncos, and elsewhere, the Kansas City Chiefs have a stern test in San Francisco against the 49ers.
With all that and more on the cards, Stats Perform has delved into the numbers to preview this weekend's action.
New York Giants (5-1) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (2-4)
The Giants may have season form on their side against the Jaguars but they are the only team to never win a road game in Jacksonville (0-3), who are one of two franchises the Giants have not won against away from home alongside the Baltimore Ravens.
Victory against the Ravens in Week 6, coming on home soil, saw the Giants secure a fifth win of the season and become the first NFL team this term to surpass their win total from last year (four). Their largest wins increase in the Super Bowl era was from one in 1966 to seven in 1967.
Daniel Jones' form has been key to that improvement, completing at least 70 per cent of his passes in back-to-back games for the first time in his career. He has the opportunity to become only the second Giants QB in the Super Bowl era to do so in three straight games, alongside Eli Manning in September 2018 (minimum 20 attempts each game).
The Jaguars' 2-4 record does not paint the full picture of their season, though, with a +24 point differential standing as the sixth best in the NFL and the best for a team with a losing record through six games since the 2010 Los Angelese Chargers (+31, 2-4).
In last week's defeat to the Indianapolis Colts, Trevor Lawrence completed 20 of 22 passes (90.9 per cent) to become the youngest player (23 years, 10 days) to ever record 90 per cent accuracy from at least 20 passing attempts in a game.
Kansas City Chiefs (4-2) @ San Francisco 49ers (3-3)
Kansas City face the 49ers boasting victories in four of the last five matchups, including a 31-20 triumph in Super Bowl LIV, but are 1-5 in San Francisco – with their only win there coming in the teams' first-ever clash in 1971.
The Chiefs have not been strong defensively, allowing at least 20 points in all six games to begin the season and stand as one of four teams who are yet to allow fewer than 20 in any game this season.
That bodes well for the 49ers, who are 2-0 at home this season and have allowed fewer than 10 points in both of those games, though they have never held their opponent to fewer than 10 points in the team's first three home games of any season.
The potential return of Nick Bosa will be of concern for Patrick Mahomes, after he missed last week due to a groin injury, as the 49ers are pressuring quarterbacks in 48.4 per cent of passing plays with Bosa on the field (122 plays) compared to 34.9 per cent without him (86 plays).
New York Jets (4-2) @ Denver Broncos (2-4)
The Denver Broncos are in need of a major improvement in performance and hosting the Jets will provide encouragement, having shut them out in two straight home games, including 26-0 last year.
The Jets have reason to be optimistic themselves, however, with last week's 27-10 victory against the Green Bay Packers securing their first three-game winning streak since 2019 and their first three-game road winning streak in a single season since 2010.
Meanwhile, the Broncos fell to a 19-16 overtime defeat to the Chargers in Week 6 and suffered their second straight overtime loss, with no team ever having played three straight overtime games in NFL history.
Russell Wilson found himself under scrutiny again last week, completing only 15 of his 28 pass attempts for a completion percentage of 53.6. In total this season, he has a 58.6 completion percentage, having entered the year with a lowest single-season completion percentage of 61.3 in 2017.
Elsewhere…
The Pittsburgh Steelers lost their first six road games as a franchise against the Miami Dolphins but head to Florida in Week 7 with a 6-3 record in the past nine meetings. However, they have not had a quarterback start at the Dolphins other than Ben Roethlisberger since Kordell Stewart in 1998.
Each of the last 11 games between the Seattle Seahawks and the Chargers have been decided by a single-digit margin, with the only longer streak in NFL history being a 14-game stretch between the Colts and Houston Texans from 2014 to 2020.
Aaron Rodgers stands 0-3 in road games against the Washington Commanders, with the Green Bay Packers 2-8 in their last 10 games in Washington – their victories coming in 1968 and 2004.
Tom Brady faces the Carolina Panthers with 15 completions in each of his last 39 games for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, tying Brady's career-best streak with 39 straight games for the New England Patriots from 2011 to 2013.
The San Francisco 49ers have won the Christian McCaffrey sweepstakes, acquiring the All-Pro running back from the Carolina Panthers on Thursday for four draft picks, according to multiple reports.
Off to an ugly 1-5 start, the Panthers had been considering trading McCaffrey, and they found a partner in the 49ers. Carolina will receive picks in the second, third and fourth round in the 2023 draft, and a fifth-round selection in 2024.
The 26-year-old McCaffrey ranks fourth in the NFL with 670 scrimmage yards, amassing 393 on the ground and another 277 through the air.
He joins a 49ers team that lost starting running back Elijah Mitchell to a sprained MCL in the season opener and quarterback Trey Lance to a season-ending broken ankle the next week.
Despite the significant injuries, the 49ers are 3-3 and in a three-way tie for first place in the NFC West with the Seattle Seahawks and defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
The versatile McCaffrey gives quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo another weapon to an offense that features receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle.
The eighth overall pick of the 2017 draft, McCaffrey’s best season came in 2019, when he became the third player in NFL history to reach 1,000 yards rushing and receiving in the same season. He finished with 1,387 rushing yards and 1,005 receiving yards and 19 total touchdowns to tie for the league lead.
Injuries, however, limited him to just 10 total games in 2020 and ‘21, but he’s suited up for all six games this year.
McCaffrey becomes the second Carolina player traded to an NFC West team this week after the Arizona Cardinals acquired wide receiver Robbie Anderson on Monday.
Belief is a powerful emotion.
Athletes from a variety of sports over the years have spoken about the power of self-belief that allowed them to overcome the odds and prevail.
In the world of fantasy football, where the stakes are substantially lower, it is easy to lose faith after a few bad weeks given the season is so short.
Still, even as the losses mount, it's important to not get discouraged, trust in your line-up decisions and, most importantly, remember that it's just a bit of fun.
Not everything is going to go right for all your players in every game, but with Week 7 on the horizon, Stats Perform has gone through the numbers and identified four offensive players and a defense deserving of your faith for the upcoming slate of games.
Quarterback: Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Detroit Lions
Prescott is finally set to return to the lineup after Cooper Rush kept the Cowboys firmly in the mix during his absence with a fractured thumb.
There may some reticence to roll with Prescott in fantasy in his first game since the season opener.
Against the Lions, there's little reason to have such concerns. Their defense is allowing 7.37 yards per pass play, the second most in the NFL, while only the Cleveland Browns have conceded more offensive touchdowns than Detroit's 18.
Game flow could work against Prescott putting up a huge fantasy performance if the Dallas defense allows the Cowboys to build a big lead, but there's no reason to expect him to struggle on his return.
Running Back: Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Chargers
Walker backed up his explosive performance against the New Orleans Saints in Week 5 with a strong showing in Week 6 as the Seahawks knocked off the Arizona Cardinals.
He racked up 97 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries versus Arizona and now gets to face a Charger run defense that has displayed no improvement despite heavy offseason investment.
Only the New York Giants (5.61) are allowing more yards per rush than the Chargers (5.56). Walker already has seven rushes of 10 yards or more this season and, if you have this exciting rookie on your roster, you can afford to believe he will deliver in a substantial way in LA.
Wide Receiver: Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Samuel was kept relatively quiet as the 49er offense endured a difficult day in Atlanta last week, failing to score in the second half of their 28-14 loss to the Falcons.
Even so, he still managed seven catches for 79 yards and his fantasy managers who may be worried about a drop-off from the San Francisco attack should stay calm.
The 49er run game sputtered in Atlanta, gaining just 50 yards, but it looked at its best on the two carries Samuel received out of the backfield.
Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan last season turned to putting Samuel in the backfield to give his offense a spark and it produced stunning results. Don't be surprised to see him do the same here.
With the Chiefs level with the Lions with 18 offensive scores allowed, a varied role for Samuel on Sunday could spell a highly productive effort on an offense that may benefit from the return of All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams.
Tight End: Robert Tonyan, Green Bay Packers @ Washington Commanders
The Green Bay offense is in dreadful shape, with some questioning whether it is broken beyond repair following a dismal defeat to the New York Jets at Lambeau Field.
Aaron Rodgers has called for the Packers to simplify their attack in the wake of that loss. Any huge schematic changes seem unlikely but what is probable is that Rodgers will focus on the few targets he trusts.
One such target is Tonyan, who was last week targeted 12 times, catching 10 passes for 90 yards.
With Randall Cobb on the sideline through injury, Allen Lazard and Tonyan will likely be Rodgers' favoured weapons in the passing game. Whether he can engineer an upturn in Green Bay's fortunes is open for debate, but Tonyan's place in the pass-catching hierarchy for the Packers gives him plenty of fantasy value against a Commanders defense that has allowed 12 passing touchdowns, the second-most in the league.
Defense/Special Teams: New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
Is your faith in the New Orleans defense shaken by the Cincinnati Bengals' comeback against the Saints? Well here come the Cardinals to make everything all better.
The Cardinals managed nine points against a Seahawks team that has allowed 163 this season. Only the Lions have given up more.
On a per-play basis, the Steelers are the sole team to put up fewer yards (4.77) than the Cardinals (4.81).
The Saints' defense is not as fearsome as in days gone by, but it has the benefit of facing an utterly anaemic offense in Week 7 and is worthy of some belief as a result.
Kyle Shanahan felt the San Francisco 49ers had opportunities to overcome their swathe of defensive injuries and avoid defeat to the Atlanta Falcons.
The 49ers were favoured to move 4-2 with victory in Atlanta, but instead fell to a 28-14 defeat at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.
Starting cornerback Charvarius Ward suffered a groin injury in the loss, a week on from fellow starter Emmanuel Moseley sustaining a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the blowout win over the Carolina Panthers.
On defense, the Niners entered the game without star pass rusher Nick Bosa (groin), Javon Kinlaw (knee), and Arik Armstead (foot), as well as linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair (knee) and safety Jimmie Ward (hand). Edge rusher Samson Ebukam battled injury throughout the game.
The Falcons took advantage of the 49ers' plethora of absentees, quarterback Marcus Mariota completing 13 of his 14 pass attempts and accounting for three touchdowns.
Mariota is the third player in NFL history to record at least two touchdown passes, one rushing touchdown and a completion percentage of 90-or-higher (minimum 10 attempts) in a single game, joining Ryan Fitzpatrick (September 24, 2020) and Frank Ryan (December 12, 1964).
The 49ers entered the game allowing just three yards a carry but gave up 168 yards rushing against the Falcons.
San Francisco fell 14-0 behind but recovered to tie things up at 14-14 through a pair of Brandon Aiyuk touchdowns.
"I think we had our chances to overcome," Shanahan said. "We made it harder on ourselves. I'm not taking anything away from them.
"Yeah, that's a big deal missing those people, but we had every chance to still pull that off."
Tight end George Kittle echoed his coach's sentiments, adding: "You could use [injuries] as an excuse but we're the San Francisco 49ers."But I've got to give them props for dictating the entire game in the run game. We were getting knocked back, me included, and we've just got to be better up front in the front seven.
"It [the injuries] does suck. You wish you have your guys out there, but at the same time, I feel like for me, I put a lot of pressure on myself in the fact that I command the defense.
"I'm the one who should get all 11 lined up at all times regardless of who's out there, and everybody else who's coming into the game, they've got to be ready to go no matter what. It's all about being prepared. Regardless of the circumstance, whoever's out there we've got to make sure we're playing to our standard."
The 49ers have consistently battled injuries during Shahanan's tenure, overcoming them to reach the Super Bowl in the 2019 season and the NFC Championship Game last term. In 2020, the Niners finished 6-10 after a year in which they were decimated by injuries and COVID issues.
"The five years I've been here, this isn't anything new. I've seen it," said Warner. "At some point you've got to adjust and guys have got to be ready to go no matter the situation. We've got to find ways to win regardless of the circumstance."
Kenny Pickett could not finish his second NFL start after going into concussion protocol, but the Pittsburgh Steelers ensured their quarterback could celebrate an unlikely first win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Pickett – the first QB off the board in the 2022 NFL Draft – started for the first time in last week's big defeat to the Buffalo Bills.
But the rookie bounced back in some style against Tom Brady, securing a narrow lead before exiting the game midway through the third quarter. The Steelers protected that advantage to win 20-18.
Pickett had thrown his first career touchdown pass to Najee Harris on Pittsburgh's first drive.
A sloppy end to the first half allowed the Bucs to close the gap, but they headed in at halftime without having scored a TD – a first for a Brady team against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh lifted their game again following the restart, trading field goals before a hit on Pickett saw him leave the game, and was then ruled out.
Mitch Trubisky picked up the baton, though, connecting with Chase Claypool for another TD before Brady and Leonard Fournette belatedly responded.
A successful two-point conversion would have tied the game with time left for the Bucs to win it, but Brady's attempt was batted away, and Trubisky saw out only a second Steelers win of the year.
Another New York defeat for Packers on return to Lambeau
The Green Bay Packers gave up a home game to play in London for the first time in franchise history last week, losing to the New York Giants. And a return to Lambeau Field did little to lift Aaron Rodgers and Co., who fell to 3-3 with a 27-10 home loss to the New York Jets.
In fact, the Packers crowd appeared to turn on their team when a blocked punt gifted the Jets – now 3-0 on the road to start a season for the first time since 2010 – a two-TD lead their opponents could not recover from.
The Giants built on their upset of the Packers by doing the same to the Baltimore Ravens. They had trailed Green Bay 20-10 at halftime in Week 5 and were this time down by the same score in the fourth quarter, recovering for a 24-20 win to move to 5-1.
The Atlanta Falcons lost in Week 5 but also had momentum to carry into a matchup with the San Francisco 49ers after a 15-point fourth quarter against the Bucs. Following five straight games decided by seven points or fewer, the Falcons coasted to a 28-14 success.
Ryan extends Jags' miserable road run in AFC South
The Jacksonville Jaguars have not won a road game against an AFC South rival since 2017, a losing sequence of 13 games heading into Sunday's trip to the Indianapolis Colts.
It appeared as though Trevor Lawrence was to lead the Jags to a long-awaited win when the Colts trailed by a point at the Jacksonville 33 with just 23 seconds to play.
But Matt Ryan, having earlier passed Dan Marino (61,361) to climb to seventh all-time for passing yards, completed a pivotal TD pass to Alec Pierce to prolong the Jags' misery.
Through five weeks of the 2022 season, the San Francisco 49ers have the best defense in the NFL.
The Niners have given up just 4.01 yards per play so far this year, the fewest in the league, while only they and the Dallas Cowboys have conceded fewer than 20 points in every game.
San Francisco's points totals allowed in 2022 – 19, 7, 11, 9, 15 – tell a tale of dominance, with Christian McCaffrey's rushing touchdown against the 49ers only the second the defense has conceded since giving up three in a rainstorm in their season opener to the Chicago Bears.
The 49ers' average of 12.2 points allowed is tied with that of the Buffalo Bills for the league's best. They have given up just 12 points in the first half, while no other team has conceded fewer than 35.
No defense has allowed fewer explosive plays of 10 yards or more than the 49ers (45), and San Francisco have forced a league-leading 44 negative plays from opposing offenses.
The Niners have given up four yards or more on only 42.9 per cent of first downs, the best ratio in the NFL, and they have allowed a conversion on just 30 per cent of the third-down attempts they have faced. The Tennessee Titans (27.1) and New Orleans Saints (29.9) are the only two defenses who can claim to have fared better in that regard.
Simply put, the 49ers' defense is dominating in every facet. The Niners do not give up explosive plays with regularity, excel at putting opponents behind the eight-ball by creating negative plays and limiting yardage on first down, and have little difficulty getting off the field on third down.
DeMeco Ryans' defense was already among the NFL's elite last year, but what has catapulted it to championship-calibre unit that has the potential to be the foundation of a deep San Francisco playoff run?
The perennial star of the show for the 49er defense is the front, which is teeming with depth at edge rusher and boasts several players who can thrive rushing from that position and from the interior.No team has registered more quarterback sacks than San Francisco (21) and the 49ers' 91 pressures trail only the Cowboys (95) and Philadelphia Eagles (92).
The athleticism of linebacker Fred Warner, who displays extraordinary precision in zone coverage and can run with wide receivers downfield, is also critical to San Francisco's defensive success.
Talanoa Hufanga's breakout second season has deservedly attracted substantial attention, the former fifth-round pick quickly becoming a walking highlight reel at the safety position, recording five tackles for loss, five pass breakups, one sack and two interceptions, including a game-clinching pick-six against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 4.
Hufanga has demanded attention with his enthralling hard-hitting and all-action brand of football, but just as crucial to the Niners and deserving of similar acclaim has been the play of cornerback Charvarius 'Mooney' Ward.
The 49ers' big-ticket free-agent acquisition in the offseason, San Francisco gave Ward a three-year, $40.5million contract with a view to him becoming the missing piece for a frequently maligned cornerback group.
Ward has unquestionably delivered to this point with his performances, combined with the emergence of Hufanga, helping transform the 49ers' secondary from an area of concern to a clear strength.
Arguably no 49er defender has done more to prevent big plays than Ward, who has been burnt – which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a play where he is targeted – on 10 of his 29 targets for a burn rate of 34.5 per cent. That is the fifth-best among corners targeted at least 20 times.
His big play rate, which tracks burns for 20 yards-plus or burns for touchdowns, of 18 per cent is 13th for his position. When wideouts have got in a position to catch the ball when going against his coverage, they have frequently seen it knocked away from them. Trevon Diggs (nine) is the sole defender to have produced more pass breakups than Ward's eight.
Through his strength in coverage and his proficiency for making plays on the ball, Ward has given the 49ers a lockdown corner they can rely on who offers a defense defined by its diversity even more flexibility.
Indeed, Ward's ability to consistently shut down wide receivers in man coverage is an asset to the Niners when they want to be more aggressive on defense, with San Francisco thriving through such an approach in the 24-9 beatdown of the Rams, in which they blitzed Matthew Stafford and an injury-hit Los Angeles offensive line on 30.4 per cent of dropbacks and were rewarded with seven sacks and 21 pressures.
Ward has also elevated the play of those around him in the cornerback room. Fellow starter Emmanuel Moseley has the third-best burn rate (31.8 per cent) among cornerbacks and nickel Deommodore Lenoir has given up a big play on 15 per cent of his targets, a rate bettered by just four corners.
The 49ers will now have to do some reshuffling in the secondary, however, after Moseley saw his season ended by a torn ACL suffered in Sunday's 37-15 rout of the Carolina Panthers.
Moseley's injury will mean either Lenoir shifting to the outside or one of Jason Verrett, Ambry Thomas or rookie Samuel Womack taking over at the spot across from Ward.
Without Moseley, the opposite side of the field to Ward may be viewed as a potential vulnerability in a defense that has presented none this campaign.
But San Francisco's defensive backfield is better equipped to deal with a serious injury than it was a year ago. The 49ers' misfortune may have robbed them of the top-tier starting cornerback duo Ward and Moseley looked like becoming, but their astute investment in the former has ensured the Niners' secondary is now one opposing offenses have significantly less hope of succeeding against.
Sean McVay accepted he made "some bad play calls" and declared the Los Angeles Rams brought defeat upon themselves as they fell to the San Francisco 49ers.
Monday night's 24-9 loss saw the Rams fail to capitalise on several touchdown opportunities, with McVay pointing to "self-inflicted wounds".
San Francisco's Deebo Manuel caught six passes for 115 yards and a highlight-reel touchdown, and when the Rams were still in the game, at 17-9 in arrears, quarterback Matthew Stafford was intercepted by Talanoa Hufanga. That pick-six summed up the Rams' night.
"I liked the way our guys battled, they competed and got it to a one-possession game," said McVay.
"But the story of the night from an offensive perspective was self-inflicted wounds, above-the-neck errors where we're not doing things we're capable of, and I expect us to be better than that.
"Defensively, I know we continue to battle, we gave ourselves a chance. We can tackle better, you credit them for making the plays, and I thought special teams hung tough, but overall we didn't do enough to win the football game.
"I'm not going to make any excuses. We've got to play better. A lot of it was just things where guys we were counting on didn't do what they were supposed to do."
McVay took his share of the blame, saying: "I put us in some bad spots.
"However you want to cut it, we have to be better collectively, coaches and players. There's no other way around it and no way I know how to fix it other than go back to work."
The Rams will face the Dallas Cowboys, who are on a three-game winning streak, in Week 5.
"Everybody needs to be able to look inward," said McVay. "In the red area, to have three good drives and only come away with nine points in a game that was a back-and-forth battle like that, that ended up being the difference.
"And when you do make it a one-possession game and you've got some momentum, a couple of game first downs and we throw an interception for a touchdown on a screen, those are the things that don't help you win games."
Deebo Samuel described his tackle-breaking abilities as "second nature" after his outstanding 57-yard catch-and-run touchdown helped the San Francisco 49ers beat the Los Angeles Rams.
Samuel provided the standout moment of an accomplished 49ers performance on Monday, as they prevented the Rams from scoring a single touchdown in a dominant 24-9 home win.
Jimmy Garoppolo looked destined to throw an interception late in the second quarter, only for Samuel to turn a fine catch into a touchdown as he skipped past several Rams challenges.
The wide receiver caught six passes for 115 yards as the 49ers moved to 2-2 for the season.
"My mentality, it's just me and the ball out there. What happened after that is something that I work on all the time and I got in the box," Samuel said.
"Every time I get the chance to get the ball in my hands, it's just my mentality of trying to make it a big play, but it's just second nature to me right now.
"When I go out there it's just me and the ball. Breaking tackles is just something I do all the time."
Head coach Kyle Shanahan said of Samuel's run: "It was impressive.
"At first it looked like a pick. It was close, that corner was teeing off on it.
"We had to wait a little bit because the guy inside, they ran into each other. We had to hesitate just a hair for Deebo to come down with that throw, then he did the rest.
"When you get the ball in his hands, I think he's shown he does some pretty cool things."
The San Francisco 49ers kept the Los Angeles Rams from scoring a single touchdown as they secured a convincing 24-9 home win on Monday night.
Deebo Samuel was the star on the offensive side of the ball for the 49ers, catching six passes for 115 yards and one highlight-reel touchdown.
After Jeff Wilson Jr scored the first touchdown of the game for the 49ers, Samuel caught a short pass on third-down and ended up breaking three tackles, gaining 50 of the 57 yards on the play after the catch to put his side up 14-6 heading into halftime.
A missed field goal in the fourth quarter at 17-9 meant the Rams would get a chance to tie the game, but a poor showing from quarterback Matthew Stafford was punctuated with a 52-yard pick-six as he was intercepted by Talanoa Hufanga.
Fittingly, the 49ers forced another turnover on the next drive as well, capping off a spectacular performance from their defense in a game where quarterback Jimmy Garropolo only needed to complete 16 passes.
Samson Ebukam and Nick Bosa both collected a pair of sacks each as the 49ers brought down Stafford seven times, and Bosa was credited with five hits on the quarterback in total, while the Rams had one as a team.
Despite the poor offensive game from the Rams, top receiver Cooper Kupp and tight end Tyler Higbee had big days, with Kupp catching 14 of 18 targets for 122 yards while Higbee caught 10 of 14 targets for 73 yards.
Week 4 of the NFL season could well have a substantial bearing on how the playoff race shakes out.
Through three weeks, the 2022 campaign has delivered excitement at almost every turn, and there are plenty of high-stakes matchups to whet the appetite this weekend.
There are conference championship and Super Bowl rematches on the docket, as well as extremely intriguing matchups between some of the season's early pacesetters.
But which of the games on the schedule are likely to deliver the best contests? Stats Perform can provide some insight in that regard, using its SmartRatings as a guide.
SmartRatings is an AI-based platform that provides excitement ratings for sporting events, teams and players. The excitement scale, ranging from 0-100, is powered by complex algorithms that are predicated upon six primary variables: pace, parity, novelty, momentum, context and social buzz.
The weight of each variable is dynamic and adapts as a season progresses. The excitement scale translates to the following general sub-ranges: 0-39 (Dull Game), 40-64 (OK Game), 65-84 (Good Game), 85-100 (Great Game).
So, let's take a look at the three games rated among the most exciting on the Week 4 slate and break down the key matchups that could decide them.
Buffalo Bills @ Baltimore Ravens
SmartRating: 67
Win probability: Buffalo Bills (55.3%)
Key Matchup: Lamar Jackson vs. Bills linebackers
The Bills only need to look to their AFC East rivals the New England Patriots for a reminder of what can happen when a defense fails to defend 2019 MVP Lamar Jackson effectively.
Last week, Jackson threw for 218 yards and four touchdowns with one interception while rushing for 107 yards and a touchdown on just 11 carries. He became the first player in Ravens history to throw at least three touchdown passes in each of the team's first three games of a season.
Limiting his efficiency on the ground will be critical for the Bills' hopes of outscoring a potent Ravens offense. On designed runs, Jackson is averaging a remarkable 13.47 yards per carry, with his threat as a runner naturally helping fuel the Ravens' play-action game. Baltimore's average of 10.85 yards per play on play-action is well above the league average of 9.15.
In Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds, the Bills possess two athletic and intelligent linebackers. They will need to display their physical gifts and their awareness to help limit Jackson's impact with ball in hand and ensure they do not bite too hard against play-action and open large throwing windows for him to attack. An evenly matched clash between two AFC heavyweights promises to be a classic, and Milano and Edmunds may have a crucial say in it tilting in the favour of Buffalo.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
SmartRating: 75
Win Probability: Kansas City Chiefs (54.7%)
Key Matchup: Travis Kelce vs. Antoine Winfield Jr.
The Chiefs are unlikely to find much joy targeting the Buccaneers outside corners, Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, who have each enjoyed excellent starts to the season as they look to gain a measure of revenge for their blowout loss to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV.
Instead, Patrick Mahomes will probably look to his most trusted weapon, All-Pro tight end Kelce, to help him get the Chiefs back on track following their shock loss to the Indianapolis Colts last weekend.
Kelce has run 24 routes from the slot this season compared to nine from his in-line tight end spot. Having consistently thrived in the 'power slot' role throughout his career, Kelce will hope to do significant damage from that position while going against one the premier young safeties in the league.
Winfield has spent 63 percent of his snaps this season in the slot but has conceded a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup on a play where he is targeted, on seven of his 11 targets. He has given up a big play on four of those targets.
With Kelce registering a burn on 18 of his 24 targets, the matchup looks to be in his favour. Winfield must find a way to ensure it isn't if the Bucs' defense is to provide yet more critical support to an offense that continues to struggle.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
SmartRating: 85
Win Probability: Los Angeles Rams 53.0%
Key Matchup: Aaron Donald vs. 49ers' Offensive Line
Even after losing their starting quarterback and All-Pro left tackle to injury, the 49ers are still only seen as slight underdogs in Monday's rematch of last year's NFC Championship Game.
But it is how the 49ers perform up front in the absence of Trent Williams that will likely determine if the Niners can continue their regular-season hoodoo over the Rams.
The Niners have won the last six regular-season meetings with Los Angeles, but the Rams – who finally knocked off their rivals in the game that mattered most – will be confident of ending that streak if Donald and Co. can take advantage of San Francisco sliding Colton McKivitz in at left tackle as Williams' replacement.
Much of that confidence will be based on how Jimmy Garoppolo performs when he is pressured. Among quarterbacks with at least 10 throws under pressure, Garoppolo's well-thrown percentage of 54.5 is the second worst in the NFL.
Donald has already racked up 13 pressures on 40 pass rush snaps and is known for his ability to create pressure from anywhere on the defensive line. McKivitz, right tackle Mike McGlinchey and an extremely inexperienced interior offensive line must deliver their best for San Francisco to avoid falling to 1-3.
Nathaniel Hackett hopes Russell Wilson's game-winning drive against the San Francisco 49ers will be the start of his success with the Denver Broncos.
Wilson piloted a struggling Denver offense through the first two games of the season, an underwhelming start to his Broncos career coming after they traded five draft picks, including two first-rounders, and three players to acquire him from the Seattle Seahawks.
Then handed a five-year, $245million extension by the Broncos, Wilson lost in Week 1 on an emotional return to Seattle, before the Denver offense was jeered and mocked by its own home fans in Week 2 in an unconvincing win over the Houston Texans.
Wilson and the Broncos struggled for most of their win over the 49ers against a ferocious San Francisco defense that held the quarterback to 184 yards passing and Denver to just 3.7 yards per play.
But the 49ers' ineptitude on offense in Jimmy Garoppolo's first start since Trey Lance's season-ending injury saw San Francisco waste a host of opportunities to take command, the Niners going one for 10 on third down.
And Wilson finally capitalised on their profligacy in the fourth quarter, showing some of his trademark elusiveness that some believed may be waning to lead a 12-play, 80-yard drive and give the Broncos a decisive 11-10 lead.
Garoppolo was intercepted on the subsequent drive, and a Jeff Wilson Jr. fumble then sealed the game for Denver.
"Russell has come to a new state, a new organisation, with 10 brand new guys in the huddle," Hackett told NBC Sports' Peter King for his Football Morning in America column.
"It's a completely new look, new team. He's jumped in here and tried to make it as familiar as he could. On that winning drive, he said, 'I'm comfortable, I'm gonna use my legs here, I've got to make this happen'. He did. Hopefully that's the start of it for him."
Hackett's game management came under severe scrutiny in the opening two weeks of his tenure as Denver head coach, his struggles in that regard encapsulated by the home crowd counting down the play clock in Week 2 after his offense had struggled to get the ball snapped in time on several plays.
Ahead of Week 3, Hackett brought in veteran assistant coach Jerry Rosburg to help with gameday decisions.
Asked if doing so felt embarrassing, Hackett said: "No. For me, I felt empowered that I was able to make a decision. Hey, let's fix it. I'm the leader of the team. Let’s do it.
"This was the first time, the past two games, that I felt I was hurting my team. Did I have enough info? I don't know. But I knew the setup wasn't right. I needed help to make the tough decision."
Mike McGlinchey says it will be "impossible" for the San Francisco 49ers to replace Trent Williams after he suffered an ankle injury during an 11-10 defeat to the Denver Broncos on Sunday.
Left tackle Williams did the damage when he was blocking Broncos defensive end Bradley Chubb during the third quarter and Denver defensive lineman D.J. Jones fell across his right leg.
On the same play, quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo stepped out of the end zone for an ultimately costly safety.
Niners head coach Kyle Shanahan revealed after the game nine-time Pro Bowler Williams, who was replaced by Jaylon Moore, was likely to have sustained a high right ankle sprain.
Right tackle McGlinchey said: "[Trent is] as important to our football team as anybody is. Colton [McKivitz] stepped up, and he's had an unbelievable last year and some change, and he's ready for that.
"Jaylon Moore is capable of playing in that role. We have guys to fill the spot, which is a good thing; but obviously, it's impossible to replace a Trent Williams, and that hurts our football team, for sure."
Garoppolo said: "It's tough. Trent's a warrior. Hopefully, he bounces back fast, but it's always tough when you lose a guy like that, especially the leadership that he brings to this team.
"The poise and everything that he brings, it will be tough to replace that. But we've got to."
Shanahan felt the 49ers could have no complaints after a loss at Empower Field at Mile High that left them at 1-2 early in the season.
"We had our opportunities, but we definitely didn't do enough offensively in the second half," he said.
"I thought we made way too many mistakes. We had our opportunities in the first half, where I thought we should have been a lot more than we were.
"We missed those. Came back in the second half and I thought the defense kept it going, offense had a chance early and started out with a fumbled snap, then we never got it going after that."
Russell Wilson was central to the game-winning drive as Melvin Gordon III went from zero to hero with a late touchdown as the Denver Broncos edged the San Francisco 49ers 11-10 in Sunday Night Football.
Gordon atoned for two fumbles with a one-yard touchdown run with 4:10 remaining, capping a 12-play, 80-yard drive for the Broncos' only TD of the game.
Denver QB Russell Wilson completed 20 of 33 attempts for 184 yards with no touchdowns or interceptions, with a dart to Kendall Hilton in the game-winning drive. The Broncos went three-and-out nine times, yet still won to improve to 2-1.
Kareem Jackson recovered Jeff Wilson Jr's fumble with 1:05 to secure the victory as 49ers stand-in QB Jimmy Garoppolo tried to drive his side within field-goal range.
Garoppolo, making his first start of the season with Trey Lance out with a season-ending ankle injury, had one touchdown pass on 18-for-29 passing for 211 yards, with one interception. He also gave away a self-inflicted safety in the third quarter, helping the Broncos cut the deficit to 7-5.
The 49ers, who lost left tackle Trent Williams to an ankle injury, had gone ahead in the first quarter when Garoppolo found Brandon Aiyuk with a three-yard strike.
Robbie Gould's fourth-quarter field goal padded the 49ers lead out to 10-5, but Wilson was clutch late, leading to Gordon's TD.
Is two games enough of a sample size to glean pertinent information about an NFL team's prospects? Probably not.
Has that ever stopped anyone from making definitive statements about teams and the potential outcome of their season? You already know the answer to that one.
But one thing nobody -- not even the loudest talking head -- can say for certain is that they know who the frontrunner is in the NFC.
In the AFC, plenty are already falling over themselves to crown the Buffalo Bills. An extremely compelling case can be made for the Chiefs and maybe even the Los Angeles Chargers if they can keep Justin Herbert from further injury.
The NFC, though? That's an extremely tough conference to decipher at this early stage.
That is not to say there aren't standout teams. To the contrary, there are six that look to have an excellent shot of representing the NFC in the Super Bowl as they all reside in the top 10 of Stats Perform's power rankings.
Two of them will face off at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers host the Green Bay Packers in what could be the final meeting between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers, who met in the NFC Championship Game two seasons ago. The Super Bowl-champion Los Angeles Rams will visit the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of last year's title game in Week 4.
But which of that group has the best shot? Stats Perform has used its advanced data to examine the case for each of the six.
Philadelphia Eagles
Record: 2-0
Power ranking: 1
The Eagles have firmly lived up to their offseason hype so far, with Jalen Hurts piloting an efficient offense that is the most explosive in the NFL through two weeks.
Indeed, the Eagles are fourth in yards per play on offense while, prior to Thursday's game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns, no team in the NFL had produced more plays of 10 yards or more than Philadelphia's 39.
A.J. Brown, their blockbuster draft-day trade acquisition, has quickly built a superb rapport with Hurts. The former Tennessee Titans wide receiver has registered a burn, which is when a receiver wins his matchup with a defender on a play where he is targeted, on 14 of his 21 targets and is averaging 8.2 burn yards per route (the league average is 3.6).
The threat Hurts provides in the run game has helped Philadelphia rack up 189.5 yards per game on the ground, second only to the Browns. While a small sample size, the Eagles' early success on the ground is illustrative of just how difficult they are to stop with the diversity of their attack.
There's more reason for doubt on defense, with a three-interception effort against the Minnesota Vikings in which the Eagles allowed only seven points following a 38-35 shootout with the Detroit Lions. Yet a very favourable schedule may not see any defensive failings properly tested until Week 12 against the Packers and allow Philadelphia to move into prime position to compete for the NFC's top seed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Record: 2-0
Power ranking: 4
Tampa Bay's average margin of victory across two games is 13 points. The Bucs eased past the Dallas Cowboys 19-3 and eventually emerged from a fist fight with the New Orleans Saints as 20-10 victors.
Yet it's tough to declare their start to the season as overly impressive, at least by Brady's lofty standards.
The Bucs have scored only two offensive touchdowns as they have battled injuries at the wide receiver position and struggles on the much-changed interior of the offensive line.
Rather than Brady making a hot start to the season he initially decided against playing, it is the Bucs' defense that has led the way.
There were 182 seconds left in their game with the Saints by the time they surrendered a touchdown for the first time this season, with the Bucs conceding only 4.25 yards per play, the third-fewest in the NFL.
Rodgers and Green Bay will provide an early and stern test of their credentials, but there is evidence to suggest the Bucs will eventually have a recipe for a potential second championship run in three seasons.
For all the protection issues in front of him, Brady has delivered a well-thrown ball on 81.7 per cent of his pass attempts and has thrown just one pickable pass in 60 throws. Given the defense's level of play and the weapons the Bucs still have to return, it stands to reason they will soon be delivering much more complete performances that will greatly enhance their reputation as contenders.
Los Angeles Rams
Record 1-1
Power ranking: 3
Thrashed by Buffalo on the night they raised their Super Bowl banner before having to survive a remarkable late scare against the lowly Atlanta Falcons, the Rams do not look like a team ready to repeat.
They still sit third in the power rankings, but there are plenty of red flags surrounding the Rams in this embryonic season.
It is the pass protection that stands as the most pressing concern, Matthew Stafford was under constant duress in the opener and injuries up front have hurt the Rams' cause further, hindering Stafford to the point where he is averaging almost half a yard under expectation in expected passing situations.
With 58 total points allowed, there are clearly vast improvements to be made on defense, too.
However, Aaron Donald already has a league-leading 17 pressures and Jalen Ramsey came up with the game-clinching interception in the endzone against Atlanta, and that often decisive star power makes the Rams a tough team to count out, especially with a game against an Arizona Cardinals team they have consistently dominated on the horizon in Week 3.
San Francisco 49ers
Record 1-1
Power ranking: 5
The greatest threat to the Rams from inside their own division comes from the team who suffered an injury that would have ended the hopes of most teams in the league.
San Francisco lost quarterback Trey Lance in just his second game of his first season as starter in the 49ers' 27-7 win over the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday.
Yet, by keeping Jimmy Garoppolo around on a restructured contract, the 49ers gave themselves an insurance policy, one that can keep them firmly in the mix even without Lance.
Garoppolo has helped the 49ers to the brink of Super Bowl glory in the 2019 season and the NFC Championship Game last term and, while the Niners' ceiling without Lance is perhaps lowered, the floor of Super Bowl-calibre roster has been raised by the former New England Patriot's return to the line-up.
Though they suffered an upset at the hands of a Chicago Bears in Week 1, the 49ers have one of the most complete rosters in the league and their defense is off to a magnificent start, allowing the second-fewest yards per play (4.08) in the NFL.
It was anticipated the safety position may be a weakness. Instead, it has so far been an unexpected strength, as has an inexperienced and remodelled offensive line that has won 81.6 per cent of its pass-blocking matchups. It will be tough to identify an obvious flaw on this team if the pass protection continues to excel, with the play in the trenches made even more critical because of Garoppolo's long injury history.
Minnesota Vikings
Record: 1-1
Power ranking: 8
Hopes the Vikings could become one of the most dynamic offensive teams in football under Kevin O'Connell were damaged by Monday's 24-7 defeat to the Eagles.
Despite another vintage primetime meltdown from Kirk Cousins, the Vikings have the makeup of a team that could contend to go deep in the NFC playoffs if things break right.
They demonstrated how dangerous O'Connell's offense can be in their opening win over the Packers, with Justin Jefferson weaponised by the former Rams assistant's complex attack.
Even though he was kept in check by Philadelphia, Jefferson's 8.5 burn yards per target are the fifth-most among receivers with at least 10 targets in the first two games.
The offensive line remains a problem, but the early signs are that the Vikings' defensive front will be one that tilts games in their favour, having already registered six sacks for negative yardage.
Cousins is delivering the ball accurately, posting a well-thrown rate of 86.5 per cent and, though there are questions about his ability to perform under the brightest spotlight, a schedule that features 10 games against 2021 non-playoff teams could give the Vikings the edge of their division rivals in the fight to get to the NFL's postseason pressure cooker.
Green Bay Packers
Record: 1-1
Power ranking: 9
The Packers got the poor start out of the way in a Week 1 loss in Minnesota that left Aaron Rodgers visibly exasperated. Normal service was resumed, however, in the routine Week 2 win over the Bears.
Green Bay's problem is that the Packers have a roster in which several holes can be picked. The offensive line has struggled amid left tackle David Bakhtiari's prolonged absence, while the Packers' hopes of fixing their continually porous run defense have not come to pass as yet. They have surrendered 5.56 yards per play on the ground, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Rodgers has yet to build a rapport with a young receiver corps as the Packers look to put the Davante Adams saga and eventual trade to the Las Vegas Raiders behind them. Though the lack of a connection may be more down to a paucity of faith in his inexperienced wideouts' ability to catch the ball, rather than any worries about their success in creating separation.
Second-round pick Christian Watson has recorded an impressive 14.4 burn yards per target on the small sample size of seven targets. With Rodgers delivering a well-thrown ball on 89.3 per cent of his attempts, it might not be too long before Watson becomes a more integral part of the passing game, though the diversity the Packers gain through having running backs Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon on the field at the same time can keep the offense performing efficiently regardless of how the wideouts progress.
Jones, unquestionably one of the most complete backs in the NFL, has produced a big play on three of his eight targets this season, with defenses forced to respect both the run and the pass when he and Dillon line up in two-running back personnel groupings.
The Packers' secondary, despite being shredded by Jefferson in Week 1, is in the top 12 in open percentage allowed while the strength of their defensive line has Green Bay in the top 12 in pass rush win percentage.
Both the front and the back of the Green Bay defense have the talent to rise much higher on those lists and, if such strides are accompanied by Rodgers developing an understanding with his new weapons, the Packers will likely soon have a compelling case for being the conference's elite.
"Anticipation has the habit to set you up for disappointment."
That refrain from The Arctic Monkeys song 'The View From The Afternoon' applies perfectly to the world of fantasy football, where high expectations are often not reflected by the end result.
While it is too early in the NFL season to be writing off teams and players who have not lived up to their hype as yet, there will already be fantasy owners getting impatient with certain players they drafted to help their team to glory.
Fans of the Las Vegas Raiders will certainly be irritated by their winless start while two offensive stars in the NFC West have yet to deliver much for differing reasons.
Keep that theme and that division in mind as Stats Perform dives into this week's edition of fantasy picks.
Quarterback: Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders @ Tennessee Titans
Is it time to panic in Vegas after an 0-2 start? It certainly will be if the Raiders do not get it done against the also winless Titans.
Recent evidence quite clearly points to the Raiders' quarterback putting Las Vegas in a position to finally get up and running against a Tennessee defense that was shredded by the Buffalo Bills in Week 2.
The Titans are giving up seven yards per pass play, the seventh-most in the NFL, while the six passing touchdowns they have conceded are the third most.
Las Vegas' offense may not be on the same level as that of Buffalo, but the Raiders should have more than enough to consistently take advantage of a Titans defense that has been hit by injuries and reward fantasy players willing to give Carr a shot.
Running Back: Miles Sanders, Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders
The Eagles' offense is built around quarterback Jalen Hurts, with his ability to thrive running the ball a critical component of their early success this year.
But Sanders' 20 touches in the win over the Minnesota Vikings illustrated that he too is a key part of the attack.
Through two weeks, he is averaging 88 yards per game on the ground and this week gets to face a Commanders defense allowing 7.48 yards per rush, the highest average in the NFL.
Sanders should, therefore, be a high-floor fantasy play at running back this week, though Hurts' involvement in the ground game somewhat limits his ceiling.
Wide Receiver: Allen Robinson, Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
The highly anticipated return to form for Robinson following his move to Los Angeles has yet to come to fruition, though he did find the endzone last week against the Atlanta Falcons.
In Week 3, he has a clear opportunity to build on that showing against a Cardinals team whose failures should not be masked by their incredible comeback win over the Raiders.
The Cardinals have allowed 7.65 yards per pass play in the first two games and seven passing touchdowns, the most in the NFL.
In other words, the Rams should have little problem moving the ball on Arizona, putting Robinson in position to have a big day as a mismatch in the red zone.
Tight End: George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers @ Denver Broncos
The Niners should get Kittle back from a groin injury this week, and the fact the Jimmy Garoppolo has had to step in for the injured Trey Lance is unlikely to have any negative impact on his production.
Kittle's chemistry with Garoppolo is well-established and, though theoretically he has a tough matchup against a stingy Broncos defense, there is room for optimism he will immediately hit the ground running in his season debut.
That optimism stems from the Broncos' performance against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1, when Denver allowed eight catches for 102 yards and a touchdown to tight ends, an average of 12.75 yards per reception.
If Kittle is allowed to do similar damage, then arguably the best yards after catch threat at his position could make it a long night for Denver and a great one for fantasy players with him on their roster.
Defense/Special Teams: Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
OK. Listing the 0-2 Panthers here might elicit a double take, but there's logic behind this pick, believe it or not.
The Panthers may be heading to a complete teardown come the end of the year, but the defense is not the reason behind their struggles.
They have given up just 4.31 yards per play, the fourth-best average in the NFL, and just three offensive touchdowns.
Yes, the Saints are the better team, but they are also starting a quarterback in Jameis Winston who has four fractures in his back.
A low-scoring struggle is the most likely outcome in this NFC South matchup and, for that reason, the Panthers are a defense worthy of streaming for fantasy players in a bind at that spot.
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
