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Teenager Musetti stuns Wawrinka in Rome

By Sports Desk September 15, 2020

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  • Nadal stunned at Madrid Open by inspired Zverev Nadal stunned at Madrid Open by inspired Zverev

    Alexander Zverev recorded the biggest win on clay of his career as he stunned Rafael Nadal in the quarter-finals of the Madrid Open.

    Nadal, a five-time champion at this event, was a break up in the first set of his 15th quarter-final at Caja Magica but lost 6-4 6-4 in an hour and 44 minutes.

    Zverev had won the previous two meetings with Nadal, both on indoor hard courts, after losing five consecutive matches against the 20-time major champion including a 6-1 6-1 rout in Monte Carlo in their first clay contest four years ago.

    The world number six has five clay-court titles to his name, including this event in 2018, but defeating 13-time French Open champion Nadal on his favourite surface in front of a home crowd ranks among Zverev's finest achievements.

    It looked as though Nadal was assuming control when he broke to love to lead 4-2 in the first set, but Zverev responded with a break back at the first time of asking.

    The German had spoken of the Madrid courts playing faster than other clay events and the conditions certainly seemed to suit his fearless approach as Nadal struggled to deal with his crosscourt backhand.

    He won the next three games to clinch a first set in which he lost just four of 16 points behind his first serve.

    While Zverev looked increasingly confident, mixing up his shot depth and frequently coming to the net, Nadal cut an unusually frustrated figure even as he showed customary battling qualities to ward off a break point at 1-1.

    However, more powerful hitting from Zverev saw him break to lead 4-2, and although he missed two chances for a double break, he closed out the match with minimal fuss.

    "Definitely one of the biggest wins of my career," Zverev, who will face Dominic Thiem in the semi-finals, told Amazon Prime Sport. "Beating Rafa on clay is one of the toughest things to do in our sport."

  • LaLiga title race predictor: Opta AI predicts winner of Spain's four-way title tussle LaLiga title race predictor: Opta AI predicts winner of Spain's four-way title tussle

    Four rounds remaining, four teams involved, and just six points to separate them.

    The end of the LaLiga title race looks to be the most gripping to any of the top five European leagues this term, and almost certainly the least predictable finish in Spain since 2006-07.

    Back then, there were three teams in with a chance of taking home the title on the final day of the season: Real Madrid and Barcelona, of course, plus Juande Ramos' Sevilla.

    As it was, Madrid and Barca won on the last day whereas Sevilla – who needed a win and for the other two to lose – lost at home to Villarreal.

    Madrid finished top by virtue of a better head-to-head record over Barca, who were essentially denied the title by their local rivals Espanyol, slumping to a 2-2 draw with them on the penultimate day to hand Los Blancos the initiative.

    For the first time since then, Sevilla are again in with a shout of upsetting established order – albeit they trail the leaders by six points – though on this occasion Atletico Madrid are most prominently in the mix.

    Diego Simeone's side looked certainties for the title not too long ago: at the start of February, they were 11 points clear, but they've won only seven of their 15 league games since, including a defeat to Sevilla in early April.

    Yet, remarkably, it's still in Atletico's hands thanks to Barca's surprise loss at home to Granada last week.

     

    What made that defeat even more incredible was the fact Granada had just 18 per cent of the ball and scored twice from an xG (expected goals) value of just 0.69. This means they netted more than two times as many as they should have, which speaks to how stunningly clinical they were.

    Interestingly – or, infuriatingly, if you're a fan – it was Barcelona's second-highest share of the ball in a league game this season, behind only 82.1 per cent against Cadiz. They lost both games.

    It's all shaping up for potentially decisive blows to be struck across May 8 and 9, when the top four all play each other – Barca host Atletico on Saturday, with Sevilla going to Madrid the next day.

    But what does our prediction model say about the most likely outcome in the title race?

    How does the predictor work?

    The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.

    The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.

    The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.

    Let's say how the model now predicts the final league table will look...

     

    Atletico take the crown

    Atletico Madrid are now given a 40.6 per cent probability of winning the title, up from 38 per cent a week ago.

    It essentially looks like it will come down to their showdown with Barca. Atletico hold a slight advantage, having beaten the Catalans 1-0 in Madrid in the reverse fixture, and our predictor seemingly doesn't expect Ronald Koeman's men to overturn that at Camp Nou, as the model sees Atletico winning the title by virtue of their head-to-head record.

    Barcelona's chances have increased from 32.6 per cent to 35.1, with that surprise defeat to Granada preventing any bigger jump despite their 3-2 win at Valencia.

    After drawing 0-0 twice in three games, Madrid's chances dropped from 34.4 per cent to 26.6 per cent last week, and they now sit at 24.3 per cent despite their most recent 2-0 win over Osasuna.

    Sevilla, who conceded an injury-time winner to Athletic Bilbao last time out, remain distant outsiders. Our prediction model only gives them a 0.1 per cent probability of winning their first league title since 1946.

  • Messi will see out career at Barca thanks to Laporta, says Zambrotta Messi will see out career at Barca thanks to Laporta, says Zambrotta

    Lionel Messi will remain at Barcelona until the end of his career after president Joan Laporta's efforts in revitalising the club.

    That is the view of former Barca full-back Gianluca Zambrotta, who believes the Messi transfer saga will be laid to rest once and for all.

    It had looked likely Messi would leave, probably for Manchester City, at the start of this campaign but a dispute over the terms of his contract at Camp Nou proved a stumbling block too far.

    The Argentina star has since helped Ronald Koeman's side win the Copa del Rey and they remain in the battle for LaLiga, sitting two points behind leaders Atletico Madrid, who they face on Saturday. 

    And Zambrotta, who played for the club between 2006 and 2008, feels Barca now represent a more attractive proposition for Messi since Laporta's election as president for a second time in March.

    "They won already an important title in Spain and this is already something," the former Italy international told Stats Perform.

    "They are in contention for La Liga title. On Saturday there will be the game versus Atletico Madrid, they are just two points down with Real Madrid, so Barcelona are a team that's still up there regardless of any problem.

    "They have the chance to win La Liga too, although it will be a fight until the end.

    "I see Barcelona as an improved team in recent months. Laporta has brought enthusiasm and made the place a bit more serene with the aim of keeping their most important player, Messi."

    Asked if Barca will achieve that aim, he replied: "I guess so, Messi will never leave Barcelona unless in a distant future he will like to go back to Argentina, but I doubt it.

    "I think he will stay at Barcelona until the end of his career."

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