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EPL

Arsenal v Leeds United: Preview and prediction

March 31, 2023

Arsenal can see the finish line in the Premier League title race after returning from the international break, but Mikel Arteta just wants his players to enjoy it.

The Gunners are in pole position to end a 19-year wait for the championship, eight points clear of Manchester City – albeit having played a game more.

Arteta's men were also in top form before the season was paused a fortnight ago, and they will be expecting another win at home to Leeds United.

By then, City will have played Liverpool, who could tilt the odds further in Arsenal's favour.

But Arteta is trying to avoid worrying about matters elsewhere, explaining this week: "We cannot control the outcome of other clubs.

"All we can control is what we do every single day, how we behave, how we train, how we communicate, how we control our energy, and the messages we send to our people.

"Now, it has to be about enjoying the last part of the season, with enthusiasm, energy and a real hunger to continue to do what we've done and, if possible, better.

"I think we have really good people, and we have really good players. They are curious all the time to improve, learn and be better. It is a joy to work with this group.

"They really follow us and want to please everybody, and they love what they do, love living with each other and playing for each other. I think you can sense that."

Leeds were beaten 1-0 in the reverse fixture at Elland Road, a near-miss that new boss Javi Gracia has no interest in reflecting on.

"We are looking for the next game and focused on the next game," he said.

"For sure we are playing against the team at the top of the table and it will be very demanding for us.

"But to have one option to get a good result, the first step is to believe that you can do it. The team believe that we can do it."

PLAYERS TO WATCH

Arsenal – Bukayo Saka

Saka was one of the undoubted stars of the international break, with a sublime goal and equally brilliant assist for Harry Kane in England's 2-0 win over Ukraine. That sort of display was in keeping with what the Arsenal winger has produced in the Premier League this season, with no other player in the division joining him in reaching double-figures for both goals (12) and assists (10). Only Erling Haaland (33) and Kane (23) have more goal involvements.

Leeds United – Jack Harrison

Harrison has suddenly rediscovered his scoring touch, netting in back-to-back games after just two goals in his previous 29 Premier League appearances. But that is not to say he had not been delivering for Leeds in other ways as the winger leads the way for both assists (six) and chances created (41) among his team-mates.

MATCH PREDICTION – ARSENAL WIN

Arsenal have not lost to Leeds in all competitions since a 3-2 defeat in May 2003 ended their title bid. It will take more than that to stop the Gunners this time, though, and a repeat appears pretty unlikely at Emirates Stadium.

Leeds have won only two of their 23 meetings with Premier League leaders, including losing each of their four such games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 14-2.

Meanwhile, Arteta's men are on a six-match winning run in the league, their joint-best under this manager. Arsenal last won seven in a row with Unai Emery at the helm between August and October 2018.

OPTA WIN PROBABILITY

Arsenal - 61.4 per cent

Leeds United - 15.7 per cent

Draw - 22.9 per cent

EPL

Saliba ruled out of Leeds match but Arteta hopeful on Partey fitness

March 31, 2023

William Saliba has been ruled out of Arsenal's Premier League meeting with Leeds United with a back injury, but Mikel Arteta is hopeful of having Thomas Partey available.

France international Saliba limped off during Arsenal's Europa League clash with Sporting CP on March 16 and sat out the 4-1 league win over Crystal Palace three days later.

The 22-year-old, who has started 32 of Arsenal's 39 games this season, subsequently pulled out of France's squad for their Euro 2024 qualifiers during the international break.

Arteta had been hopeful Saliba would be available in time for the Gunners' return to action on Saturday, but the centre-back is still not ready.

"He is progressing but still has some discomfort in his back," Arteta said at Friday's pre-match press conference. "He's not going to be fit for this game.

"We're doing everything to get him back feeling better, but he is not ready yet."

There have been suggestions Arsenal could be without Saliba for the majority of their remaining 10 league games, but Arteta does not see that being the case.

"We're very hopeful [he will return soon] and he is as well," Arteta said. "Back injuries are tricky in terms of how they evolve with the load that you put in certain areas.

"Let’s push it and see how he copes with that. He's so willing to be back in the team. We're very positive and pushing it every day, seeing how the pain develops."

Takehiro Tomiyasu also limped off in the Sporting match, which saw Arsenal eliminated from the Europa League, and has since been ruled out for the campaign.

Arsenal had another injury scare in the week, meanwhile, as influential midfielder Partey did not play in Ghana's 1-1 draw with Angola for precautionary reasons.

But the 29-year-old is likely to feature against 14th-place Leeds at Emirates Stadium as Arsenal look to maintain – or indeed extend – their eight-point lead at the summit.

"We're positive about him. Hopefully he'll be back," Arteta said.

Arteta confirmed he otherwise has a fully-fit squad to choose from, with striker Gabriel Jesus now nearing full fitness after recently returning from a long-term lay-off.

"He's close to 100 per cent," Arteta said. "He's taken a big step forward in recent days, creating chaos in training. He's in a really good place."

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 13 meetings with Leeds in all competitions, winning 11 of those, since a 3-2 loss in May 2003 that ended the Gunners' title bid that season.

The Gunners have won six league games in a row ahead of hosting Leeds to keep Manchester City, who they still have to face away from home, at arm's length.

EPL

Arteta wins fourth Premier League manager of the month award of the season

March 31, 2023

Mikel Arteta has been named the Premier League manager of the month for the fourth time this season after an unbeaten March.

The Arsenal boss collects the award as the Premier League leaders celebrated a perfect month that saw them extend their lead at the top of the table to eight points over Manchester City, while Bukayo Saka's involvement in that run has seen him win the player of the month trophy.

The Gunners scored 14 goals and conceded just three in their four league games in March, with victories over Everton, Bournemouth, Fulham and Crystal Palace.

Having won 4-0 against Everton, Arsenal then salvaged a dramatic 3-2 victory against relegation-threatened Bournemouth courtesy of Reiss Nelson's injury-time winner.

A rampant first-half display saw them beat Fulham 3-0 before another convincing 4-1 victory against Crystal Palace prior to the international break.

The award also marks a clean sweep for the north London side, with Saka taking home the player of the month award after his three goals and two assists in March.

Arteta fought off competition for this month's award from Brighton and Hove Albion's Roberto De Zerbi, Aston Villa's Unai Emery and City's Pep Guardiola.

The award is Arteta's fourth of the season having also won it in August, November and January.

The Spaniard is now just one off the record of five awards set by Liverpool's Jurgen Klopp in the 2019-20 season.

EPL

Arsenal's Saka lands first Premier League Player of the Month award

March 31, 2023

Bukayo Saka has been named the Premier League's Player of the Month for the first time, scooping the prize after helping leaders Arsenal win all four of their games in the competition in March.

Saka hit three goals and added two assists in four appearances during the month as Arsenal posted wins over Everton, Bournemouth, Fulham and Crystal Palace.

Only Manchester City's Erling Haaland (33) and Tottenham's Harry Kane (23) have been involved in more Premier League goals than Saka this season (22).

The 21-year-old – considered a candidate to be named player of the season – is the only player to reach double figures for both goals (12) and assists (10) in the competition this term.

Having helped Arsenal establish an eight-point lead over City as the Gunners chase their first league title since 2004, Saka also scored with a stunning long-range strike as England beat Ukraine 2-0 in the international break.

Saka saw off competition from Alexander Isak, Alexis Mac Allister, Tyrone Mings, Mohamed Salah and Arsenal team-mate Leandro Trossard to win the Premier League award.

He becomes the second Arsenal star to land the monthly prize this campaign, after Martin Odegaard was named the best player across November and December either side of the World Cup break.

EPL

Premier League Fantasy Picks: Saka to strike against Leeds, Ings to haunt Southampton

March 31, 2023

After an unwelcome international break the view of many, Premier League football returns this weekend with plenty to decide at both ends of the table.

A gruelling clash between title-chasing Manchester City and top-four hopefuls Liverpool kicks things off on Saturday, with league leaders Arsenal hosting Leeds United later in the day and potentially having the opportunity to extend their lead at the summit.

Bukayo Saka is once again one to watch at Emirates Stadium, having maintained his fine form over the international break on England duty, and it would be wise to draft him into your fantasy squad if he is not yet in the side.

Elsewhere, Kai Havertz's resurgence is one to keep an eye on, while Danny Ings and Jack Harrison are also worth a punt.

Using Opta data, we've highlighted exactly why that quartet should be on your hit list.

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal v Leeds United)

The Hale End graduate is the only player in the Premier League to have hit double figures for both goals (12) and assists (10) this season, with Saka in particularly devastating form at Emirates Stadium.

Overall, 14 of his 22 goal involvements have come in north London, standing behind only Erling Haaland (23) for the most direct goal involvements at home in the Premier League.

Last time out against Crystal Palace, Saka scored twice and contributed an assist to help Arsenal maintain their title charge, then carrying that form into England duty and scoring against Ukraine at Wembley.

Kai Havertz (Chelsea v Aston Villa)

Linked with a move to Bayern Munich at the end of the season following Thomas Tuchel's appointment in Bavaria, Havertz has hit a fine vein of form at a crucial stage of the season in Chelsea's top-four bid.

Seven goals this season puts Havertz just one shy of his tally from last season, while he enters the clash against Aston Villa having scored in each of his last two Premier League appearances – meaning he could score in three consecutive games for the first time since March 2022.

No player has been involved in more goals under Graham Potter than Havertz (six goals, one assist), scoring twice the amount as Chelsea's next leading scorer under the Englishman (Mason Mount, three).

Danny Ings (West Ham v Southampton)

Ings has established a fine record of haunting his former employers in the Premier League, having been directly involved in 10 goals in his last 14 such matches (seven goals, three assists).

That includes involvement in three goals in his last two appearances against Southampton (one goal, two assists), who may wonder what might have been had he been in their ranks in the fight for Premier League survival.

Since January 21, no West Ham player has a higher goals-per-game ratio (0.55) or expected goals (0.56) return, while only Jarrod Bowen (6.43) and Said Benrahma (5.29) have more touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes than Ings (4.66).

Jack Harrison (Arsenal v Leeds United)

With six assists over the course of the season, Harrison ranks sixth across the entirety of the Premier League in that regard, with only Christian Eriksen (seven), Mohamed Salah (seven), Leandro Trossard (eight), Saka (10) and Kevin De Bruyne (12) having more.

In Leeds' bid for survival, Harrison has been the catalyst in pushing the club away from the bottom three and travels to Emirates Stadium having scored in consecutive Premier League matches.

Only Rodrigo (12) has been involved in more Leeds goals this term than Harrison (nine), while nobody has created more chances for the Yorkshire side than the midfielder (41).

EPL

Premier League predictions: Man City big favourites against Liverpool, Arsenal to maintain title charge

March 31, 2023

Premier League leaders Arsenal went into the international break with an eight-point advantage, and the Gunners will be hoping for a favour from Liverpool on Saturday.

Before Arsenal host strugglers Leeds United, Liverpool travel to the Etihad Stadium to face second-placed Manchester City.

Pep Guardiola's side have a game in hand on Arsenal, but surely they must beat the Reds to give themselves a realistic chance of retaining the title.

Elsewhere, there are more huge fixtures at the bottom of the table, including West Ham v Southampton, while Newcastle United and Manchester United play in a repeat of February's EFL Cup final.

Manchester City v Liverpool

Liverpool, who won the reverse league fixture 1-0, are looking to complete the league double over City for what would be just a second time in the last 17 seasons, previously doing so in Jurgen Klopp's debut campaign in 2015-16.

Mohamed Salah has scored in all three of Liverpool's games against Man City this season, in the Premier League, Community Shield and EFL Cup. The last Liverpool player to score in four different games against an opponent in a single campaign was Ian Rush, netting in five meetings with Everton in 1986-87.

Erling Haaland has scored 42 goals in all competitions for City this season, including six hat-tricks (all at the Etihad). Only two players have scored more in a single campaign for a Premier League club (since 1992-93) – Ruud van Nistelrooy in 2002-03 and Salah in 2017-18 (both 44).

Best bet – City to avoid defeat: City have lost just one of their last 13 Premier League home games against Liverpool (W7 D5), going down 4-1 in November 2015 under Manuel Pellegrini. Guardiola's team have won their last three top-flight games, but have yet to win four in a row this season.

Long shot – Liverpool to win: Liverpool have won more Premier League games against reigning champions than any other side (23). They are aiming to achieve their first such double since 2013-14, beating Manchester United 1-0 at home and 3-0 away. However, they have taken just 12 points from their 13 Premier League away games this season (W3 D3 L7), compared to 30 at home.

Opta prediction: Despite the fierce rivalry over recent years, City are the big favourites for this game, with Opta's supercomputer ranking their chances of victory at 50.9 per cent. The draw is at 26.4 per cent, with Liverpool handed a 22.7 per cent chance of success.

Arsenal v Leeds United

Leeds have won just two of their 23 Premier League games against the league leaders (D9 L12), though both victories came away from home (v Middlesbrough in August 2000 and Man City in April 2021). They have lost all four such games against Arsenal by an aggregate score of 14-2.

Arsenal have won their last six Premier League games, their joint-longest such run under Mikel Arteta. They last won seven in a row between August and October 2018 under Unai Emery.

Arsenal’s top scorer in the Premier League this season is Gabriel Martinelli with 13 goals. The last player to score more while aged 21 or under in a single campaign in the division was Dele Alli in 2016-17 (18).

Best bet – Bukayo Saka to score or assist: Only Erling Haaland (33) and Harry Kane (23) have been involved in more Premier League goals than Saka this season (22), with the winger the only player so far to reach double figures for both goals (12) and assists (10).

Long shot – Leeds to keep a clean sheet: Since a 0-0 draw in their first Premier League away game against Arsenal in February 1993, Leeds have not drawn or kept a clean sheet in any of their subsequent 13 league visits to the Gunners (W3 L10), shipping 31 goals in total.

Opta prediction: Opta do not give Leeds much chance at Emirates Stadium (15.5 per cent). Arsenal are huge favourites, with a 61.6 per cent win probability, while the draw is ranked at 22.9 per cent.

West Ham v Southampton

Coming into this weekend's games, Southampton have picked up the highest share of their Premier League points this season away from home (57 per cent - 13/23). Meanwhile, only Nottingham Forest (77 per cent) have a higher share of points won at home in 2022-23 than West Ham (75 per cent - 18/24).

Southampton have picked up as many points in their six Premier League games under Ruben Selles (8 – W2 D2 L2) as they had in their 17 league matches beforehand (W2 D2 L13).

Sides starting the day bottom of the Premier League have won 11 league matches this season, four more than the whole of last term (seven), and the most in a single campaign in the competition since 2017-18 (12). Southampton have been responsible for three of those victories by bottom-placed sides in 2022-23, a joint-high (also Leicester).

Best bet – James Ward-Prowse to create two chances: Coming into this weekend's games, only Kieran Trippier (49) has created more chances from set plays than Ward-Prowse (35) in the Premier League this season, while the Southampton captain is the only player to create 25+ chances from both open play (27) and set pieces (35) in the division this term.

Long shot – A goalless draw: No other sides have kept fewer clean sheets in the Premier League this season than Southampton (four) and West Ham (five)

Opta prediction: Despite both of these teams struggling, it is West Ham who Opta give 51.4 per cent chance of claiming all the points. Southampton have been responsible for three of the seven victories by the bottom-placed side this season, but the likelihood of them succeeding this time stands at 21.7 per cent.

Newcastle United v Manchester United

Following their goalless draw at Old Trafford in the reverse fixture, Newcastle are looking to keep a clean sheet in consecutive Premier League games against United for the first time since May 1997.

No player has scored more winning goals in the Premier League this season than Marcus Rashford, with nine of his 14 strikes being the winner. Only two United players have ever scored more winning goals in a single campaign in the competition – Cristiano Ronaldo (12 in 2007-08) and Wayne Rooney (10 in 2009-10).

Coming into this weekend's fixtures, only Bournemouth (38), Nottingham Forest (32) and Leicester (30) have conceded more away goals in the Premier League this season than United (27). Indeed, only in four different Premier League campaigns have the Red Devils conceded more on the road – 1999-00 (29), 2001-02 (28), 2018-19 (29) and 2021-22 (35).

Best bet – United to win: United have won more Premier League away games against Newcastle than any other side (14). However, they have lost two of their last five such visits (W2 D1), having lost just one of their previous 13 at St James' Park. Newcastle are winless in six Premier League games against Man Utd (D2 L4), though the last two have both been drawn.

Long shot – Rashford and Alexander Isak to score: Rashford has been involved in seven goals in his eight Premier League starts against Newcastle (four goals, three assists) – only against Arsenal and Leicester City (nine each) has he been involved in more. Isak, meanwhile, has scored six goals in 10 Premier League appearances for Newcastle this season, including three in his last two.

Opta prediction: This could prove a big game in the top-four race, with Newcastle only three points behind third-placed United. The visitors are made very slight favourites (36.8 per cent to 34.2 per cent). The draw is given a 29 per cent chance.

EPL

Which three get your vote? Ferdinand, Toure, Neville, Terry and Fowler among 15 Premier League Hall of Fame nominees

March 30, 2023

Rio Ferdinand was "delighted" to be named among 15 nominees for the Premier League Hall of Fame.

Introduced in 2021, the Hall of Fame has inducted eight players in each of the past two years, adding managerial greats Alex Ferguson and Arsene Wenger on Wednesday.

Voting for the latest round of player inductees has begun, with greats nominated from across the last 30 years of the Premier League.

The 2023 class of inductees is dominated by defenders, including former Arsenal captain Tony Adams, ex-Chelsea skipper John Terry and Manchester United stalwarts Ferdinand and Gary Neville.

Former Chelsea and Arsenal duo Petr Cech and Ashley Cole are also nominated, along with ex-United defender Nemanja Vidic.

Midfielders Michael Carrick and Yaya Toure represent both sides of Manchester, with strikers Andy Cole, Les Ferdinand, Robbie Fowler and Michael Owen completing the list.

Ferdinand wrote on Twitter: "Delighted to be nominated again on the #PLHallOfFame. Few decent CBs [centre-backs] listed on the nominees."

The former England captain will be hoping it is third time lucky, having also been among the nominees in 2021 and 2022.

Fans can vote for three players they believe should be inducted, with voting open until 6pm BST on Monday, April 10.

Only three players will take their place among the greats this time around.

The shortlist has been reduced from 25 names previously to 15 and players are only eligible if their retirement was confirmed before 1 January 2023.

In order to be eligible, players must have made at least 250 Premier League appearances or made 200 league appearances for a single club, been selected in any Team of the Decade or 20-year Anniversary teams, won a Golden Boot or Golden Glove, been voted Player of the Season, won three titles or scored 100 goals or registered 100 clean sheets.

2023 nominees: Tony Adams, Sol Campbell, Michael Carrick, Petr Cech, Andy Cole, Ashley Cole, Jermain Defoe, Les Ferdinand, Rio Ferdinand, Robbie Fowler, Gary Neville, Michael Owen, John Terry, Yaya Toure, Nemanja Vidic.

EPL

Arsenal can only get better amid Premier League title push, believes Morgan

March 30, 2023

Arsenal can improve on their superlative Premier League form, believes Wes Morgan, who also lauded Erling Haaland's Premier League start.

The Gunners lead the title race this season, holding an eight-point lead over defending champions Manchester City.

Mikel Arteta's side have been the team to beat in the English top-flight this term, and could end a near-two-decade wait for the crown if they hold their nerve.

But Morgan, who famously captained Leicester City to the Premier League title in 2016, feels that they may still have a way to go before they hit their ceiling.

"Arsenal, they've been building over the last couple of seasons," he told Stats Perform. "That young squad firing at the top of the league, [it should not be a surprise].

"They will only get better and better from this experience this season. I don't see why they can't continue the good work they've been doing and get even better."

"There's still plenty of points up for grabs. It's down to them to see if they falter. Anything can happen in football, but it's down to Arsenal to lose it."

City have been kept on Arsenal's heels by Leeds-born Norway international Haaland, whose tally of 28 goals this term is edging him closer to the Premier League single-season record of 34.

Morgan feels he has the potential to write more history, adding: "He's incredible. I love watching him, [with] his power, his pace. I'm not sure how I would cope against him.

"He's taken the Premier League by storm. I hope he breaks all the records. He's given himself a high bar for next season, but he's a fantastic player. I'm glad he's in the Premier League for us to watch."

Both teams return to action on Saturday, with Arsenal due to meet relegation battlers Leeds United and City set to face former title rivals Liverpool.

Transfer News

Rumour Has It: Real Madrid plot sensational swoop for Chelsea's Reece James

March 30, 2023

Chelsea have underwhelmed this season and may look to offload players to ensure they meet financial fair play requirements, but could Reece James really leave Stamford Bridge?

The Blues have spent big money over the past 10 months since Todd Boehly took over ownership from Roman Abramovich.

Enzo Fernandez, Wesley Fofana, Mykhailo Mudryk, Marc Cucurella, Raheem Sterling, Benoit Badiashile, Kalidou Koulibaly, Noni Madueke and Malo Gusto were all signed in lucrative moves.

TOP STORY – MADRID CONSIDER SHOCK MOVE FOR CHELSEA'S JAMES

Real Madrid are plotting a shock swoop to sign Chelsea full-back Reece James as the Blues plan a clean-out, claims AS.

James, 23, is contracted with the Blues until 2028, making any deal complicated, but Los Blancos are reportedly hoping Chelsea's need to balance the books can work in their favour.

Madrid previously landed Thibaut Courtois and Eden Hazard from Chelsea, albeit in different circumstances with both only having shorter terms remaining on their contracts.

AS claims Borussia Dortmund midfielder Jude Bellingham remains Real's priority signing.

ROUND-UP

– The Evening Standard claims Arsenal are making West Ham midfielder Declan Rice a transfer priority, amid plenty of interest from Premier League clubs. Rice is expected to leave the Hammers at the end of this season, with Chelsea, Manchester City and Manchester United also reportedly in the hunt.

– Manchester United are keeping an eye on Eintracht Frankfurt's Randal Kolo Muani and Atalanta's Rasmus Hojlund should their advances for Tottenham's Harry Kane fail, claims the Manchester Evening News.

– Fiorentina midfielder Sofyan Amrabat is eager for a move to Barcelona, claims Footmercato. The Blaugrana had interest in the Moroccan during the last transfer window.

– Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain have lodged initial bids for 16-year-old Hajduk Split defender Luka Vuskovic, according to 90min.

– Footmercato reports Khvicha Kvaratskhelia is set to sign a new five-year contract with Napoli, having been linked with PSG recently.

– El Chiringuito claims Manchester City are eyeing a move for ex-Spain boss Luis Enrique amid talk Pep Guardiola could opt for a sabbatical at the end of the season.

Football

Predicting Europe's big five leagues: what Stats Perform's supercomputer says

March 30, 2023

With the last international window of the season over, domestic club campaigns now enter the final straight.

Everything is still to be decided – technically speaking. Title races, European qualification, relegation – all will come to a head over the next two months.

Of course, there are a few outcomes that already look like foregone conclusions, but there's still much to play for in each of the top five leagues.

With club football returning over the next few days, Stats Perform's Artificial Intelligence team have crunched the numbers using their supercomputer to predict the outcome of each league.

How's the outlook for your team?

Premier League

England is the scene of potentially most compelling title race among the top five leagues this season.

Arsenal may have an eight-point lead at the summit, but Manchester City still have a game in hand. As such, the Gunners' chances of winning a first league title since 2004 are 56.2 per cent, perhaps smaller than many might have expected.

That comes down in part to the statistical value attached to City's historic results, particularly over the past few years during their Premier League domination, whereas Arsenal haven't come close to that level of success over the same period.

Therefore, the title race still looks tight.

A little further back, Manchester United (74.5 per cent) are near-certainties to finish third, while the race for fourth promises to be engrossing – Tottenham (19.3 per cent), Newcastle United (29.1 per cent) and Liverpool (24.5 per cent) look set to tussle it out, with Brighton and Hove Albion (10.7 per cent) considered rank outsiders.

At the bottom, Southampton's 41.6 per cent likelihood of finishing 20th suggests they've a huge battle on their hands, but the supercomputer reckons West Ham and Leicester City have enough to pull themselves clear of the drop zone.

The signs are that two of Bournemouth, Everton and Nottingham Forest will join Saints in the Championship.

Bundesliga

Germany's top flight may come to rival the Premier League's title race. Ahead of the weekend's Klassiker between Borussia Dortmund and Bayern Munich, BVB are a point clear.

Yet, Dortmund's probability of finishing top is just 22.4 per cent compared to Bayern's 76.4. Again, it largely comes down to their historic results and Die Roten's dominance suggesting they'll eventually get the job done.

But it's fair to say Bayern's decision makers aren't so confident given their brutal choice to sack Julian Nagelsmann on Friday, replacing him with former Dortmund coach Thomas Tuchel.

Union Berlin aren't out of it given they are only five points behind Dortmund, though this is obviously uncharted territory for them, hence the 0.9 per cent chance of winning their first top-flight title since 1923.

Third looks the best bet for them (40.3 per cent), while RB Leipzig are the most likely to fill out the top four (37.2 per cent).

It's even tighter in the relegation scrap. Only seven points separate 18th from 13th, so even rock-bottom Stuttgart are given a reasonable chance of finishing 14th (10.6 per cent) or 15th (15.2 per cent).

LaLiga

Following Barcelona's dramatic 2-1 win in El Clasico before the international break, LaLiga looks done and dusted at the top with the Blaugrana 12 points clear.

The supercomputer also reckons Atletico Madrid are nearly guaranteed third (80.3 per cent), leaving what is effectively a two-horse race for fourth.

Real Sociedad have fourth at the moment and are 43.7 per cent likely to finish there, though Real Betis (36.7 per cent) aim to push them all the way.

At the other end, Elche are given no more than a 0.1 per cent chance of getting out of the bottom three after taking just 13 points from 26 games.

Otherwise, relegation is difficult to call. Almeria in 19th are only six points behind Real Mallorca in 11th, meaning there are a host of clubs who could yet get dragged into a fight for their lives.

There are two particularly big names among those potentially in trouble. Valencia are in the bottom three and have a 21.9 per cent chance of being relegated, while Sevilla – who are on their third coach of the season after sacking Jorge Sampaoli – are only two points clear of safety.

The computer says Man Utd's next Europa League opponents only have a 5.8 per cent probability of going down, however.

Ligue 1

Paris Saint-Germain seemingly have little to worry about in Ligue 1, with the supercomputer calculating their title chances at 98 per cent.

The tiny hint of doubt gives Marseille (1.8 per cent) and Lens (0.2 per cent) a bit of hope – but even then, it's presumably nothing more than a pipe dream.

There is a similar degree of certainty at the bottom, where four teams will be relegated ahead of the league's size being reduced to 18 clubs next term.

Angers, with 10 points from 28 games, cannot get out of the bottom four according to the calculations, and the other three positions are currently taken up by Ajaccio, Troyes and Auxerre.

Brest and Strasbourg aren't out of the woods yet either, though the supercomputer believes those in the relegation zone are the ones most likely to drop into Ligue 2.

Serie A

If there's one league in Europe that's got a foregone conclusion at the top, it's Serie A.

Napoli have more than a 99.9 per cent chance of winning a first Scudetto since 1990, with the unrelenting Partenopei a whopping 19 points clear of second already.

The race for Champions League qualification promises to be a little more tense.

Eleven points is the gap between Lazio in second and Juventus in seventh. While the Bianconeri are very much outsiders, the other five teams have at least a 15 per cent chance of finishing in the top four.

Lazio, Inter and Milan appear to be the most likely to take those spots, though Roma and Atalanta will fancy their chances of putting a cat among the pigeons.

In the relegation fight, there's a rather clearer picture.

Cremonese and Sampdoria look doomed, while Hellas Verona in 18th are five points adrift of safety, giving them just an 18.8 per cent probability of avoiding relegation.

EPL

Arsenal and Aston Villa technical staff charged by FA after altercation

March 29, 2023

Members of Arsenal and Aston Villa's technical teams have been charged by the Football Association over an altercation during their Premier League game last month.

The Gunners staged a remarkable 4-2 comeback at Villa Park on February 18, sealed by a dramatic own goal courtesy of their former goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez.

It came after earlier goals from Bukayo Saka and Oleksandr Zinchenko had helped the visitors draw on level terms, while Gabriel Martinelli added a fourth deep in injury time.

Celebrations were marred between a clash between Villa’s head of performance analysis Victor Manas and Arsenal's technical analyst Miguel Molina, and now the pair have been charged by the FA.

"Aston Villa's head of performance analysis, Victor Manas, and Arsenal's technical analyst coach, Miguel Molina, have been charged following their Premier League game on Wednesday 18 February," read a statement.

"It's alleged that Miguel Molina's behaviour and/or language during the 94th minute was improper and/or abusive and/or insulting, and that his behaviour in the tunnel after the final whistle was also improper."

Manas and Molina have until Friday to provide a response to the FA.

EPL

Wenger named Premier League's most influential manager by Arteta

March 29, 2023

Mikel Arteta labelled Arsene Wenger as the most influential manager in Premier League history, after the former Arsenal boss was inducted into the competition's Hall of Fame.

On Wednesday, Wenger was inducted alongside Alex Ferguson, with the pair becoming the first managers to go into the Hall of Fame after 16 players had already been added.

Wenger won three Premier League titles – including with the 2003-04 'Invincibles' – and seven FA Cups during his long stint in charge of Arsenal.

He is renowned for introducing a revolutionary football philosophy, which included a commitment to attacking football.

"I don't think any other managers have had a more impact," Arteta said.

"Some managers have brought different ideas, different characters, different competitions.

"He opened the Premier League to the world in a different way to other managers. He had a vision that was much wider than any other manager had at the time.

"England and the Premier League have to be very grateful forever to this man."

Arteta played under Wenger for five seasons between 2011 and 2016, before becoming Arsenal boss himself in 2019.

After winning the 2020 FA Cup, Arteta has the Gunners leading the Premier League by eight points with 10 games to go.

On track for Arsenal’s first title in 19 years, Arteta has credited Wenger for helping him as a player and then in the next step of his career.

"I had a dream to play for this club and that was because of the way Arsenal played," added Arteta.

"It was so attractive. I had a phenomenal time with him. He pushed me as well at the end of my career to become a coach.

"We had a conversation and I asked him what he would do in my position because I had doubts in my career over whether I wanted to continue my journey as a coach.

"He helped me at the club and at the academy to do my badges and again, he was an inspiration."

EPL

Wenger: Arteta names ex-Arsenal boss as Premier League's most influential manager