Top five European leagues permutations: Title races, Champions League spots and relegation battles

By Sports Desk May 17, 2021

Europe's top five leagues all conclude this week and there are still plenty of matters to be resolved – not least who will be crowned champions in Spain and France.

Every division has something riding on the final days of the season, whether it be top spot, European qualification, or relegation.

Ahead of what is set to be a dramatic conclusion to the Premier League, LaLiga, Ligue 1, Serie A and the Bundesliga campaigns, we look at the state of play in each league.

 

PREMIER LEAGUE

Manchester City wrapped up the Premier League title with three games to spare, making them the first team in the competition's history to win the title despite being as low as eighth on Christmas Day.

All three relegation places were also decided with three games remaining – a Premier League record – with Fulham joining Sheffield United and West Brom in dropping down a division.

That leaves just the European spots to fight for, and it is shaping up to be an entertaining end to the English top-flight season in that regard. Manchester United are guaranteed a top-four finish, but five other teams – Leicester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, Tottenham and West Ham – are in the mix for the two other Champions League berths with two rounds of games to go.

There is also the small matter of the Europa League places for the teams finishing in fifth and sixth, as well as a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League, which goes to the team in seventh, meaning everyone from 10th-placed Leeds United to Leicester in third have something to play for. That includes Arsenal, who have not missed out on European football of some sort in 25 years.

LALIGA 

The Spanish title race appeared to take a dramatic twist on Sunday as Real Madrid leapfrogged Atletico Madrid at the summit for around 20 minutes. However, Atleti scored two late goals to beat Osasuna, meaning they are two points ahead of their city rivals heading into the final round of games.

Atleti, who have led the way at the top for 29 matchdays, now need to match Madrid's result against Villarreal when they travel to relegation-threatened Real Valladolid on the final day of the season. It is worth noting that Los Blancos have the superior head-to-head record, so a draw would not be enough for Atleti if Madrid win.

Barcelona are officially out of the title race, meanwhile, but they are assured of a top-four finish along with Sevilla. Real Sociedad and Real Betis occupy the Europa League spots, while Villarreal are in a Europa Conference League berth, though just one point separates the three teams so that could all yet change.

To complicate matters, Villarreal could still qualify for the Champions League by winning the Europa League final against Manchester United.

At the bottom end of the division, Eibar are already relegated and they will be joined by two of Valladolid, Elche or Huesca. Valladolid must beat Atletico in their final game to have a chance of staying up, while the onus is on Elche to better Huesca's result as they are level on points but have an inferior head-to-head record.

LIGUE 1

The Ligue 1 title battle is also going right down to the wire in a three-way dogfight. After a thrilling race that has lasted the course of the season, underdogs Lille lead heavyweights Paris Saint-Germain by one point with one matchday left.

Monaco have won seven of their previous eight games and are three points off leaders Lille, though they require both Les Dogues and PSG to slip up on the final day, as well as beating Lens. Should it come down to goal difference, PSG hold a big lead over their two title rivals.

Incredibly, PSG are still not yet technically assured of a Champions League place as Lyon in fourth are only three points worse off, although it would take a defeat for the reigning champions and victory for Lyon, plus a goal swing of 16, for them to miss out.

Monaco's opponents Lens, incidentally, also have plenty to play for at the weekend as they are sixth – enough for Europa Conference League qualification – but can still be caught by Rennes in seventh, while they could yet overtake Marseille in fifth if results go their way.

At the opposite end of the table, there may only be one spot left to be settled in the bottom three – Dijon and Nimes are both already down – but six teams are still very much in danger of the drop. Nantes occupy the relegation play-off spot, with Lorient, Brest and Strasbourg just a point better off, and Bordeaux and Reims only two points clear.

SERIE A

With Inter being crowned Scudetto winners for the first time in 11 years at the start of the month, the biggest storyline in Serie A regards Juventus' top-four fate. The dethroned champions, who had finished top nine years running before this season, are currently down in fifth.

Juve are one point behind Napoli and Milan in the two spots directly above them, while Atalanta are three points better off in second and have the better head-to-head record against the Bianconeri.

Andrea Pirlo's side are therefore in need of favours on the final day in what is poised to be a nail-biting finale in terms of those Champions League places. Lazio will finish sixth, so they are assured of Europa League football next term, while Roma hold a two-point advantage over Sassuolo in the Europa Conference League position.

Parma and Crotone are both down already and one of Benevento or Torino will join them, the latter currently three points outside of the relegation zone and with a game in hand to play on Benevento.

BUNDESLIGA

RB Leipzig provided Bayern Munich with some stern competition for a while, but the Bavarian giants' quality eventually told and they are Bundesliga champions for a ninth year running.

It's not only the title race that's done and dusted in Germany, in fact, as RB Leipzig are certain of second place, and both Borussia Dortmund and Wolfsburg will join them in the Champions League next season.

Eintracht Frankfurt and Bayer Leverkusen, meanwhile, will finish in fifth and sixth respectively regardless of events later this week.

However, Union Berlin have work to do if they are to finish seventh for a place in the Europa Conference League play-offs as Borussia Monchengladbach are a point further back, while Stuttgart and Freiburg are two behind with a game to go.

Seven-time German champions Schalke will be competing in the second tier of German football next season, but Cologne and Werder Bremen are hanging on in there, sitting two and one point behind Arminia Bielefeld respectively in 15th place.

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    Liverpool suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat to Merseyside rivals Everton on Wednesday, a result which meant they failed to close the gap to Arsenal after the Gunners thrashed Chelsea 5-0 on Tuesday.

    While Jurgen Klopp's men couldn't respond to the Gunners pulling clear, City did on Thursday, with Phil Foden scoring twice in an emphatic 4-0 win over Brighton at the Amex Stadium.

    One point behind Arsenal with a game in hand, City know five wins from their five remaining matches will seal an unprecedented fourth successive English top-flight title.

    However, Guardiola expects further twists and turns in the coming weeks.

    Asked if Liverpool were still in contention after City's win, Guardiola told Sky Sports: "Yeah. Many things can happen. 

    "What happened with Liverpool, losing to Crystal Palace and Everton, can happen to us. It can happen to Arsenal. No-one is safe. We have to rest. Now it is just about recovering for the next one.

    "We have been here in the past but being here in the past doesn't mean it is going to happen. We have to do the things to make it happen."

    City's comprehensive win – in which Kevin De Bruyne scored his first headed goal in the Premier League – saw them cut Arsenal's goal difference advantage to eight goals.

    However, Guardiola believes it will be tough for City to close that gap, saying: "It is difficult to cut. The margin is so big. They score a lot of goals and don't concede. 

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    "For sure, but he wants to win the Premier League," Guardiola said when asked if Foden deserved individual honours. "His influence in the final third was better than in the last two or three games. Today he was more calm, his decision-making was good and to score goals is always good."

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    Belgium international De Bruyne now has four goals and six assists in just 13 league appearances for City this season.

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    Foden moved onto 16 league goals for the season with a first-half brace at the Amex Stadium, seeing a free-kick deflect past a wrongfooted Jason Steele before stroking home after some reckless play from the Seagulls.

    De Bruyne had earlier given City the lead with what was his 68th Premier League goal but the first with his head, as Pep Guardiola's men made light of Erling Haaland's injury-enforced absence.

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    Brighton, meanwhile, stay in the bottom half with 44 points, having been surpassed by Bournemouth on Wednesday.

    Nathan Ake could not keep his shot down when presented with the first half-chance after a low-key start, but City went ahead with a brilliant goal after 17 minutes.

    Foden slipped Kyle Walker in on the right flank, and De Bruyne watched the full-back's cross all the way before sending a wonderful diving header into the top-right corner.

    There was more fortune about City's second, which arrived just nine minutes later as Foden's free-kick deflected in off Pascal Gross amid Brighton complaints about how Foden won the set-piece.

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    Brighton were enraged when Josko Gvardiol avoided conceding a penalty for a clumsy challenge on Pedro, who skewed wide late on as City – who went close to a fifth through Jeremy Doku late on and face struggling Nottingham Forest next – claimed a statement win.

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    Foden has emerged as the favourite to be crowned Premier League Player of the Season, and he has gone up a gear in the run-in, also scoring a hat-trick on his last league appearance when City thrashed Aston Villa 4-1 earlier this month.

    He was in imperious form again on Thursday, even if Brighton's fans were not happy with the way he went down for the free-kick that ultimately resulted in his first goal.

    That strike was Foden's 50th in the Premier League, making him just the third player to score 50 top-flight goals under Guardiola while aged 23 or younger, after Lionel Messi and Erling Haaland.

    It is no wonder Brighton's fans are sick of the sight of the England man; he has eight goals in his last eight Premier League appearances against the Seagulls, more than he has scored against any other club in the competition.

    Seagulls' wings clipped

    Hampered by injuries to the likes of Pervis Estupinan, Kaoru Mitoma and Evan Ferguson, Brighton have seen their European hopes falter in recent weeks and now appear to be limping to the finishing line.

    Roberto De Zerbi's team are winless in their last five Premier League games (two draws, three defeats) and sit six points adrift of the top seven with matches against Bournemouth, Aston Villa, Newcastle United, Chelsea and Manchester United to come.

    Brighton have even seen their supply of goals dry up, scoring just four times in eight league matches since thrashing Sheffield United 5-0 in February. 

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