Even in these extraordinary times, Barcelona letting Luis Suarez go to Atletico Madrid is starting to look like the oddest decision of the season.
Suarez's double over Eibar on Thursday secured a 2-1 victory for the league leaders, who are seven points clear at the top with a game in hand over champions Real Madrid in second.
The Uruguay star, who has netted six in his past six league games for Atleti, is joint-top of the division's scoring charts alongside former team-mate Lionel Messi.
It seems increasingly likely that Suarez, and certainly Atletico, will be at the top of the tree come the end of 2020-21.
With the majority of sides having now played half of their matches, the Stats Perform AI team have run the numbers to simulate how the rest of the LaLiga campaign will play out – and it's good news for Diego Simeone.
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality.
Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly.
All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position.
ATLETICO WIN AT A CANTER
Atletico have been given a 75.1 per cent chance of winning LaLiga, according to the model.
Simeone's men are predicted to finish on 86 points, nine clear of the rest of the field. They are given just a 17.8 per cent chance of coming second and dropping outside the top four is considered practically impossible.
Barcelona and reigning champions Real Madrid are predicted to end with 77 points apiece, with just a 12.4 per cent chance each of pipping Atleti to the title. Madrid have a 41 per cent chance of finishing second, slightly above Barca's 39.4, having beaten Ronald Koeman's side 3-1 in the first Clasico of the season at Camp Nou last October.
Those two are, at least, very likely to end up in a Champions League place. They are expected to be joined there by Sevilla, who have a 47.8 per cent chance of finishing fourth on 65 points, just three above Villarreal and six clear of Real Sociedad. The remaining European spot is predicted to be a close battle between Granada, Getafe and Real Betis, with Diego Martinez's men odds on to snatch it.
Valencia fans might be enduring a difficult time (again), and our sim has Los Che missing out on European football once more, if only by four points. That said, they still have a 3.6 per cent chance of a Europa League spot, which is better odds than those given to Supercopa de Espana winners Athletic Bilbao.
WOE FOR HUESCA
At the other end of a relatively tight table, in which just 11 points will separate seventh from 16th, it looks like Huesca are in for a tough run-in. They are given a 59.7 per cent chance of finishing bottom of the pile and just a 5.1 per cent shot at avoiding relegation, having won only once so far this term.
Osasuna are predicted to end up just four points above them, with the bottom three likely to be completed by Deportivo Alaves, although Elche will also be right in the mix. In fact, with those two tipped to finish level on 39 points, survival could come down to their head-to-head record, making their showdown on May 11 potentially decisive. Elche have the advantage there, having won the reverse game 2-0 away from home.
Real Valladolid are expected to have just enough to stay out of trouble, although they have scant room for manoeuvre, with our predictor giving them an equal 15.1 per cent chance of finishing 17th and 18th.
Eibar and Cadiz are looking likely to stay safe; indeed, Jose Luis Mendilibar's men, along with Celta Vigo and Athletic, are given a 0.1 per cent chance of gatecrashing the top four. They might well have boosted those odds this week were it not for that pesky Suarez.
Bellingham alone won't win Euros for England - Desailly
England cannot rely on Real Madrid midfielder Jude Bellingham alone to win them the Euro 2024 crown, according to France great Marcel Desailly.
Bellingham has enjoyed a sensational debut campaign at Madrid that has seen him score 21 goals in all competitions and assist eight more.
Despite still being aged just 20, the youngster will already have the weight of a nation on his shoulders in the European Championship finals.
Desailly is a big fan of Bellingham, but he suggests Gareth Southgate may have to consider tweaking formation if England are to succeed.
"Too much quality can kill the quality," Desailly told Stats Perform. "This is your problem, you see?
"All the players have to be able to perform at the same time and help each other. The Dutch have had this kind of problem in the past.
"The Dutch always have high levels of expertise, but every time it was difficult for them to all unite together at the same time and perform.
"The talent is there for England, even though Fabio Capello has said their defence is a bit weak, which I agree with.
"But too much quality kills the quality. Let's see how the coach is able to adjust the side and make certain choices.
"He may have to remove some of the players into a different tactical system to protect the team for the performances needed."
Bellingham's latest goal came in added time to earn Real Madrid a 3-2 win over Barcelona in a thrilling Clasico clash last weekend.
He is already being mentioned as a frontrunner to win this year's Ballon d'Or, which could depend on how England perform in the Euros.
The ex-Borussia Dortmund ace is also being likened to one of the all-time greats in Zinedine Zidane, but Desailly says there is a long way to go.
"In the game against Barcelona, he wasn't outstanding yet he was still key for his team," the World Cup 98 and Euro 2000 winner said.
"Carlo Ancelotti took Vinicius Junior off because he knew what Bellingham could give him in that position.
"He also has the legs to defend and score the killer goal, or use his cleverness for the collective of the team.
"He's a good player. But trying to compare him to Zidane? It is difficult for us to accept he could be at that level.
"There are differences between them, but the potential of the talents is quite similar."
Courtois set to return from injury after long absence
Real Madrid goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois is set to return for the final stretch of the season after making a full recovery from two knee injuries, Carlo Ancelotti said.
Madrid boss Ancelotti said he will be cautious with Courtois, who has not played this season after sustaining an ACL tear in August and a torn meniscus in March.
Stand-in Andriy Lunin will start Friday's LaLiga match at Real Sociedad and Tuesday's Champions League semi-final, first leg at Bayern Munich.
However, Courtois should be back next week.
"I have to think carefully about the lineup moving forward. There has been a lot of wear and tear. Courtois is fine, he will be available next week and could play against Cadiz," Ancelotti said in a press conference on Thursday.
Courtois's injury was expected to be a serious blow for Madrid's hopes this season, but Ukrainian Lunin has been an able stand-in, establishing himself as first choice ahead of former Chelsea keeper Kepa Arrizabalaga in the Belgian's absence.
Lunin was Madrid's penalty hero as they beat Manchester City to reach the Champions League semi-finals, making two saves in their 4-3 shootout win after an inspired performance as they drew their quarter-final second leg 1-1.
The 31-year-old Courtois, however, is widely considered to be one of the best goalkeepers in the world and is likely to regain his starting spot with a LaLiga-Champions League double up for grabs.
He was named Player-of-the-Match in the 2022 Champions League final after producing a memorable performance, making nine saves to deny Liverpool as Madrid clinched a record-extending 14th European title with a 1-0 win in Paris.
Madrid are brimming with confidence following their 3-2 comeback win over bitter rivals Barcelona on Sunday.
The LaLiga leaders' pursuit of a record-extending 36th Spanish title gathered momentum as they moved 11 points clear of second-placed Barca with six games left.
Jude Bellingham and Rodrygo are doubts for Friday's game due to illness and Ferland Mendy is still recovering from a leg injury, but Ancelotti said his side will go all-out as they look to edge closer to the league title.
"With all the enthusiasm in the world, the objective is very clear, there are seven points left for us to win the league. We have to get them as soon as possible," Ancelotti said.
"Until the mathematics don't guarantee us the title, we have to fight. The momentum is very good, it's important that we continue to compete and get the most out of it. Win as much as possible. Winning is the best thing to keep momentum going, that's why we have to win tomorrow."
'There are no gimmies' – Dyche warns Everton not to step off the pedal
Everton's big win over Liverpool shows they are "sticking to the task", so says Sean Dyche, who knows his team must keep their feet on the ground as they aim to overcome Brentford.
The Toffees won 2-0 at Goodison Park on Wednesday, taking a huge stride towards Premier League safety and denting their rivals' title hopes in the process.
Everton moved onto 33 points, eight clear of 18th-placed Luton Town with four games remaining.
It means that, should Luton fail to beat Wolves on Saturday, Everton - who face Brentford at home in an evening kick-off - would be able to ensure their safety with a victory.
Dyche, though, is taking nothing for granted.
Reflecting on the derby victory, Dyche said: "Well, it certainly says we're sticking to task, whatever comes at us. I'm certainly proud of that, because we've had some ups and downs ourselves.
"But it has to be parked because another one is coming around. Another important game, another chance, another opportunity to play at Goodison and get three points, so there is a lot on the next game. So they do have to have a window to enjoy that last night.
"That's the challenge. Of course, I said enjoy the moment, but I said let's go and do it again.
"It's a decent outfit in Brentford. They had a funny spell themselves and have come out of that.
"It's not easy. There are no 'gimmies' in this league. I praised the players first last night and then said 'Right, tomorrow we come in and get on with business'.
"We've taken big steps, but there are more to come. We can control the situation ourselves, and that's what we have always aimed to do - even with the points taken away and all that sort of stuff. Grip hold of it and let's run with it and I think we're beginning to show that again. Three wins out of four now: three home wins, clean sheets, good signs."
Brentford boss Thomas Frank said: "It's been a tough season - everyone is in the Premier League, no matter where you are in the table. But this season in particular because of injuries and other things that have been happening."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Everton - Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Calvert-Lewin was immense against Liverpool, scoring for the third time in four Premier League appearances. The striker netted in Everton's 3-1 win over Brentford in the reverse fixture in September.
Brentford - Bryan Mbeumo
Mbeumo has been involved in nine goals in his last 10 Premier League starts, while Brentford have won 39 per cent of their league games when the Cameroonian has started this season (7/18), compared to 12.5% when he has not (2/16).
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Brentford have scored eight goals in their last two Premier League away games, netting five on the road for the first time ever in the top flight last time out at Luton.
Everton have opened the scoring in each of their last four Premier League meetings with Brentford, doing so in the opening 10 minutes of the match on three occasions in that run.
None of the 10 league meetings between Everton and Brentford at Goodison Park have ended in a draw, with the Toffees winning seven of these to the Bees' three. However, the Opta supercomputer is predicting a draw is a likely result.
Having been unbeaten in their first three Premier League games against Everton (W2 D1), Brentford have now lost their last two against the Toffees.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Everton - 32.4%
Brentford - 38.2%
Draw - 29.4%
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
