The Ligue 1 title tussle between Paris Saint-Germain and Lille is going to the wire, and it is Les Dogues who hold a slender advantage heading into the final day.
Lille could have won the title – their first since 2010-11 – last week had they beaten Saint-Etienne and PSG dropped points against Reims.
Neither of those outcomes came to fruition, however, and Lille are just one point ahead with one game left to play. It is the smallest gap between a leader and the second-placed team at this stage in a Ligue 1 campaign since 2001-02.
Christophe Galtier's team need only to beat Angers to guarantee their triumph, but the mid-table team are one of the only three sides Lille have lost to this season in Ligue 1, while PSG face Brest.
Just below the title battle, Monaco – who have a slim chance of taking top billing – and Lyon are vying for the final Champions League spot.
Monaco could yet end up at the summit, but Niko Kovac's team would finish fourth if they fail to beat Lens and Lyon defeat Nice.
At the other end of the table, there is potential for drama, with six teams between 18th-placed Nantes and 13th-placed Reims involved in a relegation scrap.
It has been a tightly fought contest throughout the season at the top of the table, but all will be decided on Sunday.
How does the predictor work?
First of all, here's how we got the data...
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position. The points total is based on an average of the predicted points from the simulations of the league outcome.
Let's see how the model now predicts the final league table will look...
Lille likely to pip PSG to the post
Our model suggests that it will be Lille who hold firm to triumph this season, and claim their fourth Ligue 1 crown in the process, giving Les Dogues a 57.9 per cent chance of finishing top.
Lille did lose to Angers earlier this season, but they had won the previous three matches against them.
Angers, though, have only failed to score in two of their 18 Ligue 1 home games against Lille, doing so in their first such meeting in September 1957 (0-0) and in their most recent in February 2020 (0-2).
However, Lille's away form is superb – they have won 11 of their last 12 Ligue 1 games on the road.
Opta's AI predicts a 34 per cent chance of Lille finishing second, and an 8.9 per cent of them finishing third. The latter outcome would require Lille to lose, PSG to avoid defeat, Monaco to win, and there to be at least a six-goal swing in goal difference in the principality club's favour.
For PSG, the model offers them a 45.7 per chance of finishing second. If they drop points at all, then Lille will only need to draw to win the title, while a defeat – combined with a Monaco victory – would see Mauricio Pochettino's team finish third. Opta predict there is a 10.9 per cent chance of this happening.
There is very slim potential (3.1 per cent) for PSG to finish outside of the Champions League places and in fourth, but the goal difference swing required (17) would be bordering on the realms of impossibility.
PSG have a 40.3 per cent chance of finishing top, with Monaco not technically out of the running – they have a 2.6 per cent chance.
Monaco would need both Lille and PSG to slip up for that to occur. However, their main focus is to secure Champions League football.
Opta suggests this may be tough, with Lyon – led by the in-form Memphis Depay – given a 43.2 per cent chance of snatching third place, with Monaco destined for fourth. This is due in part to their poor record away at Lens in Ligue 1, where they have won just one of their last 14 top-flight games.
Bad luck for Brest
In the relegation scrap, Opta predict that Nantes, who currently occupy 18th place or Brest are the most likely teams to have to play-off against Toulouse or Grenoble Foot for a place in next season's Ligue 1.
Brest of course face PSG, and they have lost their last three Ligue 1 home games against the capital club, giving them a 50 per cent chance of finishing 18th.
Nantes are in action against Montpellier, and the model suggests their most likely finishing position is also in the bottom three (35.8 per cent), though only one unwanted place is up for grabs.
Reims, who sit in 13th, are not mathematically safe, with only two points between them and Nantes, but they are predicted to secure their top-flight status for next season.
Lorient, Bordeaux and Strasbourg could also be dragged into the relegation/promotion play-off place.
‘No regrets’ says Pep Guardiola after Manchester City loss in Champions League
Pep Guardiola insisted there were no regrets after Manchester City’s bid to retain their Champions League crown ended in a heartbreaking penalty shoot-out loss to Real Madrid.
The holders were beaten 4-3 on spot-kicks by the Spanish giants after their quarter-final tie ended 4-4 on aggregate – 1-1 on the night – despite a dominant display from Guardiola’s side in the second leg at the Etihad Stadium.
City fell behind early to a Rodrygo goal but created a host of chances as they sought to regain control of the tie but Kevin De Bruyne’s 76th-minute equaliser was their only reward.
City manager Guardiola said: “I would have preferred to win but congratulations to Real Madrid, they defended so deep with incredible solidarity and we did everything.
“I don’t have any regrets about what we have done. Always we try to create more chances and concede less, because we believe that helps you to win and we did everything.
“We played exceptionally in all departments and unfortunately we could not win.”
Bernardo Silva and Mateo Kovacic both missed in the shoot-out, with the former’s effort proving a particularly comfortable save for Andriy Lunin.
Guardiola refused to blame the Portuguese for his failure to register.
He said: “Bernardo asked to take it, he’s a reliable player and decided to shoot in that way. What a game he had played. It happens.”
Guardiola also had no complaints about Real’s tactics, with the Spanish side forced to sit back and defend deep for much of the game.
“I don’t judge,” he said. “I’m not here to do this. It’s football. In this competition, that’s the way football happens.”
City’s loss also ended their hopes of winning a second successive treble and they must now pick themselves up for Saturday’s FA Cup semi-final against Chelsea at Wembley.
Guardiola said: “Now we will rest and on Friday we travel to London to play the game.
“We will see how people will react. Of course the recovery is easier when winning, rather than losing, but it is the semi-final of the FA Cup and we will try to compete as much as possible.”
Real manager Carlo Ancelotti admitted the strength of City had forced them to soak up pressure and look to take the tie on penalties.
The veteran Italian said: “We defended really, really well. This was about survival. Madrid is a club based on always fighting to stay in situations where there seems to be no way out – but we always find a way.
“By the time the penalty shoot-out came, we were totally convinced we’d go through.
“This is about the only way you can come to City and win. You work, sacrifice and win however you can.”
Mikel Arteta: What Arsenal still have to play for is beautiful
Mikel Arteta wants Arsenal to end their season in “beautiful” fashion after they were knocked out of the Champions League by Bayern Munich.
The Gunners lost 1-0 at the Allianz Arena as Joshua Kimmich’s second-half header was enough to seal a semi-final against Real Madrid with a 3-2 aggregate victory.
It followed on from a 2-0 home loss to Aston Villa on Sunday that has dented Arsenal’s Premier League title chances.
They travel to Wolves on Saturday evening needing a reaction to a poor week and Arteta feels his side will approach the game in the correct manner.
Asked how painful the Champions League exit was, the Spaniard said: “It’s there.
“It’s not going to go away, certainly tonight, but I can guarantee you by tomorrow we’re fully focused on Wolves and everybody is lifted.
“What we still have to play for is beautiful. I said before it’s time to be next to these players.
“It’s easy to be behind them and praise the players and talk nice things when we win 10 in a row and one draw.
“The moment is now to be behind them and be next to them.”
After a tight game in which Bayern also hit the woodwork twice and Gabriel Martinelli missed a glorious chance to put the away side ahead, Arteta said his side are continuing to learn after returning to the Champions League for the first time in seven years.
“We haven’t played this competition for seven years and we haven’t been in this stage for 14 years,” he added.
“There’s a reason for it. We want to do everything fast forward, super quick in one season. I think we have the capacity and the quality to be in the semi-final because the margins are very small.
“Those margins are coming from something else that maybe we don’t have yet. We have to learn it. When you look historically it took other clubs seven, eight or 10 years to do it. Today that’s not going to make us feel better that’s for sure.”
While Arsenal are still relatively inexperienced at this level, Bayern are now preparing for a ninth semi-final in the competition since the Gunners last made it that far.
Manager Thomas Tuchel also becomes just the second man, after Jose Mourinho, to guide three different clubs to the final four and was pleased with the performance of the hosts.
“It’s always better to play in front of your own fans,” he said.
“With every tackle and every good action you get the support and it lifts you and gives you a second wind.
“Now it’s the semi-finals and everyone needs to step up – we need to step up and the supporters need to step up again.
“It was a chess game in the first half. Nobody wanted to make the first mistake. Everyone played a bit safe – there were moments for us, there were moments for Arsenal.
“We encouraged the team at half-time to show a bit more personality, a bit more courage. We were more fluid and played a fantastic second half. We deserved to win.”
I still believe – Philippe Clement not losing hope despite title setback
Defiant Philippe Clement still believes Rangers can win the cinch Premiership title despite another set-back with a goalless draw at Dundee.
The Ibrox side lost for the first time ever against Ross County on Sunday in the poorest performance since the Belgian replaced Michael Beale last October and he was looking for a response against the Dark Blues, who had clinched a top-six place at the weekend.
However, in a game played at the third time of asking after the Dens Park pitch was twice ruled unplayable, the visitors could not get the breakthrough and were booed off the park by angry supporters.
The Ibrox side were eight points behind league leaders Celtic at one point and with five post-split matches remaining including a trip to Parkhead, they are three points behind but asked if they could still win it, Clement said: “I still believe that.
“I was maybe the only one in Glasgow who believed that in October, probably the only one of the whole town who believed that.
“We are now six months later and if we win all our games then there is a really big possibility for that.
“I think that is already a big step forward and I believe in this group, because I have seen what they have done this season already. They can do it again.
“Of course it is frustrating because you want to win, of course. You see the team gives everything for that. There was only one team who deserved to win this evening if you see the possession and the chances. It is frustrating if you have those things and don’t have the points.
“It would be concerning if it was the same performance as Sunday. That was not the case.
“So, there were a lot of things much better, it was also needed because Sunday was our worst performance in the six months that we’ve been together.
“Then it’s a pity that they show better things but don’t get the result behind you. But, it’s about standing up and being ready for Sunday again, to take the result.
“If they keep on pushing what they did today then results come also because that’s not big difference from how they played a few weeks ago or a few months ago.”
Ahead of the Scottish Gas Scottish Cup semi-final against Hearts at Hampden Park on Sunday, Clement asked for the backing of the Gers fans who were left so frustrated.
He said: “They need to stick with the team. That is super important. It is winning together and losing points together.
“I know as a fan you have the emotions and for sure after the game. But they have been great the last couple of months and pushing the team over difficult moments. That is what I expect also in this situation.
“They expect that the team gives everything to win games. Maybe in the next weeks they can push the team a few times over the line, or the ball over the line.”
Tony Docherty strongly disagreed with Clement’s assertion that only one team deserved to win the game.
“I thought it was, again, a really fantastic performance by the team,” said the Dundee boss, who revealed skipper Joe Shaughnessy will have a scan on a knee injury which saw him limp off early in the first half.
“I thought we went toe to toe with a really good Rangers team which has a huge motivation in the title race.
“But who had the more motivation in that game there?
“I thought my players served up a fantastic performance out of possession and in possession.
“I couldn’t be more pleased with them because I thought their focus going into the last two games was outstanding.
“And I thought we got our rewards tonight.”
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