EPL

Premier League Fantasy Picks: Back Kane to make north London derby history

By Sports Desk December 04, 2020

Spectators will be allowed back into some grounds for this weekend's round of Premier League fixtures, which means Tottenham will have the backing of 2,000 fans when they take on Arsenal in Sunday's north London derby.

December promises to be a hectic month for every team, and Premier League leaders Spurs will be aiming to keep themselves in pole position.

Using Opta data, we've come up with our latest weekly selection of fantasy picks, which might give some aspiring managers an edge heading into the festive period...

 

LUKASZ FABIANSKI

West Ham have shot up the table after a run of three straight wins, and sit in fifth place.

Goalkeeper Fabianski, who has conceded 11 times in total, has been crucial, with David Moyes' side conceding just once over the course of their winning run.

The former Arsenal keeper has prevented more goals (2.21) than any other Premier League goalkeeper this season, and seems set for another busy game when Manchester United visit London Stadium.

 

BENJAMIN MENDY

Given he is such an attack-minded full-back, it is hard to believe it took Mendy until last Saturday to score his first goal in English football, as he side-footed Manchester City into a three-goal lead during their 5-0 rout of Burnley.

Mendy may have only just broken his goalscoring duck, but the former Monaco left-back is a regular provider for his City team-mates.

He has registered eight assists in his 40 Premier League appearances – among top-flight defenders to play more than 10 games since his debut in the competition in August 2017, only Liverpool pair Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold have more assists per game – and will be relishing going up against a leaky Fulham defence on Saturday.

LUKE AYLING

Leeds United's versatile defender Ayling looked set to go off injured early on against Everton, yet battled on to help Marcelo Bielsa's side clinch a 1-0 win at Goodison Park last time out.

Ayling has made more tackles than any other defender in the Premier League this season, registering 30 in total ahead of this weekend's clash with high-flying Chelsea.

The full-back has also proved his worth going the other way, with only two defenders – Joao Cancelo and Liverpool's Robertson – having created more chances from open play this term than Ayling's tally of 11.

 

KEVIN DE BRUYNE

A no-brainer of a fantasy pick, De Bruyne was in rampant form against Burnley, creating two of City's five goals and almost getting himself on the scoresheet with a wicked effort which rattled the woodwork.

Since his Premier League debut for Chelsea in August 2013, De Bruyne has provided 71 assists in the Premier League, at least eight more than any other player – this despite the Belgian playing just three games across the first two seasons in that run.

De Bruyne is joined in the top 10 list for assists in the last seven years by City stars Raheem Sterling (43) and Riyad Mahrez (41), while former team-mate David Silva is in second, with 63 to his name. 

 

JAMES WARD-PROWSE

A clever, cheaper fantasy alternative to De Bruyne could well be Ward-Prowse, who has been in sensational form for Southampton this term.

Ward-Prowse has scored four goals and set up a further two, taking his total tally to 26 goals and 24 assists in the Premier League for the Saints – one of just four players to register 50 or more goal involvements for Southampton in the division.

Southampton head to Brighton and Hove Albion for a south-coast derby on Monday, and their captain will be eager to deliver a match-winning display.

 

DANNY WELBECK

Going up against Southampton and Ward-Prowse will be Welbeck, who has made a bright start to his Brighton career.

After netting his first goal for the club in a 2-1 win over Aston Villa, former Arsenal and Manchester United forward Welbeck won a point-saving penalty against Liverpool.

Welbeck has an impressive record against Southampton, having been involved in six goals in his last three starts against the Saints in all competitions (four goals, two assists). 

 

HARRY KANE

It has been more about creating than scoring so far for Spurs talisman Kane this season, with the England captain having provided nine assists in 10 league appearances; crafting 21 chances in total.

Goals have of course come too, with Kane on seven for the campaign, and should he score against Tottenham's rivals Arsenal, he will be the outright highest goalscorer in competitive north London derbies.

Kane is tied on 10 goals with Tottenham great Bobby Smith and Emmanuel Adebayor, who of course played for both clubs. He has been struggling with an injury, but Jose Mourinho expects him to feature.

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  • Is Thiago Alcantara ill-suited to Liverpool's style of play? Is Thiago Alcantara ill-suited to Liverpool's style of play?

    Thiago Alcantara is a rather unique breed of footballer, the type of player who will be almost universally enjoyed such are his breath-taking technical attributes.

    It's like he rolls the passing talents of Juan Roman Riquelme and first touch of Ronaldinho into a single player and saunters around the pitch ensuring the game is played at a pace dictated by him.

    His Liverpool career feels a lot shorter than it actually has been because of his absence through injury, and he'll be hoping his recent return is the catalyst to kick-starting what is resembling a fairly meek title defence.

    But while Thiago has shown flashes of his immense ability in his fledgling Liverpool career, it appears not all are entirely convinced.

    Former Reds midfielder Dietmar Hamann expressed his reservations in an interview with talkSPORT on Tuesday, suggesting Thiago is detrimental to a key part of Liverpool's play; utilising a quick tempo with hard-working midfielders who look to get the ball forward to the front three as soon as possible.

    Hamann urged Liverpool to be cautious about how much influence they let Thiago have, questioning his effectiveness when not in possession and suitability to the Reds' system, concerns that won't have been eased by Thursday's shock defeat to Burnley.

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    An unnecessary luxury?

    First of all, there are only so many conclusions you can make regarding Thiago and his time at Liverpool because he has not featured particularly often, as previously highlighted.

    But the fact is, Liverpool's record in Premier League games he has featured in is quite poor, with only one of those six ending in a victory.

    That win came in his Premier League debut, a 2-0 victory at Chelsea back in September – that's right, it was the game where he completed 75 passes despite only coming on at half-time, a record since Opta began recording such data in 2003-04 among players to play a maximum of 45 minutes.

    The hype after that match was stratospheric – the champions had seemingly added the final string to their bow and they were seemingly set to overwhelm everyone, but it's worth bearing in mind that was a Chelsea side reduced to 10 men before Thiago had even come on.

    Liverpool average just one point per game with Thiago, that more than doubles to 2.2 when he hasn't played – additionally, their win percentage rockets from 16.7 to 61.5 in games the Spaniard hasn't featured in.

    Of course, it's a relatively small sample size, so perhaps take the facts with a pinch of salt – but there are metrics that can shine more light on Thiago's influence.

    One of Hamann's major reservations related to Thiago's desire to dictate play and how he might, in the long run, negatively impact Liverpool's effectiveness off the ball.

    "Liverpool were always good when they weren't in possession, won it and played quickly forward. He's not that type of player, so it will be very interesting when he does play more often now how it's going to change the dynamics of the team," Hamann said.

    It's true, Liverpool do have more of the ball (65.7 per cent compared to 64.7) with Thiago in the side, but the difference is negligible and certainly cannot be pointed to as a cause for worry.

    The supply line

    Then there's the concerns relating to Thiago's style of play potentially impacting supply to the frontline. Well, the Reds average 18.7 shots per game when he plays (up from 14.9 without him).

    There is also no damning evidence to suggest Thiago isn't looking to feed the forwards either, after all, he passed to Mohamed Salah 11 times (a joint high) against Manchester United last weekend.

    He has picked out Salah 36 times in their 365 minutes on the pitch together – so, once every 10.1 minutes. Although that's less frequent than he passes to Trent Alexander-Arnold (once per every 8.2 minutes) and Andy Robertson (8.8 minutes), it shows he is supplying the Reds' most-threatening forward regularly.

    And while the two full-backs had off days against Burnley, can you really blame Thiago for passing to them often? Since the start of last season, they are Liverpool's leading providers of shooting opportunities.

    Additionally, his 14.9 passes into final third of the pitch per 90 minutes is second only to Jordan Henderson (16.2) among Liverpool players this term – Thiago beats him, and every other Red, in terms of successful passes in the attacking third every game, however (25.8, compared to Henderson's 20.5).

    "He's not that type of player"

    It's fair to say Thiago probably isn't best known for what he brings to teams off the ball, but despite some seemingly questioning him in this department, he appears to be at least pulling his weight.

    In fact, he's averaging marginally more tackles per 90 minutes than Henderson (1.5 over 1.4), while no one in the Liverpool team is intercepting opposition passes as frequently as the Barcelona product (2.8 per 90 mins).

    On top of that, he's ranked third in the squad for duel involvements (14.7 per 90 mins) – while not necessarily an indicator of excellence on its own, that should at the very least dispel any questions regarding his work rate.

    On an individual level when you look at the data, Thiago doesn't appear to be out of place stylistically. While he may occasionally spend more time on the ball than some of his midfield contemporaries, he possesses the kind of technical wizardry that arguably no other Liverpool player has and that is surely a positive rather than a negative.

    He's also clearly a hard-working player who offers plenty off the ball. So, while the Reds are going through a tricky patch at the moment, Thiago's abilities should be embraced rather than looked upon with suspicion.

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