EFL

Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

By Sports Desk March 28, 2024

The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

 

Ipswich Town

Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

 

Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

Leicester City

Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

Leeds United

So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

 

Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

Related items

  • Derby seal Championship return with Carlisle win as Cheltenham drop to League Two Derby seal Championship return with Carlisle win as Cheltenham drop to League Two

    Derby County sealed a Championship return by beating already-relegated Carlisle United 2-0 at Pride Park on the final day of the League One season.

    Derby knew a single point would end their two-year stay in the third tier of English football, with Bolton Wanderers waiting to pounce if the Rams did suffer a shock defeat.

    However, such a slip-up never looked likely as Max Bird's powerful strike from outside the area put them ahead within five minutes, and James Collins added a close-range second on the hour mark to make certain of promotion.

    Paul Warne's team finished five points behind Portsmouth, who clinched the title earlier this month, and five clear of Bolton – who needed a late equaliser from Cameron Jerome to draw 3-3 with Peterborough. 

    Bolton will face Barnsley in the play-offs as the Tykes were not punished for their 1-1 draw with Northampton Town, defeats for Blackpool and Lincoln City denying them the chance to gatecrash the top six.

    Fourth-placed Peterborough will face Oxford United in the other play-off semi-final, as the U's clinched a 2-1 win over Exeter City to claim fifth place in the final reckoning. 

    Three of the four relegation places had already been decided before Saturday's matches, with Carlisle, Port Vale, and Fleetwood Town on their way to League Two.

    Cheltenham will join them after Nick Freeman struck a 90th-minute winner in their 2-1 loss at Stevenage. Darrell Clarke's side needed a win to save themselves and send Burton Albion down in their place, but they were hit with a late sucker punch as their three-year stay in League One came to an end. 

  • West Ham 2-2 Liverpool: Antonio header damages Reds' dwindling title chances West Ham 2-2 Liverpool: Antonio header damages Reds' dwindling title chances

    Liverpool suffered another blow to their dwindling Premier League title hopes as Michail Antonio's late header snatched a 2-2 draw for West Ham at London Stadium.

    Jurgen Klopp's side disappointed in Wednesday's 2-0 defeat against Everton, with Jarrod Bowen's goal and assist inflicting further pain for the Reds on Saturday.

    Liverpool responded well to Bowen's first-half opener, edging ahead through Alphonse Areola's own goal after Andy Robertson's 48th-minute leveller, only for Bowen to tee up Antonio's headed equaliser 13 minutes from time.

    This draw left Liverpool two points behind leaders Arsenal ahead of the Gunners’ Sunday meeting with Tottenham and one behind Manchester City – who have two games in hand on the Reds – while West Ham remain eighth.

    A tepid opening befitted two sides struggling for form as both failed to carve out any gilt-edged opportunities.

    Liverpool wanted a 27th-minute penalty for Angelo Ogbonna's tackle on Cody Gakpo and, though an offside call against Luis Diaz silenced those appeals, that passage livened the game up.

    Harvey Elliott's curling attempt was held by Areola after Vladimir Coufal went close at the other end, before Diaz blasted a low strike against the West Ham goalkeeper's right-hand post.

    Bowen saw a deflected drive parried behind by Alisson but the West Ham forward headed Mohammed Kudus' left-wing delivery into the far corner from the resulting set-piece two minutes before the break.

    Ryan Gravenberch flashed a powerful half-volley over immediately after the interval – and West Ham did not heed that warning sign.

    Diaz cut inside from the left to find Robertson before a slight deflection off Lucas Paqueta saw Areola caught off-guard as the left-back found the bottom-left corner via the post.

    Gravenberch arrowed narrowly wide before one-way traffic finally paid dividends midway through the second half when Gakpo's miscued strike from Trent Alexander-Arnold's corner forced Areola to turn into his own net after a deflection off Tomas Soucek.

    Alisson kept his side ahead with a remarkable stretching stop to thwart Emerson's volley, yet the Liverpool goalkeeper was powerless when Antonio headed into the top-right corner from Bowen's right-wing centre.

    Elliott almost snatched all three points in the 89th minute but his dipping effort found the top of the crossbar rather than the right-hand corner from long range.

    Reds falter once again

    Under Klopp, Liverpool have only won more Premier League games against Crystal Palace (13) than West Ham (12).

    Yet the visiting Reds faltered once more as what appeared to be a promising season continues to unravel in disappointing fashion for Klopp's final campaign.

    Having threatened an unlikely quadruple at the start of March, Liverpool now require a minor miracle – and slip-ups from Man City and Arsenal – to muster a slight shot at the title.

    Bowen on target but West Ham struggle at home

    Bowen had already found the net in the Premier League and EFL Cup against Liverpool this season and became just the second West Ham player to score in three different games with the Reds in a single campaign – after Geoff Hurst in 1964-65.

    His well-taken headed opener eased the nervous home crowd, yet this draw left West Ham with just one win from their last nine Premier League home games.

    That concerning home form may be what costs David Moyes’ side a higher finish. The Hammers trail seventh-placed Newcastle United by a point, despite the Magpies playing two games fewer.

  • Swiatek soars into Madrid Open last 16 after dropping just two games against Cirstea Swiatek soars into Madrid Open last 16 after dropping just two games against Cirstea

    Iga Swiatek stormed through to the Madrid Open last 16 following a dominant straight-sets victory over Sorana Cirstea.

    The world number one dropped just two games as she inflicted a comprehensive 6-1 6-1 rout on her Romanian opponent in the Spanish capital.

    Swiatek, who was runner-up to Aryna Sabalenka in last year's event, will play Sara Sorribes Tormo in the round of 16 after the Spaniard defeated two-time Australian Open champion Victoria Azarenka.

    The Pole is now 26-4 for the season, in which she has already triumphed at the Qatar Open and Indian Wells Open, as she eyes the ninth WTA 1000 singles title of her career.

    Data debrief

    Swiatek is through to her sixth round of 16 from seven main-draw appearances in WTA 1000 events on clay (85.7 per cent) - the highest percentage rate among players with at least five such appearances since the format's introduction in 2009.

    The three-time French Open champion also boasts the best WTA match win rate of any player since 2000 on clay (87 per cent). Overall, only Chris Evert (94.5 per cent), Margaret Court (89.5 per cent) and Steffi Graf (89.2 per cent) boast a higher percentage in the Open Era.

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.