The Numbers Game: Rampant Rashford and hungry Man Utd seeking more home comforts in quest for silverware

By Sports Desk January 27, 2023

Manchester United look great value to end their six-year wait for silverware in Erik ten Hag's first season in charge at Old Trafford.

In the words of the Dutchman himself, that is far too long a wait for a club of United's stature to go between trophies.

United fans have not had a huge amount to cheer since their 2016-17 EFL Cup triumph, but that could soon be about to change.

The Red Devils remain in top-four contention in the Premier League, are as good as in the EFL Cup final and are also still in the hunt to win the Europa League and FA Cup.

After seeing off Everton 3-1 in round three of the latter, United now have a meeting with second-tier Reading – managed by ex-Red Devil Paul Ince – for a place in the last 16.

Ahead of Saturday's contest at Old Trafford, Stats Perform picks out some of the standout Opta numbers.


We meet again

You'd be right in thinking this fixture has a sense of familiarity about it, with this the 11th time the two sides have been paired in the FA Cup.

That will make this the joint-ninth most-played fixture in the competition's history since 1912, with Arsenal versus Chelsea and Everton against Liverpool (15) top of that list.

United have advanced from nine of those previous 10 ties, the only exception being a 2-1 loss when the sides met in a second replay in the third-round stage in 1926-27.

Among FA Cup ties to have been played at least six times, only five teams can better United's 90-per-cent win rate against a single opponent in the competition.
 

A one-sided affair

The one-sided nature of this fixture is not reserved exclusively for the FA Cup, either.

Reading have won just one of their 22 games against United when taking all competitions into account and have lost six in a row.

Indeed, you have to go back to that cup tie 96 years ago for the last time the Royals came out on top against United, with that match staged at Villa Park.

Across United's six-match winning run against Reading, they have racked up 15 goals and kept three clean sheets in a row.
 

Right Royal misery

Reading know they will have to pull off a big upset if they are to advance, but their record against Premier League sides suggests that will not be happening this weekend.

They have lost seven of their past eight FA Cup matches against Premier League opposition, with their 3-1 win over West Brom in February 2016 the outlier in that sequence.

United are rightly considered huge favourites for this match, then, not least because they have lost only one of their past 39 home games against teams from outside the top tier.

Ten Hag's side are unbeaten in 14 matches at Old Trafford in the FA Cup against any opponent in a run stretching back to a 2-1 loss to Arsenal in 2015.
 

Europe's hottest player

It doesn't help matters that Reading have endured an inconsistent campaign in the Championship, whereas United have – a few games aside – impressed in the top flight.

Ten Hag deserves huge praise for his early work at United, which includes getting far more out of Marcus Rashford in an attacking sense.

The England international has scored 10 goals in 10 games since the World Cup – a tally no other player across Europe's top five leagues can match.

Rashford netted a late penalty in the previous round and has now been involved in five goals in his past five FA Cup appearances, scoring two and assisting three more.

That could spell bad news for Reading, against whom Rashford scored his only previous brace in the competition in a 4-0 third-round victory in January 2017.

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  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

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    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

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    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

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    “The amount owed to The RR McReynolds Company, LLC (owned by McElhenney and Reynolds) at the year-end was £8.977m (2022: £3.714m),” read a Wrexham statement.

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    “These losses were deemed necessary to allow the club to maximise its full potential in the shortest time practically possible.

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    “The year-on-year income comparisons since the takeover, show the potential of the club.

    “These will significantly increase again for the year ending June 30, 2024, following promotion and the continued popularity of Welcome to Wrexham.”

    Wrexham ended a 15-year absence from the EFL last April by winning the National League, while the women’s team also won promotion to the top tier of Welsh football.

    Turnover increased from £5.972m to £10.478m in the year ending June 30, 2023, but losses were up from £2.913m to £5.113m.

    Wrexham payroll rose from just over £4m to nearly £7m, offsetting increased income in retail operation, sponsorship and advertising and football revenue due to the Dragons reaching the fourth round of the FA Cup.

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    Phil Parkinson’s side are chasing a second successive promotion and are currently third in League Two with seven games to play.

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