Most people may assume England's World Cup opener against Iran will be a relatively routine one.
The Three Lions reached the semi-finals in 2018 before making it all the way to the final of last year's rearranged Euro 2020 tournament, and breezed through qualifying for Qatar 2022 with the best goal difference in the group stage of European qualifiers, scoring 39 and conceding only three.
Confidence will be high that Gareth Southgate's team can get going with three points, but a potentially tricky obstacle stands in their way on Monday.
Iran had an impressive qualifying campaign of their own, winning eight of 10 games in the third round of Asian qualifying and conceding just four goals.
They also sit 20th in the latest FIFA rankings, putting them above the likes of Serbia, Morocco and Poland.
Far from ideal as part of their preparations was a change of head coach just two months before the World Cup, with Dragan Skocic surprisingly removed and replaced by Carlos Queiroz to lead Team Melli in Qatar, shortly after he had guided Egypt to the final of the Africa Cup of Nations.
This will be Queiroz's fourth consecutive World Cup as a head coach – the longest ongoing run – and third in a row in charge of Iran after taking over for a second spell.
Iran lost 2-0 to Tunisia in a behind-closed-doors friendly on Wednesday, but Queiroz felt it allowed his team to be better prepared for England.
"Of course, the result is not good," he said. "We don't like to concede goals, we don't like to lose but [there are things] we need to correct.
"We had the best opportunities in the game before the penalty, we missed a few chances to score but the most important is the conclusions that we need to make in order to prepare for England."
Iran are one of 20 teams to have featured at each of the last two World Cups in 2014 and 2018 – of those teams, they have had the fewest shots (47), the fewest shots on target (10) and scored the fewest goals (3) in the group stages across those two tournaments combined.
Meanwhile, England's Eric Dier is not concerned about the high temperatures in Qatar despite the time of year, with the game kicking off at 4pm local time.
"I don't know what kind of impact it will have," he said at a press conference on Saturday. "I've never experienced it before, so it's going to be a first.
"This is normally a tournament which is played in the summer. In Russia [in 2018] it was hot. I wasn't there but during the Euros in England it was hot, so I think we're ready for that and we're playing in the same conditions as our opposition, so it's the same for everyone."
England are the only European team to have reached the semi-finals in each of the last two major tournaments, and will be hoping to start on course for another strong showing at the Khalifa International Stadium.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
England – Harry Kane
England's captain has understandably been integral to their last two runs in the World Cup and European Championship, winning the golden boot at the last FIFA showpiece in 2018, where five of his six goals in Russia came in the group stage.
Kane was also joint-top scorer in European qualifying for this World Cup (12, level with Memphis Depay), and his shot conversion rate of 36.36 per cent was the highest of any player who scored at least six goals.
Iran – Mehdi Taremi
The consensus seems to be that Sardar Azmoun will be the one for England to keep an eye on, which is fair enough given his 40 goals in 63 games for his country to date, though his lack of goals and game time at club level could cost him sharpness, having scored just once in 22 appearances for Bayer Leverkusen since joining in January.
On the other hand, his international strike partner Taremi has 13 goals in 19 games for Porto this season, including five in the Champions League.
Despite only playing six times, no Iran player was involved in more goals during the third round of Asian World Cup qualifying than Taremi (four goals, two assists).
PREDICTION
Despite Iran probably being stronger than many anticipate, England are still justifiably heavy favourites.
According to Stats Perform's AI model, the Three Lions have a 72.2 per cent chance of opening with a win, while the draw is rated at 18.1 per cent.
It would be a moment to remember should Iran pull off an upset, but Queiroz's men have just a 9.7 per cent chance of victory.
FA Cup replays abolished from first round proper next season
FA Cup replays have been scrapped from next season, the Football Association has announced.
The move to abolish all replays from the first round proper onwards is part of a new agreement between the FA and the Premier League which will see an extra £33million going to grassroots football from the top flight each season.
The FA had already scrapped replays from the fifth round onwards and said the move to ditch them altogether had been agreed “in light of changes to the calendar driven by the expanded UEFA competitions”.
The FA said all rounds would now be played at the weekend, with the fifth phase having moved to midweek for the last five seasons.
The FA said the final will now be played on the penultimate weekend of the Premier League season, on a Saturday with no top-flight matches taking place on the same day.
I saw only one team – Rodri bemoans Real Madrid’s tactics after City’s Euro exit
Rodri claims he “saw only one team” trying to win as he bemoaned Real Madrid’s tactics following Manchester City’s heartbreaking Champions League quarter-final loss.
City’s European title defence ended in agonising fashion at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday as the Spanish giants prevailed 4-3 on penalties after a 1-1 draw on the night meant the tie ended 4-4 on aggregate.
It was a clash the holders completely dominated, racking up 33 attempts on goal to the visitors’ eight, but Real defended deep to frustrate them and ultimately ended their hopes of a second successive treble.
City midfielder Rodri said: “To be honest, I saw only one team. In terms of defending, they defended (well). They knew how to suffer and we know how tough Real Madrid are.
“But in my opinion we should go through with that amount of chances but this is the trick of this competition. They know how to play it. We congratulate them.
“We gave everything, there is nothing to regret. This is football sometimes. This shows how difficult it is to win it, as we did last season. It was very frustrating and sometimes it is difficult to explain.”
City’s exit from the competition they won with a Rodri goal in Istanbul last year, coupled with Arsenal’s loss to Bayern Munich, means there are no English semi-finalists for the first time since 2020.
City had to chase the tie after Rodrgyo pounced to put Real ahead after 12 minutes.
They created a plethora of chances in a storming response, with Erling Haaland going the closest in the first half when he headed against the bar.
Further opportunities came and went after the break and it was not until the 76th minute that Kevin De Bruyne finally broke through to net a deserved equaliser.
But De Bruyne spurned a good chance to win it when he fired over soon after and, with extra-time failing to separate the sides, it came down to spot-kicks.
Ederson saved from Luka Modric but Bernardo Silva’s attempted Panenka was too easy for Andriy Lunin, who also denied Mateo Kovavic as Real went through.
The Premier League leaders now have little time to pick themselves up before heading to Wembley for an FA Cup semi-final with Chelsea on Saturday.
Rodri said: “We will have to digest the loss but we will have to wake up, stand up. We still have two more competitions to play for.
“We need the mentality (to be) positive, to find any ambition that right now is difficult to find. Tomorrow we will find it and go against Chelsea, try to be in another final and fight for the Premier League.”
City will need to assess key pair Haaland and De Bruyne who, along with Manuel Akanji, were substituted before the penalty shoot-out.
Haaland was removed at the end of the regulation 90 minutes with the influential De Bruyne leaving the action in the second period of extra-time.
Manager Pep Guardiola said: “Erling and Kevin asked me to go out – they could not continue, like Manu. The game we were playing, they were amazing, but they could not continue.”
Q&A – How Man City and Arsenal exits could impact Premier League’s European race
The prospect of five English clubs competing in next season’s Champions League is hanging by a thread after Manchester City and Arsenal were knocked out of the continent’s premier club competition on Wednesday night.
Here, the PA news agency explains the situation.
Why is there an extra place?From this season, the two countries who collectively perform best in this season’s men’s European club competitions will each gain a European Performance Spot (EPS) for one of their clubs in the following season’s Champions League, which will feature a 36-team league phase from 2024-25 replacing the familiar eight groups of four.
For each of the best-performing countries, the EPS goes to the highest-finishing club in those countries who have not already qualified for the Champions League via their domestic performance. In England’s case, that would be the team finishing fifth – currently Tottenham.
How do the rankings look at the moment?The rankings – known as the association club coefficient – are led this season by Italy. Germany were already ahead of England in the race for the second spot heading into the quarter-final second legs, but the exits of City and Arsenal – coupled with Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund making progress – have widened the gap.
Last Friday – after the Europa League and Conference League first legs had been played – Germany had 16.785 points compared to England’s 16.750, a gap of 0.035. On Thursday morning the gap had grown to 0.767, with Germany on 17.642 and England on 16.875.
How are the points worked out?Teams gain points for wins (two) and draws (one) from the start of the group phase in all three of UEFA’s men’s club competitions. Teams also earn points for participation in the Champions League group phase and for making progress beyond certain rounds in all three competitions.
The association coefficient is calculated by working out an average score – dividing the total number of points the clubs win by the number of clubs representing that country in Europe. So in England’s case any points won by the Premier League representatives are divided by eight.
Can England still do it?In theory yes. West Ham and Liverpool could still meet in the Europa League final if they can overturn first-leg deficits to Bayer Leverkusen and Atalanta respectively on Thursday night, and Aston Villa could still go all the way in the Conference League. That, coupled with the remaining German teams stumbling, means there is still very slim hope.
But Germany certainly have the edge and could even end up with six teams in next season’s Champions League. If Dortmund finish fifth in the Bundesliga but win the Champions League, it would be the second of those achievements which would secure them their Champions League place for 2024-25. The EPS would then be awarded to whoever finishes sixth – currently Eintracht Frankfurt.
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