There really isn't much to split Manchester United and Tottenham right now.
Ahead of Saturday's game at Old Trafford, the Red Devils are two points better off in the Premier League table but having played two matches more. Just a single goal separates them in the goal difference column, too.
They have each won three of their past seven league games, they are heavily reliant on two players scoring the vast majority of their goals, and even their managers, although on very different contracts, are facing uncertain futures. If you stood between the dressing rooms prior to kick-off, you wouldn't be surprised to hear "Lads, it's Tottenham" and "Lads, it's United" bellowed simultaneously behind the closed doors.
Of course, this could be a hugely important fixture beyond deciding which team is playing slightly less mediocre stuff. The top-four race in the Premier League looks likely to run into the deciding matchdays in May, and a win this weekend for either side would give them a huge boost.
It could also offer some clues as to which of Ralf Rangnick and Antonio Conte has so far done a better job, because that, too, is a very difficult question to answer.
Since Rangnick replaced Ole Gunnar Solskjaer as interim manager in late November, United have played 14 in the Premier League, won seven, drawn five and lost two, giving them an average of 1.86 points per game. They have scored 21 goals and conceded 14.
Their victories have come against Brentford, Brighton and Hove Albion, Burnley, Crystal Palace, Leeds United, Norwich City and West Ham. Just two of these teams are currently in the top 10 in the table.
Roughly a month earlier, Conte stepped in for the sacked Nuno Espirito Santo, who lost his job after Spurs were beaten 3-1 at home to United.
In 16 games under the Italian, Spurs have won nine, drawn three and lost four, averaging 1.88 points per game. They have scored 31 times and conceded 16.
Their wins have come against Leeds United, Brentford, Palace, Everton, Leicester City, Manchester City, Norwich and Watford. Just two of these teams are currently in the top 10 in the table.
We told you it was difficult.
Such distinctly average form has not helped to paint a clear picture of either manager's efforts. Spurs will go into this game in a better mood, of course, given they just thrashed an awful Everton side 5-0, while United were humiliated in a 4-1 loss to Manchester City. Still, it's only been a couple of weeks since Conte suggested he might have to resign as he just couldn't handle the thought of more defeats, while United had just scored six across consecutive wins over Brighton and Leeds. Inconsistency is the only constant where United and Spurs are concerned.
There have been definite improvements, though. For one thing, despite Raphael Varane's injury troubles and the overbearing scrutiny on Harry Maguire every time he draws breath, United's defence has got better since the shambolic final weeks under Solskjaer.
In their opening 14 league games this season, United conceded 22 goals – the fifth-most in the division – and kept only two clean sheets. Under Rangnick, they have let in 16 goals – four of those coming at City last weekend – and kept five clean sheets (we are excluding own goals here). They are facing a similar number of shots, roughly 13 per game, but their expected goals against figure has improved from 21.43 to 18.35, suggesting that, under Rangnick, they have limited opponents to more speculative attempts. They have also cut down a deeply worrying number of mistakes: before Rangnick, they committed a league-high 12 errors leading to shots, which has fallen to just three since the German took charge.
Defensive improvement has not been quite as clear under Conte. Although they have conceded as many goals (16) in Conte's 16 matches in charge as they did in 10 under Nuno, Spurs' xGA figure has increased from 15.48 to 19.01, indicating that their seven clean sheets have owed something to Hugo Lloris and a little luck (again, that figure ignores own goals). And while United's error count has dropped, Spurs have committed 11 leading to shots, the second-worst figure in the Premier League since Conte's return. It would be enough to make the former Chelsea boss tear his hair out, if... no, we won't go there.
What about at the other end? A much-discussed issue under Rangnick, and the reason behind all those draws, has been United's inability to take chances. Cristiano Ronaldo, for instance, has only scored one goal in 2022. The numbers highlight an obvious problem: in the league under Solskjaer, United exceeded their expected total this season by just over four (excluding own goals); under Rangnick, they have underperformed by 4.4.
Yet their problems in attack are not for the want of opportunities. Since Rangnick's arrival, only Man City and Liverpool have created more chances and attempted more shots in the Premier League, and only Man City and Spurs have generated more 'big' chances. The problem is that only 68 of United's 208 most recent shots have been on target, and only Liverpool have attempted more from outside the box in that time. When the going gets tough, the shooting gets desperate.
Over the same period, they are fourth for xG and expected goals on target, which measures the quality of an attempt itself. However, the difference between the two is nearly 4.0, and 3.03 if you exclude penalties. Only relegation battlers Burnley (3.53) have had a worse such difference during Rangnick's time in England, which tells you a lot about the standard of United's recent finishing even before you take the opposition goalkeeper's performance into account. They can at least make the argument that, should they keep creating chances at this rate, their luck should begin to turn... eventually.
Spurs' attacking fortunes have felt a bit mixed under Conte. In their past five matches, they have scored three at Man City, four at Leeds and five at home to Everton but drawn blanks away to Burnley and Middlesbrough.
Excluding own goals, they have scored 28 times in the league under Conte from 30.4 xG, giving them pretty similar figures to those under Nuno (eight goals from 10 xG). The average xG value of their shots has increased a touch, though, so they can argue their attacking play is sharpening up.
That's a good sign given Spurs are chasing a couple of milestones at Old Trafford: they could score at least four goals for the third league game in a row for the first time since February 2004, while Harry Kane needs only one away goal to match Wayne Rooney's competition record of 94.
It would be quite the result if Spurs could beat both Manchester clubs away in the same season, and it would give their Champions League hopes a significant shot in the arm. As for which side is showing the best progress... well, perhaps we should let this top-four chase run its course first.
RB Leipzig chief determined to seal top-four Bundesliga finish
RB Leipzig are determined to wrap up a top-four Bundesliga finish, despite fifth spot possibly earning a place in next season's Champions League, the club's chief business officer said on Thursday.
Leipzig, who host Borussia Dortmund on Saturday, are fourth on 59 points, two ahead of Dortmund with four games left in the season. A win would put the Saxony club firmly in the driving seat for a top-four finish.
The top four qualify automatically for the Champions League group stage, although Germany is likely to earn a fifth spot as one of the top two in UEFA's coefficient table depending on the remaining results in European competition this season.
"That (potential fifth spot) involves a lot of data and statistics," said Leipzig CBO Johann Plenge in a media call. "We are not spending too much time on this discussion."
"This is not something we take too much into consideration. We have the ambition to be a top-four club and to be that you have to finish in at least fourth place," he said.
Leipzig, who will go on a U.S. tour from July 28-Aug. 4 and will play Aston Villa in New Jersey, also competed in the Champions League this season, losing to Real Madrid 2-1 on aggregate in the round of 16.
"The match (against Dortmund) is extremely important. We are very focused and 100% confident we will give everything on the pitch," Plenge said.
"I think we have a very good situation to finish the season as a top-four club."
Plenge said for the new season the club planned to hold on to their top performers, unlike last year when several key players, including Josko Gvardiol, Dominik Szoboszlai, Christopher Nkunku and Konrad Laimer, left, forcing a big overhaul.
"We had a very intense transfer period last summer. We developed some great players [for] the Premier League. We want a less intense transfer period and to keep the players together," Plenge said.
"Having them in our team next season is what we will do in the summer."
'There are no gimmies' – Dyche warns Everton not to step off the pedal
Everton's big win over Liverpool shows they are "sticking to the task", so says Sean Dyche, who knows his team must keep their feet on the ground as they aim to overcome Brentford.
The Toffees won 2-0 at Goodison Park on Wednesday, taking a huge stride towards Premier League safety and denting their rivals' title hopes in the process.
Everton moved onto 33 points, eight clear of 18th-placed Luton Town with four games remaining.
It means that, should Luton fail to beat Wolves on Saturday, Everton - who face Brentford at home in an evening kick-off - would be able to ensure their safety with a victory.
Dyche, though, is taking nothing for granted.
Reflecting on the derby victory, Dyche said: "Well, it certainly says we're sticking to task, whatever comes at us. I'm certainly proud of that, because we've had some ups and downs ourselves.
"But it has to be parked because another one is coming around. Another important game, another chance, another opportunity to play at Goodison and get three points, so there is a lot on the next game. So they do have to have a window to enjoy that last night.
"That's the challenge. Of course, I said enjoy the moment, but I said let's go and do it again.
"It's a decent outfit in Brentford. They had a funny spell themselves and have come out of that.
"It's not easy. There are no 'gimmies' in this league. I praised the players first last night and then said 'Right, tomorrow we come in and get on with business'.
"We've taken big steps, but there are more to come. We can control the situation ourselves, and that's what we have always aimed to do - even with the points taken away and all that sort of stuff. Grip hold of it and let's run with it and I think we're beginning to show that again. Three wins out of four now: three home wins, clean sheets, good signs."
Brentford boss Thomas Frank said: "It's been a tough season - everyone is in the Premier League, no matter where you are in the table. But this season in particular because of injuries and other things that have been happening."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Everton - Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Calvert-Lewin was immense against Liverpool, scoring for the third time in four Premier League appearances. The striker netted in Everton's 3-1 win over Brentford in the reverse fixture in September.
Brentford - Bryan Mbeumo
Mbeumo has been involved in nine goals in his last 10 Premier League starts, while Brentford have won 39 per cent of their league games when the Cameroonian has started this season (7/18), compared to 12.5% when he has not (2/16).
MATCH PREDICTION: DRAW
Brentford have scored eight goals in their last two Premier League away games, netting five on the road for the first time ever in the top flight last time out at Luton.
Everton have opened the scoring in each of their last four Premier League meetings with Brentford, doing so in the opening 10 minutes of the match on three occasions in that run.
None of the 10 league meetings between Everton and Brentford at Goodison Park have ended in a draw, with the Toffees winning seven of these to the Bees' three. However, the Opta supercomputer is predicting a draw is a likely result.
Having been unbeaten in their first three Premier League games against Everton (W2 D1), Brentford have now lost their last two against the Toffees.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Everton - 32.4%
Brentford - 38.2%
Draw - 29.4%
Man Utd matchwinner Fernandes: Criticism part of the job
Bruno Fernandes said Manchester United's players cannot afford to get annoyed by outside criticism, after he scored twice to fire the Red Devils to a much-needed win over Sheffield United.
Erik ten Hag's team were roundly criticised for their performance in Sunday's FA Cup semi-final against Coventry City, as they surrendered a 3-0 lead to draw 3-3 before inching through in a penalty shoot-out.
They had also gone four Premier League games without a win (three draws, one defeat) prior to Wednesday's meeting with the rock-bottom Blades, with their hopes of Champions League football all-but over.
They twice trailed as Sheffield United threatened a huge upset, but Fernandes scored twice and supplied an assist as they fought back to claim a 4-2 win.
Asked whether the noise around Sunday's semi-final win had affected the mood at Old Trafford, Fernandes told Sky Sports: "That's part of the job.
"You can be in a run of games where you win eight or nine in a row, and when you lose one you know you'll be criticised.
"Being at Manchester United demands winning every game, so it's part of the job. If there is anyone in the dressing room still not used to that, they will get used to it!
"Being a Manchester United player demands being ready to receive as much criticism as praise. We receive praise when we do good things so we can't be annoyed by the criticism.
"When people want to do that, they might have a point. We can think in a different way, but we have to take it in the same way as we take the credit they give us."
Ten Hag's team did look disjointed for long periods on Wednesday, though, and they have now conceded 50 Premier League goals this season.
The Red Devils have now shipped a half-century of goals in two of their last three Premier League campaigns, having done so just once in their previous 29.
Ten Hag, though, was content with most aspects of their performance, saying: "It was a good game for the crowd, they saw four goals and many chances that we created.
"I think we played quite well, we created many more chances, so there's many positives. But also negatives. Conceding two goals from giveaways, that's unacceptable.
"We want to play dynamic, attacking football. That is what we want to see. Since the winter we have created lots of chances and also scored a lot of those chances."
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