Manchester United have not faced Atletico Madrid in European competition since the 1991-92 Cup Winners' Cup last 16, a tie the Spanish side won 4-1 on aggregate as Luis Aragones got the better of Alex Ferguson.
That was a meeting of two teams on the up: United were a year away from their first of 13 league titles under Ferguson, while Atleti would go on to win consecutive Copas del Rey, with a LaLiga triumph coming in 1996. Twenty years on, Atleti and United meet again in the last 16 of the Champions League, a competition neither is expected to win but one that represents the only means of salvaging their respectively rotten seasons.
It's a difficult one to call. United have become more resolute and less porous under Ralf Rangnick, losing just once over 90 minutes since Ole Gunnar Solskjaer was sacked in late November, but in their 15 games under their interim manager, they have not been tested by elite opposition. Atleti, champions last season, are 15 points off the pace set by Real Madrid in 2021-22 and, in the time Rangnick has been at Old Trafford, they have won six and lost eight of 15 matches in all competitions.
These are well-matched, dispirited teams, who occasionally thrill in attack but always unnerve in defence. Neither looks favourite to win, and neither can afford to lose.
It has, therefore, become a big-pressure situation for the goalkeepers – and that's where form starts to differ wildly.
This will be David de Gea's first competitive meeting with Atleti since he left for United in 2011. He probably didn't imagine he would win fewer league titles than his old club in the decade to follow, but that's another story.
De Gea can at least step onto the pitch at the Wanda Metropolitano on Wednesday knowing he can claim to be one of the best in the business again based on form – a claim that opposite number Jan Oblak certainly can't make.
We know United have been extremely vulnerable this season. In all competitions, they have faced 465 shots, the fifth-highest tally among teams in Europe's top five leagues; 168 of those attempts have been on target, the third-highest number a team has faced. What is particularly worrying is that 21 of their opponents' shots have come directly from United mistakes, the highest number on the continent behind Sevilla (23).
Looking at expected goals on target – a way of measuring not just the quality of a chance (xG) but the quality of the attempt itself – United's figure against stands at 51.1 in all competitions, the third-worst among Europe's top five leagues. And yet, they have conceded 44 goals – far more than pretenders to trophies should be letting in, but around seven fewer than the numbers suggest they should. Much of that is down to De Gea.
In the Premier League alone, De Gea has made 96 saves from 128 shots on target faced, giving him a save percentage of 73.44. No other keeper has made as many stops and only Leeds United's Illan Meslier has faced more attempts, yet Meslier has conceded 50 goals to De Gea's 34. Using that same xGOT model and subtracting goals conceded (excluding own goals), we can work out a value for how many goals a keeper has prevented through saves. For De Gea, that figure is 7.1, the best in the league.
If you include all competitions, De Gea has faced the most shots on target (157) among top-five-league teams apart from Leicester City's Kasper Schmeichel (158), again showing just how fragile United can be without the ball. Looking at that 'goals prevented' metric again, De Gea is at 7.86 – in other words, he's prevented roughly eight goals through the quality of his shot-stopping. Across the continent, only two keepers to play at least 15 times this season can do better.
Preventing goals and high save percentages have traditionally been where Oblak thrives. Since his Atleti debut in September 2014, he has the most clean sheets (167) in Europe's top five leagues and a save percentage of 76.5, the third-highest. According to the data, Oblak has prevented just over 51 goals in that time, at least four more than any other keeper and nearly 20 more than De Gea. It makes his form this season all the more troubling.
Oblak has faced 50 fewer shots on target this season than De Gea – implying Atleti's defence is still stronger than United's, even accounting for their dip in standards – yet he has conceded five goals more than the Spain international. Oblak has saved 61, or 57 per cent, of the shots he has faced this season, which is an alarming drop from his career average of 76.52 per cent in Atleti colours.
Using that same 'goals prevented' calculation, Oblak is at -7.05, meaning he has conceded at least seven goals more than should reasonably be expected. Among Europe's top leagues, only seven keepers come off worse this season, and only four by a significant degree.
There is of course more to a keeper's value than the number of times the ball goes in his net, but these numbers give us a good indication of which ones are performing well when it comes to rudimentary shot-stopping. A 15-goal swing between De Gea and Oblak this season tells you everything you need to know about their recent standards, and why Atleti will have more cause for concern than United in this hugely important knockout tie.
FC Dallas v Houston Dynamo: Arriola says hosts must pay supporters back
Midfielder Paul Arriola says FC Dallas need to start paying their supporters back in Saturday's Texas derby against the Houston Dynamo, having failed to impress in the early stages of the season.
Dallas sit 13th in the Western Conference standings with just five points from eight matches in 2024, their only victory coming against the San Jose Earthquakes in their season opener.
They have only taken two points from seven matches since then, putting head coach Nico Estevez under pressure.
However, Arriola says a clash with their biggest rivals at Toyota Stadium represents a chance to put things right.
"Our fans have been great all season, we haven't shown up for them. It is motivation for us to go and beat Houston on Saturday and obtain three points," he said.
Dallas were beaten 2-1 by the Colorado Rapids last time out, leading Estevez to question his players' character.
"We turned up with fear, lacking in determination and character," the Dallas boss said after that match.
"It is very difficult to play like that because Colorado are one of the hardest working teams in the league on both sides of the ball."
Houston, meanwhile, are preparing for a second straight meeting with a state rival, having suffered a 1-0 home defeat to Austin FC – their third loss of the year – last week.
Star midfielder Hector Herrera made his first appearance of the season from the bench in that match, playing 30 minutes after recovering from a groin injury.
Head coach Ben Olsen said of the Mexican's return: "You can see when he comes on the field, the game changes for the better in some areas.
"Right after he came on, the pressure was turned up on them. We got into so many dangerous spots, but still that connection in the box just wasn't there."
PLAYERS TO WATCH
FC Dallas – Petar Musa
Musa is the only Dallas player with multiple goals to his name in MLS this season, having netted his second goal of 2024 in last week's loss to Colorado.
Can he provide attacking inspiration for a team with just seven goals in eight games this year?
Houston Dynamo – Hector Herrera
While it remains to be seen whether Herrera is ready for a start, he could have a sizeable impact upon his return to action.
Last season, the Mexican led all Houston players for chances created (77), passes into the final third (835) and assists (13) in MLS play.
MATCH PREDICTION – FC DALLAS WIN
Dallas have made their second-worst start to an MLS campaign, only taking fewer than five points by this stage of a season when they earned four in 2009. They did, however, go on to make the playoffs that year.
With home advantage on their side, perhaps things will start to turn on Saturday. The Dynamo haven't won consecutive away MLS matches within a single season for almost 11 years, and they won their last road game 2-1 against Minnesota United.
Dallas tend to turn up for the derby, having gone unbeaten through their last 13 regular-season home matches against Houston (eight wins, five draws) in a run which stretches back to September 2011.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
FC Dallas – 44.6%
Houston Dynamo – 26.5%
Draw – 28.9%
Man Utd matchwinner Fernandes: Criticism part of the job
Bruno Fernandes said Manchester United's players cannot afford to get annoyed by outside criticism, after he scored twice to fire the Red Devils to a much-needed win over Sheffield United.
Erik ten Hag's team were roundly criticised for their performance in Sunday's FA Cup semi-final against Coventry City, as they surrendered a 3-0 lead to draw 3-3 before inching through in a penalty shoot-out.
They had also gone four Premier League games without a win (three draws, one defeat) prior to Wednesday's meeting with the rock-bottom Blades, with their hopes of Champions League football all-but over.
They twice trailed as Sheffield United threatened a huge upset, but Fernandes scored twice and supplied an assist as they fought back to claim a 4-2 win.
Asked whether the noise around Sunday's semi-final win had affected the mood at Old Trafford, Fernandes told Sky Sports: "That's part of the job.
"You can be in a run of games where you win eight or nine in a row, and when you lose one you know you'll be criticised.
"Being at Manchester United demands winning every game, so it's part of the job. If there is anyone in the dressing room still not used to that, they will get used to it!
"Being a Manchester United player demands being ready to receive as much criticism as praise. We receive praise when we do good things so we can't be annoyed by the criticism.
"When people want to do that, they might have a point. We can think in a different way, but we have to take it in the same way as we take the credit they give us."
Ten Hag's team did look disjointed for long periods on Wednesday, though, and they have now conceded 50 Premier League goals this season.
The Red Devils have now shipped a half-century of goals in two of their last three Premier League campaigns, having done so just once in their previous 29.
Ten Hag, though, was content with most aspects of their performance, saying: "It was a good game for the crowd, they saw four goals and many chances that we created.
"I think we played quite well, we created many more chances, so there's many positives. But also negatives. Conceding two goals from giveaways, that's unacceptable.
"We want to play dynamic, attacking football. That is what we want to see. Since the winter we have created lots of chances and also scored a lot of those chances."
Premier League record falls as 2023-24 becomes most goal-laden 20-team season
The current Premier League season has become the most goal-laden 20-team campaign in the competition's history, with Harry Maguire the unlikely man to seal 2023-24's place in history.
Maguire scored Manchester United's first equaliser as they twice fought from behind to clinch a 4-2 win over Sheffield United on Wednesday, with Bruno Fernandes netting twice in the second half.
The centre-back's 42nd-minute header was a significant moment, representing the 1,085th goal scored in the Premier League this term.
That is the most ever scored in a season containing 20 teams, since 1995-96.
The 2022-23 season saw 1,084 goals scored, a tally that was reached on the final day to surpass the previous 20-team record of 1,072, set in 2018-19.
It was somewhat fitting for the record-breaking goal to be conceded by Sheffield United, who have certainly played their part in making 2023-24 the most goal-laden season to date.
The Blades have now shipped 92 goals this term, the most ever conceded in a 38-game Premier League campaign.
With four games to come, including a rematch with a Newcastle United team that thrashed them 8-0 earlier this campaign, the prospect of Chris Wilder's men bringing up triple figures is a realistic one.
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