EPL

Premier League fantasy picks: Man Utd to look to talisman, City duo can increase the heat on Benitez

By Sports Desk November 19, 2021

International football is officially over for another year. *Pauses for cheers or jeers*

With the November international break done with, we turn our attention back to domestic football, with a hectic period set to begin in the Premier League.

More fantasy points will be available over the next seven weeks or so than at any other period in the season, such is the jammed nature of the schedule, and there's no better time to get ahead of the curve.

Stats Perform has delved into the Opta data to pick out seven picks for this week, hopefully giving you the edge...

EDOUARD MENDY (Leicester City v Chelsea)

Leicester City may represent a tricky opponent for any team, particularly given their good options going forward, but if anyone can keep them at bay, it's Mendy.

Not only has the Senegal international conceded the joint-fewest goals (four, excluding own goals, minimum of three appearances) in the Premier League, he also leads the way with 3.4 goals prevented, according to expected goals on target data.

In terms of form goalkeepers this season, Aaron Ramsdale runs him close, but Mendy is the outstanding candidate.

JOAO CANCELO (Manchester City v Everton)

City's versatile Portuguese full-back enjoyed an exceptional 2020-21, but he seems to have stepped things up even further this term.

In 17 games in 2021-22 across all competitions, Cancelo has already reached seven goal involvements (two goals, five assists), just one fewer than his haul of eight in 43 outings last term.

He has been hugely influential at City, while it would also hardly be a surprise if they keep a clean sheet against an out-of-sorts Everton.

TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD (Liverpool v Arsenal)

Liverpool's right-back became something of a scapegoat – fairly or not, that's a discussion for another day – in 2020-21. It is safe to say his critics are rather quieter at the moment.

Only Bruno Fernandes (37) can better Alexander-Arnold's 30 chances created in the Premier League this term, while no defender has more than his four assists.

A resurgent Arsenal could cause Liverpool issues, so a clean sheet is no guarantee, but there is no defender more likely to nab you an assist or two.

CONOR GALLAGHER (Burnley v Crystal Palace)

On-loan Chelsea youngster Gallagher has been a revelation for Palace this season, with his all-action style proving a great addition to Patrick Vieira's team.

He has also provided plenty of quality in the final third, having a hand in a team-high six goals (four goals, two assists).

Gallagher has already beaten his combined tally (two goals, two assists) from 2020-21 when he was on loan at West Brom, and he won his first England cap against San Marino earlier this week.

BRUNO FERNANDES (Watford v Manchester United)

Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's men have seemingly hobbled from 'crisis' to 'crisis' this season, and while Fernandes arguably has not been as impressive as last season, he is still essential to the Red Devils.

He leads the way with the most chances created (37) in the league this term, and that fits into his wider excellence ever since joining United, a period that has seen him supply the most assists (22) and craft the most goal-scoring opportunities (162) of anyone in the competition.

Additionally, only Mohamed Salah (55) has been involved in more goals than Fernandes (52) in the same period. Regardless of perceptions of his form, the Portugal star is a must-have, particularly given United will fancy their chances of bouncing back at Vicarage Road.

GABRIEL JESUS (Manchester City v Everton)

While he may not be playing in the striker role many might have expected before the season started, instead featuring largely as a right-sided winger, Jesus has made a strong start to 2021-22.

With the South American World Cup qualifiers not extended to a triple-header this month, Jesus is also less of a selection risk than he was after the international breaks in September and October.

But above all, he loves playing Everton. In eight Premier League games against them, Jesus has scored eight times, or roughly one every 69 minutes, and he will be aiming to give the Toffees plenty to chew on yet again this weekend.

SON HEUNG-MIN (Tottenham v Leeds United)

Among the players Antonio Conte will be hoping to get more out of after a slow start to the season, Son is surely near the top of the list.

Since the start of last season, no player has outperformed their expected goals (xG) tally by a greater margin than the South Korean (8.2), with 21 goals from 12.8 xG.

Obviously that can suggest a degree of unsustainable fortune on Son's part, but we all know he is an exceptional player capable of the extraordinary. Leeds are a side who let other teams play, and that might be just what the doctor ordered for Son and Spurs.

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  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • Sean Dyche hoping Everton’s latest Premier League charge ‘comes to nothing’ Sean Dyche hoping Everton’s latest Premier League charge ‘comes to nothing’

    Everton boss Sean Dyche is hoping for a quick resolution to the club’s latest profit and sustainability charge and that the case “comes to nothing”.

    The Merseysiders, who have already been deducted six points this season, are facing further punishment over a second alleged breach of the Premier League’s regulations.

    A hearing took place earlier this week and the club are now awaiting a verdict, which should be delivered before April 8.

    Dyche said at a press conference: “They’ve shared the information that was asked of them. It’s too early to get a feel of it and we’re just waiting, really, like we did last time.

    “I’m sure everyone’s hoping that it’s fast-tracked slightly, but we’ll have to wait and see.

    “I don’t think anyone has concrete proof of how or which way these things will go, particularly after the first one.

    “We can only give the information that’s appropriate. I wasn’t there, obviously, but I’m told we’ve given every bit of information that we can give.

    “We hope that they see, accordingly, what the club has been trying to do to make sure we’re within the right areas that they need us to be in. So, therefore, we’ll hope that it comes to nothing.”

    Everton’s punishment and potential further sanction, coupled with a four-point deduction for relegation rivals Nottingham Forest, has confused the situation at the bottom of the table.

    The Toffees are currently four points above 18th-placed Forest, but the East Midlands outfit have an appeal pending.

    There are fears the final positions, and consequently the relegation picture, may not be resolved until after the season has concluded.

    With Everton initially docked 10 points before that was reduced to six on appeal, and the Forest penalty a different figure altogether, Dyche admits he is puzzled.

    “There’s no consistency,” said Dyche, whose side travel to Bournemouth on Saturday hoping to end an 11-game winless run.

    “I don’t know the minutiae of our own, let alone theirs. When you’re in that room, and the way they decide things, maybe there’s different reasons and I can only imagine there’s more depth to it.

    “But in its simplest form, then I think everyone, not just us, said, ‘How’s that? Where did that come from? How does that work out?’

    Dyche, meanwhile, played down reports of a bust-up with defender Nathan Patterson during the club’s recent training camp in Portugal.

    It was claimed Dyche jokingly aimed a slap at the Scot but accidentally caught him harder than he intended, leading to heated exchanges.

    Dyche said: “The old favourite – never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

    “There’s nothing in it, really. It was a joke. I tapped him on the head like your older brother would, and he didn’t get the joke. That was it, basically. There’s no more to it.

    “But of course, that wouldn’t have sold. So, when that does get out everyone has to add layers and layers and layers to it but it’s really that simple. That was it.”

  • Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds owed nearly £9million by Wrexham Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds owed nearly £9million by Wrexham

    Wrexham lost £5million in the year of their promotion to the English Football League and now owe nearly £9m to Hollywood owners Rob McElhenney and Ryan Reynolds.

    But turnover doubled to almost £10.5m and Wrexham say financial losses suffered since McElhenney and Reynolds’ takeover in February 2021 should not be repeated due to the income now generated by the League Two club.

    “The amount owed to The RR McReynolds Company, LLC (owned by McElhenney and Reynolds) at the year-end was £8.977m (2022: £3.714m),” read a Wrexham statement.

    “The financial losses suffered by the club since the takeover shouldn’t be repeated, with income generated by the club now sufficient to meet the operational costs of the club going forward.

    “These losses were deemed necessary to allow the club to maximise its full potential in the shortest time practically possible.

    “The club is under no immediate pressure to repay these loans at the expense of the progress we seek to achieve and further financial support will be provided/secured to support the capital expenditure projects the club is currently planning, which includes increasing the capacity of The Racecourse Ground and the development of a training facility for all the club’s teams.

    “The year-on-year income comparisons since the takeover, show the potential of the club.

    “These will significantly increase again for the year ending June 30, 2024, following promotion and the continued popularity of Welcome to Wrexham.”

    Wrexham ended a 15-year absence from the EFL last April by winning the National League, while the women’s team also won promotion to the top tier of Welsh football.

    Turnover increased from £5.972m to £10.478m in the year ending June 30, 2023, but losses were up from £2.913m to £5.113m.

    Wrexham payroll rose from just over £4m to nearly £7m, offsetting increased income in retail operation, sponsorship and advertising and football revenue due to the Dragons reaching the fourth round of the FA Cup.

    The club has attracted widespread global interest following two successful seasons of the FX documentary series Welcome to Wrexham.

    Phil Parkinson’s side are chasing a second successive promotion and are currently third in League Two with seven games to play.

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