LaLiga is arguably harder to call than ever before heading into 2021-22 – Barcelona no longer have Lionel Messi to guide the way and Real Madrid have seen significant upheaval, so surely the smart money is on defending champions Atletico Madrid?
Diego Simeone's men won the title in 2020-21 after watching Barca and Madrid trade success for seven years and look in good shape given they've not lost any major players. But can you really write off the 'big two'?
Well, you shouldn't, according to Stats Perform predictions.
The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Without further ado, let's look at what could occur over the 2021-22 LaLiga season.
ANCELOTTI DELIVERS THE GOODS
Carlo Ancelotti's back at the Santiago Bernabeu, and so – it seems – will the Spanish title. The Stats Perform model calculates Madrid have a 42.3 per cent chance of taking the crown back from their local rivals.
In fact, if the model proves accurate, Atletico may not even finish in the top two, as their 18.7 per cent chance is a fair bit smaller than Barca's 30.4 per cent likelihood of winning LaLiga.
However, it's worth pointing out that, because the model is based on historical data points and results, the Barcelona that appears here is one that has had Messi in the team for past 17 years.
It's entirely reasonable to expect Barca to see a significant drop-off given they'll no longer have the greatest player of all time on their books – as such, a 30.4 per cent chance of winning the title might actually be quite generous.
THE BIG FOUR?
The 2020-21 season was the tightest LaLiga title fight in recent memory. Although Atletico were 11 points clear at one point, with five matches left there were just three points separating first from fourth.
In that respect, it was the closest title race LaLiga had ever seen in a 20-team campaign (1987-1995, 1997-present) and the least predictable since 2006-07, when Madrid, Barca and Sevilla could all win the league on the final day of the season.
Sevilla's challenge ultimately faded before that stage in 2020-21 but they've managed to keep Julen Lopetegui, their coach, and their squad is largely unaltered for the time being.
The prediction model makes them fourth favourites for the title (6.8 per cent) and far better placed to take the final Champions League spot (69.4 per cent) for the third year in a row than their likeliest challengers Villarreal (36.2 per cent).
There was a 15-point gap between fourth and fifth last season – this is the closest to a 'big four' Spain has had in years.
FOUR TIPPED FOR RELEGATION TUSSLE
Rayo Vallecano, Real Mallorca and Espanyol were the three to come up from the Segunda last season. While most people would ordinarily point to the promoted sides as the most likely to be relegated, the prediction model disagrees.
It gives Mallorca a 30.7 per cent likelihood of going straight back down, and Espanyol are at 17.6 per cent – neither of those are among the bottom three, though Rayo (45.9 per cent) are seen as the second favourites to head back to the second tier.
But it's Elche (57.9 per cent) who are the clear front-runners in this regard, and then it looks agonisingly close for the third and final relegation spot.
According to the predictor, it's likely to be neck-and-neck between Deportivo Alaves (41.1 per cent) and Cadiz (41.9 per cent).
Former Arsenal and Man City striker Adebayor announces retirement aged 39
Former Arsenal and Manchester City striker Emmanuel Adebayor has announced his retirement at the age of 39.
The ex-Togo international also had spells with Real Madrid, Tottenham and Crystal Palace during a professional career that started in 2001 with Metz.
Adebayor departed Metz for Monaco in 2003 and it was there where he caught the eye of legendary Gunners boss Arsene Wenger, who brought him to the Premier League in January 2006.
City forked out a reported £25million fee for his services in July 2009 and he famously sprinted the length of the pitch to celebrate a goal in front of the Gunners' supporters in September that year.
He joined Real Madrid for a short loan spell in January 2011 after falling out of favour under Roberto Mancini and then moved to Tottenham – initially on loan – in August that year.
After having his contract terminated by mutual consent in September 2015, Adebayor had a nomadic end to his career, featuring for Palace, Istanbul Basaksehir, Kayserispor and Olimpia before returning to Togo with Semassi in July 2021.
Announcing his retirement with a video on Instagram, Adebayor wrote: "SEA, from the highs to the lows, my career as a professional athlete has been an incredible journey.
"Thank you to my fans for being there every step of the way. I'm feeling so grateful for everything, and excited for what's to come!"
Will Still harbours Premier League ambition and may follow Vincent Kompany route
Will Still has ambitions to manage in the Premier League and would be open to following a similar route to Vincent Kompany by moving to a Championship club.
The 30-year-old has been one of the most talked about coaches in European football this season after doing a fine job with Ligue 1 side Reims.
Taking over from Oscar Garcia in October, Reims embarked on a club-record 19-game unbeaten league run until a 2-1 reverse at home to Marseille on Sunday – with Still taking charge for 17 of those.
Still, whose only other defeat as boss was in the Coupe de France, was brought up by English parents in Belgium before moving to England as a teenager where he studied to become a coach.
His name was mentioned for recent managerial posts at Leeds United and Southampton and, while he believes it is too soon to have been touted for such positions, Still would love a crack at England's top flight one day.
"It just seems completely stupid to me that my name is being put up against names that have done so much more and have been so many more places than I have," he told Sky Sports.
"I wouldn't ever dare to compare myself to those people.
"I've never really thought about it [managing in the Premier League] because I never expected to be in the position I am so early and so suddenly. Why not? I've done some crazy things in the past; I was head coach at 24 and the same thing happened at 28 back in Belgium and now I'm 30 and people are saying this is crazy.
"Being English and growing up in an English environment in Belgium, England has always felt like home and a place that I'd love to go back to. It would feel like coming home, just because the English culture is part of me, part of my roots, part of my family, part of who I am.
"I think if you asked any kid what they would like to do, they'd say they'd love to be a Premier League footballer or manager and I'm no different. I was brought up like everyone else and had the same dreams. I'll keep at them.
"If it happens one day I'll deserve it, or I hope I will have deserved it, but I realise how much work there is to do before I get there and how much I've got to learn. For now, I will stick it to one side."
Up until recently, Reims were having to pay a €25,000 fine every time Still took charge of the first team as he did not have a UEFA Pro Licence, but he is now on a course to get his badge.
Still believes that has amplified the interest in his story along with a comment he once made about the popular computer game Football Manager, that he says was misinterpreted.
"With the Football Manager thing, for example – people think I'm some spotty geek behind my computer that's just been dropped in at Stade de Reims and is doing an unbelievable job," he explained. "But I've been doing it for 10 years and the experiences I've accumulated or tried to accumulate have helped me and are still helping me today.
"People say, 'Oh, he's got no coaching badges, no qualifications, he's just played computer games!' I went to university to study football coaching, I've got the highest level diploma you can get, for the moment, in football and I'm studying for the Pro Licence."
In terms of the future, Still remains open to different career paths and mentioned how former Manchester City captain Kompany has excelled with Championship leaders Burnley after leaving Anderlecht as a potential example to follow.
"Vincent Kompany was at Anderlecht last year and has gone into the Championship and has done an unbelievable job. I think the Championship rivals many of the top leagues in the world," he said.
"All the doors are open. I'm not closing anything at any time."
'Shame to waste that performance' - Knicks rue loss as Randle makes franchise history in 57-point haul
New York Knicks head coach Tom Thibodeau says it was a "shame to waste" Julius Randle's 57-point performance in Monday's 140-134 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Randle produced a career-best scoring performance, shooting 19-of-29 from the field with eight-of-14 from three-point range, becoming the 13th different player this NBA season to surpass 50 points.
The power forward scored 26 points in the third quarter, making franchise history for the most points ever by a Knicks player in any single quarter.
Randle also became the first player Knicks since Carmelo Anthony in 2014 to reach 50 points, which was the longest active drought by any franchise, except the Orlando Magic dating back to Tracy McGrady in 2004.
Only two players have scored more points in a single game in Knicks history, led by Anthony with 62 in 2014 against the Charlotte Bobcats and Bernard King with 60 in 1984 against the New Jersey Nets. Randle's 57 points was tied for third highest in Knicks history.
Despite all that, the Timberwolves edged the Knicks, aided by 58.3 per cent three-point shooting.
"It's a shame to waste a performance like that," Thibodeau told reporters.
Randle had 52 points at three-quarter time and was on pace to surpass both Anthony and King's marks but he was humbled to be close to their company.
"Those are legends in this game," Randle said. "And pioneers, specifically for this organisation, who laid the groundwork and led the way for players like myself to come behind them, be able to play the game I love. Be able to grind, put on that Knicks jersey with pride."
Randle was left to lament fumbling a rebound at 137-134 in the dying seconds, allowing Taurean Prince to make a lay-up to ice the game.
"Hopefully I will be able to [enjoy the 57-point performance]," Randle said. "But tonight, probably not.
"Jalen [Brunson] got a defensive stop, we're down three, it's my job to come up with that rebound, 14 seconds left. If we do that, we have a chance to win the game - or not win the game, but at least tie the game, so I didn't get the job done."
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