LaLiga is arguably harder to call than ever before heading into 2021-22 – Barcelona no longer have Lionel Messi to guide the way and Real Madrid have seen significant upheaval, so surely the smart money is on defending champions Atletico Madrid?
Diego Simeone's men won the title in 2020-21 after watching Barca and Madrid trade success for seven years and look in good shape given they've not lost any major players. But can you really write off the 'big two'?
Well, you shouldn't, according to Stats Perform predictions.
The Stats Perform League Prediction Model, created by Stats Perform AI using Opta data, has analysed the division ahead of the new season to assign percentages to potential outcomes for each club.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on teams' attacking and defensive qualities, which considers four years' worth of results, with weighting based on recency and the quality of opposition. The season is then simulated 10,000 times to calculate the likelihood of each outcome.
Without further ado, let's look at what could occur over the 2021-22 LaLiga season.
ANCELOTTI DELIVERS THE GOODS
Carlo Ancelotti's back at the Santiago Bernabeu, and so – it seems – will the Spanish title. The Stats Perform model calculates Madrid have a 42.3 per cent chance of taking the crown back from their local rivals.
In fact, if the model proves accurate, Atletico may not even finish in the top two, as their 18.7 per cent chance is a fair bit smaller than Barca's 30.4 per cent likelihood of winning LaLiga.
However, it's worth pointing out that, because the model is based on historical data points and results, the Barcelona that appears here is one that has had Messi in the team for past 17 years.
It's entirely reasonable to expect Barca to see a significant drop-off given they'll no longer have the greatest player of all time on their books – as such, a 30.4 per cent chance of winning the title might actually be quite generous.
THE BIG FOUR?
The 2020-21 season was the tightest LaLiga title fight in recent memory. Although Atletico were 11 points clear at one point, with five matches left there were just three points separating first from fourth.
In that respect, it was the closest title race LaLiga had ever seen in a 20-team campaign (1987-1995, 1997-present) and the least predictable since 2006-07, when Madrid, Barca and Sevilla could all win the league on the final day of the season.
Sevilla's challenge ultimately faded before that stage in 2020-21 but they've managed to keep Julen Lopetegui, their coach, and their squad is largely unaltered for the time being.
The prediction model makes them fourth favourites for the title (6.8 per cent) and far better placed to take the final Champions League spot (69.4 per cent) for the third year in a row than their likeliest challengers Villarreal (36.2 per cent).
There was a 15-point gap between fourth and fifth last season – this is the closest to a 'big four' Spain has had in years.
FOUR TIPPED FOR RELEGATION TUSSLE
Rayo Vallecano, Real Mallorca and Espanyol were the three to come up from the Segunda last season. While most people would ordinarily point to the promoted sides as the most likely to be relegated, the prediction model disagrees.
It gives Mallorca a 30.7 per cent likelihood of going straight back down, and Espanyol are at 17.6 per cent – neither of those are among the bottom three, though Rayo (45.9 per cent) are seen as the second favourites to head back to the second tier.
But it's Elche (57.9 per cent) who are the clear front-runners in this regard, and then it looks agonisingly close for the third and final relegation spot.
According to the predictor, it's likely to be neck-and-neck between Deportivo Alaves (41.1 per cent) and Cadiz (41.9 per cent).
Unai Emery extends Aston Villa contract
Aston Villa manager Unai Emery has committed to the club until at least 2027 after his contract was extended.
The Spaniard’s existing deal still had two years to run but he has agreed terms for an additional 12 months, the PA news agency understands.
Villa are also keen to sit down with the 52-year-old in the summer and discuss a new longer-term contract.
Emery has done an impressive job at Villa Park, guiding them from a relegation fight when taking over from Steven Gerrard in November 2022 to the brink of Champions League qualification this season.
They are also in the semi-final of the Europa Conference League, where they play Olympiacos, and are the favourites to win the tournament which would represent a first European trophy since 1982.
Due to his impressive work at Villa Park, he was recently linked with the vacant Bayern Munich managerial position, while a number of other top European clubs will be looking for managers this summer and might have targeted the former Sevilla, Arsenal and Paris St Germain boss.
After Emery guided them to a seventh-placed finish last season, Villa have kicked on this term and are in pole position to finish fourth and qualify for the Champions League for the first time.
They are sixth points ahead of fifth-placed Tottenham, who have two games in hand, and are managing their tough Thursday-Sunday schedule well.
Villa play Chelsea on Saturday night, where they could move nine points clear of Spurs, who play Arsenal on Sunday.
Erik Ten Hag says reaction to Manchester United’s FA Cup win was ’embarrassing’
Erik Ten Hag has branded the reaction to Manchester United’s FA Cup semi-final victory over Coventry “embarrassing” and “a disgrace”.
Having let slip a 3-0 lead at Wembley with 20 minutes to go and then won on penalties after the Championship side had an extra-time goal disallowed for a marginal offside, United were heavily criticised by pundits and fans alike despite making it back-to-back finals.
Ten Hag met a question about whether he understood the response at a press conference ahead of Wednesday’s clash against Sheffield United with a feisty response, saying: “No, absolutely not.
“The question: ‘Is it embarrassing?’ No, the reaction from you was embarrassing. It is the comments. Top football is about results, we made it to a final and we deserved it not only by this game but also the other games.
“We lost control for 20 minutes, we also had bad luck, 3-2, 3-3. We were very lucky in the end, clear. Penalties was very good and we made it to the final, it is a huge achievement. Twice in two years is magnificent.
“For me as a manager, four cup finals in four years. The comments are a disgrace.”
Antony has come in for particular criticism after he cupped his ear with his hand in a mocking gesture towards the Coventry players when Rasmus Hojlund netted the winning penalty.
Ten Hag accepted Antony was wrong but claimed he was provoked, saying: “That’s why, this was a reaction of that, you haven’t seen the provocation, only the reaction. But he should not do it.
“I have seen Harry Maguire straight after and others, we should acknowledge the performance of Coventry to come into that…and the comeback. Also see we are 70 minutes totally dominating the game by far and creating many chances.
“At 3-0 it must have been the game is closed but the return from their side was very good.”
The collapse added further intensity to the spotlight on Ten Hag’s position, and on Friday United announced that Jason Wilcox had left Southampton with immediate effect to become their new technical director.
Ten Hag said he was looking forward to working very closely with the former winger, adding: “We have to form a partnership, it’s very important. We are a little behind in the process so we have to catch up, so we will go and speed up the process.
“I met him yesterday for the first time, we had some talks. This week we will not have so much time but from Monday on we will go forward.
“Of course I know his profile, I know his methods in youth, a lot of experience there and then one year at Southampton. I know his background so I am looking forward to our partnership.”
United’s injury crisis continued at Wembley, with Alejandro Garnacho, Marcus Rashford, Scott McTominay and Bruno Fernandes all picking up problems.
McTominay and Rashford are both doubtful for Wednesday but Ten Hag expects Garnacho and Fernandes to be able to play.
PGMOL to allow Nottingham Forest to hear VAR audio of rejected penalty claims
Nottingham Forest will be given the opportunity to privately hear the VAR audio connected to three penalty claims in their match against Everton last Sunday.
Forest called on Monday for the audio between Stuart Attwell and on-field official Anthony Taylor to be released publicly.
Sources close to referees body Professional Game Match Officials Limited (PGMOL) insist it has nothing to hide and will give the club the opportunity to hear the audio in private, as it would any other club making a similar request.
The PA news agency understands no decision has yet been taken on whether this audio would also feature in the next edition of ‘Match Officials Mic’d Up’, which will air next Tuesday evening.
The audio related to a wrongly disallowed Luis Diaz goal for Liverpool at Tottenham earlier this season was released publicly, but in that instance there had been a serious communication error so the matter was treated differently.
Forest have been contacted by PA regarding the offer to release the audio.
The club have risked Football Association and Premier League sanction over their extraordinary response to the three rejected penalty appeals.
The club said in a statement on Sunday they had “warned” PGMOL that VAR Stuart Attwell “was a Luton fan” but that PGMOL did not change the appointment.
The Premier League said it was “extremely disappointed” by the statement, adding it was “never appropriate to improperly question the integrity of match officials”.
The league said it was investigating the matter in relation to the league’s rules, with regulations B.15 and B.16 governing the requirement on clubs and their officials to behave with utmost good faith.
Forest went on to release a further statement on Monday evening calling for the rules around referees’ allegiances to be updated to account for “contextual rivalries in the league table”.
Referees do already declare allegiances and will not be assigned that team’s matches, or certain other fixtures such as those involving direct local rivals of that club. For instance, Michael Oliver has spoken in the past about he cannot referee Newcastle games because he is a fan.
Other factors that determine appointments include which teams an official’s immediate family members support, as well as performance and the number of times they have officiated a particular team’s matches.
PGMOL takes all of that into account and endeavours to make the best appointments possible when allocating six officials to each Premier League fixture from a pool of 70 to 75, while also fulfilling Championship refereeing appointments.
Ultimately, it has confidence in the impartiality and professionalism of its officials.
No club is believed to have ever questioned the process in the manner Forest have since the birth of the Premier League 32 years ago, and nor have the club raised any concerns in relation to the previous occasions when Attwell has been the VAR at their matches this season.
English officials are clearly well thought of by UEFA, with eight included in the list for Euro 2024 this summer.
Taylor will lead one of two English referee teams at Euro 2024, with Oliver leading the other. Attwell and David Coote have been named as VARs.
Three Forest staff – manager Nuno Espirito Santo, full-back Neco Williams and referee analyst Mark Clattenburg – have been asked by the FA for observations on the comments they made about the officiating at Goodison Park.
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