Predicting the winner of a major international tournament is a natural part of being a football fan, even if it can sometimes be something of a fool's errand – as proven by Greece and Denmark.
But considering how integral statistics are to football these days, using data could potentially give you the edge, and that's where Stats Perform comes in.
Our Artificial Intelligence team have used Opta's extensive data reserves to quantify each team's chances of winning the entire tournament.
Every match has been run through the Stats Perform Euros Prediction model to calculate the estimated probability of the outcome (win, draw or loss). This uses odds from betting markets and Stats Perform team rankings, which are based on historical and recent performances.
It takes into consideration the strength of each team's opponents as well as the difficulty of their respective paths to the final, plus the make-up of the groups and any relevant seedings heading into the knockouts.
Then, the rest of the tournament is simulated 40,000 times and analysed, providing the AI team with a percentage for each nation, showing the probability of them ultimately lifting the trophy at Wembley on July 11.
Without any further ado, let's check out the results, some of which may come as something of a surprise…
MOST-LIKELY WINNERS: France (20.5 per cent)
Well, this one probably isn't much of a shock. Anyone who has looked through the squad at Didier Deschamps' disposal has likely come to the conclusion that Les Bleus will have to implode a la the 2010 World Cup if they're to be beaten.
Most of the key players from their 2018 World Cup-winning squad are present, and now they can call upon the services of Karim Benzema again, which is no small thing.
Our model also gives France a 46.8 per cent chance of finish top of the so-called 'Group of Death', which also includes defending champions Portugal and a Germany side desperate for redemption after World Cup humiliation in Russia.
If France are successful, Deschamps will become the first man in history to win the World Cup and Euros as both a player and manager.
2. Belgium (15.7 per cent)
Could this be the last-chance saloon for Belgium's 'Golden Generation'? Our predictor model certainly suggests they're still in with a great chance of winning the title, with their 15.7 per cent the second highest.
They have the joint-oldest squad at the tournament (29.2 years) along with Sweden, so while they're certainly not a young team, several of their best players are right at the peak of their powers, with Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku coming into the tournament arguably in the form of their lives.
They looked sharp in qualifying – for what it's worth – with a 100 per cent win record and a 40-goal haul that wasn't matched by any other team, while they will be strong favourites to win their group ahead of Russia, Denmark and Finland.
3. Spain (11.3 per cent)
Now, one thing our model cannot take into consideration is a coronavirus outbreak. La Roja had to field their Under-21s for the senior side's final pre-Euros warm-up game against Lithuania – while it means nothing for their chances at the tournament, they did ease to a 4-0 win.
It remains to be seen if there are any further consequences of Sergio Busquets and Diego Llorente testing positive for COVID-19, but if we assume Luis Enrique is able to rely on a squad that's more or less the selection he initially picked, they will at least be strong options to reach the latter stages.
Although perhaps not blessed with the kind of 'superstar' talent they've had at other tournaments over the past 15 years or so, they do have a highly regarded coach and beat Germany 6-0 as recently as November. Nevertheless, their disrupted build-up to the tournament could be telling when their campaign starts.
4. Germany (9.8 per cent)
Joachim Low's going to have to upset the odds if he is to enjoy one last hurrah with Die Mannschaft. The World Cup-winner coach is stepping down a year early after the Euros, with Hansi Flick set to take over.
Having the likes of Thomas Muller back in the squad after a stunning couple of seasons with Bayern Munich will surely improve their chances – though our model doesn't take player data into account.
The predictor will see that Germany have failed to beat Denmark and North Macedonia in two of their three most recent games, while they also have a particularly hard group.
5. Portugal (9.6 per cent)
The other major footballing power from the 'Group of Death' – our predictor suggests Portugal are the least likely of themselves, France and Germany to win Euro 2020.
Nevertheless, La Selecao will surely feel good about themselves heading into the competition. Their squad is arguably significantly better than the one that won Euro 2016, while coach Fernando Santos is a shrewd operator.
They also have this chap up front called Cristiano Ronaldo, who is one away from setting a new record for the most goals (10) in European Championship history.
THE REST OF THE FIELD
According to our predictor, a resurgent Italy and Netherlands are the next most likely to win the tournament, which would represent a rather good turnaround from missing out on the 2018 World Cup – in fact, the Oranje weren't at Euro 2016 either.
At this point there are probably many of you pondering – assuming you've not just scrolled straight down to the list – about England's chances.
Well, the Three Lions' ranking here is a prime example of how a good draw can really pay. While they should – in theory, at least – have more than enough firepower to get out of a group that also contains Croatia, neighbours Scotland and Czech Republic, their route to the final would almost certainly see them come up against one – or more – of Germany, France, Portugal, Spain, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands. They're also probably not helped by the fact they've played more Euros games (31) without reaching the final than any other team.
England's 5.2 per cent chance of success sees them behind Denmark (5.4 per cent), whose path to the final would likely be a little kinder, though the caveat is that the Three Lions could potentially play the vast majority of their matches on home soil at Wembley.
Tournament debutants North Macedonia are, perhaps unsurprisingly, the least likely to win Euro 2020, with their chances rated at 0.02 per cent.
6. Italy (7.6 per cent)
7. Netherlands (5.9 per cent)
8. Denmark (5.4 per cent)
9. England (5.2 per cent)
10. Switzerland (2.3 per cent)
11. Sweden (1.5 per cent)
12. Croatia (1.0 per cent)
13. Russia (1.0 per cent)
14. Poland (0.8 per cent)
15. Ukraine (0.8 per cent)
16. Wales (0.6 per cent)
17. Turkey (0.4 per cent)
18. Czech Republic (0.2 per cent)
19. Austria (0.2 per cent)
20. Finland (0.1 per cent)
21. Hungary (0.1 per cent)
22. Scotland (0.1 per cent)
23. Slovakia (0.04 per cent)
24. North Macedonia (0.02 per cent)
Wolves v Arsenal: ‘What we still have to play for is beautiful’ – Arteta
Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta set out to remind his team that they still have something “beautiful” to play for despite their Champions League exit.
The Gunners slipped out of UEFA’s flagship club competition in midweek when they went down 1-0 to Bayern Munich, losing 3-2 on aggregate.
That defeat followed on from a 2-0 loss to Aston Villa last Sunday – a reverse that significantly dented Arsenal’s title hopes, with the Gunners now two points behind Manchester City who, after this weekend, will have a game in hand.
Arsenal face Wolves on Saturday and, with City in FA Cup action, a win would see them move back to the top of the table, at least temporarily, so Arteta offered a reminder that all is not lost.
“I can guarantee you we are fully focused on Wolves and everybody's lifted,” he said following the loss in Munich.
“What we still have to play is beautiful and I said before, it's time to be next to our players and in this moment, not when you win 10 in a row and a draw, that's easy to prize our players and to be behind them and to say really nice things. The moment is now to be next to them.”
On Friday, in his pre-match press conference, Arteta added: “As an experience, [the Champions League was] the best one.
“I am now fully focused on the times ahead of us. We are now behind Manchester City and will give it a good go. The context is clear. If we win we are top of the league.”
Wolves sit 11th, though they could do with snapping a four-game winless streak in order to get their European hopes back on track.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Wolves – Matheus Cunha
Cunha has been involved in nine goals in his last nine Premier League games, scoring six and assisting three. His 11 goals overall this season is the fourth most by a Wolves player in a single Premier League campaign after Raul Jimenez (17 in 2019-20, 13 in 2018-19) and Steven Fletcher (12 in 2011-12).
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has been involved in eight goals in his last seven Premier League away games, scoring seven and assisting one. His 13 away goal involvements overall this term (eight goals, five assists) is the most by an Arsenal player in a single Premier League campaign since Alexis Sanchez’s 20 in 2016-17.
MATCH PREDICTION: ARSENAL WIN
Arsenal lost a Premier League game for the first time in 2024 against Villa last time out. Since the start of last season, only twice have the Gunners suffered consecutive league defeats, doing so in May 2023 (v Brighton and Nottingham Forest) and December this season (v West Ham and Fulham).
Wolves are winless in their last four Premier League games (D2 L2), though they have won their last two at Molineux against sides starting the day in the top two of the table, beating Man City 2-1 in September and Spurs by the same score in November.
Arsenal have scored in their last 32 meetings with Wolves in all competitions.
Wolves have now lost each of their last five against the Gunners, failing to score in both home defeats in that run.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
Wolves – 21.5%
Arsenal – 51.2%
Draw – 27.3%
Jurgen Klopp: Liverpool can secure Premier League crown with perfect finish
Liverpool manager Jurgen Klopp remains positive about their place in the title race and still believes if they win all remaining six matches they will be Premier League champions again.
A difficult run of results – starting with a draw at Manchester United and followed by home defeats to Atalanta and Crystal Palace – ended with a 1-0 Europa League victory in Bergamo but that could not prevent their exit from the Europa League 3-1 on aggregate at the quarter-final stage.
A first clean sheet in 10 matches was a boost to confidence, especially as they continue to struggle to find their best form at the other end of the pitch, and Klopp thinks the two-point gap to leaders Manchester City can be overhauled with a perfect run in.
“It’s not obviously in our hands, it is not about that,” said Klopp.
“I think if we would win all our games there is a good chance we will be champion. If not there is a good chance someone else will be champion.
“Maybe we only have to win five, but nobody knows. Who would have thought that Arsenal lose against Aston Villa?
“We all sit here and think ‘OK, yeah. City will win all their games’ and that’s happened quite frequently, but they have a lot of games to play and difficult opponents as well.
“We don’t think about that. We don’t think about them. It is just how can we make sure we start wining games again.”
Over the course of their recent rivalry, Liverpool have had a couple of seasons where the race to the line with City has seen them miss out by just a point despite matching each other win-for-win for the majority of the run in.
But Klopp said that experience was not necessarily as positive as onlookers may believe.
“When we were in the position we didn’t win the league in the end. We lost by a point and stuff like that. What kind of experience is that?” he added.
“We know how to get there – and then don’t (win). It’s not about that.
“It’s good to know that you are good and you can cause other teams problems.
“But the thing is clear: if you want to be champion in the Premier League you have to be close to perfect and if you are not perfect you have to deal with the setbacks in the best possible way or in a perfect way.
“That is what we are now doing. We had a setback week with three games we didn’t like too much, the results especially, and now we have to start turning it around.”
Key to turning things around will be a change in fortunes in front of goal.
Three goals in their last four matches has stalled their progress with the forwards failing to take numerous opportunities they have created.
Mohamed Salah, whom Klopp defended after he missed a key chance to make it 2-0 against Atalanta, has scored six – two of which were penalties – in 11 matches since returning from two months out with a hamstring injury.
Luis Diaz has two in eight games, Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo have just one in their last seven, while Diogo Jota has yet to find the net in three appearances since returning injury.
“We had good moments and had an awful lot of chances, and didn’t use one of them more of less,” said Klopp.
“That’s not great but the worst thing in football is not to have chances. It is better you deal with chances you miss than you have no chances.
“That’s why I’m absolutely positive and after processing things properly, yeah, I’m more than happy with the situation.”
Coventry boss Mark Robins: Manchester United are the ‘biggest club in the world’
Coventry boss Mark Robins has scoffed at the “derisory” criticism of Manchester United, insisting his side’s FA Cup semi-final opponents remain the biggest football club on the planet.
Robins began his career at Old Trafford and his history with the club is firmly intertwined with the cup, with his third round winner against Nottingham Forest in 1990 often cited as the goal that saved Sir Alex Ferguson from the sack.
Ferguson’s latest successor in the hot seat, Erik ten Hag, could do with firming up his own position and could find himself on extremely rocky ground if the Red Devils were denied a shot at silverware by Championship opposition.
They are winless in four games since reaching the last four with a penalty shootout victory over Liverpool and sit seventh in the Premier League table, but Robins believes their problems have been overstated.
“People, pundits, are talking in a derisory way about Manchester United and what they’re doing, how they’re performing,” he said.
“For people who are talking about Manchester United are this or that, or they concede lots of shots: you’re talking about a team that is full of talented players, top international players. We know they are clearly favourites to win this game, by a million miles, simple as that.
“They can hurt anybody on their day. The game against Liverpool their goals were outstanding. So you’ve got a lot of things to consider, especially as a Championship club going up against the biggest club in the world.
“For Manchester United, this is a normal occasion. They play at Wembley a lot of times, there’s some England internationals there and other internationals who’ve played at Wembley on numerous occasions. It’s an expectation for them and their supporters; for us it’s slightly different.”
The Sky Blues booked their place in the last four with a dramatic 3-2 win over Wolves, with stoppage-time strikes from Ellis Simms and Haji Wright completing a remarkable upset.
The euphoria of that result has not carried in to their league form though, with three losses in their last four games leaving their play-off hopes – and regular games against the likes of United – all but over.
With that in mind, Robins has urged everyone connected to the club to make the most of the experience in front of them.
“We’ve already given the fans a special occasion getting there. Being in the national stadium with Manchester United, it doesn’t get much bigger than that,” he said.
“It’s a brilliant opportunity for everyone and there’s a lot of excitement around the city. There is a global reach there for Coventry City, the world will be tuning in and it’s a great occasion for all of our players.”
One player who will not be part of City’s big day is Kasey Palmer, suspended after picking up a booking for encroaching on the pitch to celebrate the late triumph over Wolves.
“In the moment it’s the reaction we all made, you don’t necessarily think too much about it,” Said Robins.
“It was really poor but the rules are the rules and you’ve got to abide by them. Unfortunately for him and for us, we can’t use him.”
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