The Ligue 1 title tussle between Paris Saint-Germain and Lille is going to the wire, and it is Les Dogues who hold a slender advantage heading into the final day.
Lille could have won the title – their first since 2010-11 – last week had they beaten Saint-Etienne and PSG dropped points against Reims.
Neither of those outcomes came to fruition, however, and Lille are just one point ahead with one game left to play. It is the smallest gap between a leader and the second-placed team at this stage in a Ligue 1 campaign since 2001-02.
Christophe Galtier's team need only to beat Angers to guarantee their triumph, but the mid-table team are one of the only three sides Lille have lost to this season in Ligue 1, while PSG face Brest.
Just below the title battle, Monaco – who have a slim chance of taking top billing – and Lyon are vying for the final Champions League spot.
Monaco could yet end up at the summit, but Niko Kovac's team would finish fourth if they fail to beat Lens and Lyon defeat Nice.
At the other end of the table, there is potential for drama, with six teams between 18th-placed Nantes and 13th-placed Reims involved in a relegation scrap.
It has been a tightly fought contest throughout the season at the top of the table, but all will be decided on Sunday.
How does the predictor work?
First of all, here's how we got the data...
The data model estimates the probability of each match outcome – either a win, draw or loss – based on each team's attacking and defensive quality. Those ratings are allocated based on four years' worth of comprehensive historic data points and results, with more weighting given to recent matches to account for improvements or declines in form and performance trends.
The AI simulation takes into account the quality of the opposition that a team scores or concedes goals against and rewards them accordingly. All that data is used to simulate upcoming matches using goal predictions from the Poisson distribution – a detailed mathematical model – with the two teams' attacking and defending ratings used as inputs.
The outcome of the season is then simulated on 10,000 different occasions in order to generate the most accurate possible percentage chance of each team finishing in their ultimate league position. The points total is based on an average of the predicted points from the simulations of the league outcome.
Let's see how the model now predicts the final league table will look...
Lille likely to pip PSG to the post
Our model suggests that it will be Lille who hold firm to triumph this season, and claim their fourth Ligue 1 crown in the process, giving Les Dogues a 57.9 per cent chance of finishing top.
Lille did lose to Angers earlier this season, but they had won the previous three matches against them.
Angers, though, have only failed to score in two of their 18 Ligue 1 home games against Lille, doing so in their first such meeting in September 1957 (0-0) and in their most recent in February 2020 (0-2).
However, Lille's away form is superb – they have won 11 of their last 12 Ligue 1 games on the road.
Opta's AI predicts a 34 per cent chance of Lille finishing second, and an 8.9 per cent of them finishing third. The latter outcome would require Lille to lose, PSG to avoid defeat, Monaco to win, and there to be at least a six-goal swing in goal difference in the principality club's favour.
For PSG, the model offers them a 45.7 per chance of finishing second. If they drop points at all, then Lille will only need to draw to win the title, while a defeat – combined with a Monaco victory – would see Mauricio Pochettino's team finish third. Opta predict there is a 10.9 per cent chance of this happening.
There is very slim potential (3.1 per cent) for PSG to finish outside of the Champions League places and in fourth, but the goal difference swing required (17) would be bordering on the realms of impossibility.
PSG have a 40.3 per cent chance of finishing top, with Monaco not technically out of the running – they have a 2.6 per cent chance.
Monaco would need both Lille and PSG to slip up for that to occur. However, their main focus is to secure Champions League football.
Opta suggests this may be tough, with Lyon – led by the in-form Memphis Depay – given a 43.2 per cent chance of snatching third place, with Monaco destined for fourth. This is due in part to their poor record away at Lens in Ligue 1, where they have won just one of their last 14 top-flight games.
Bad luck for Brest
In the relegation scrap, Opta predict that Nantes, who currently occupy 18th place or Brest are the most likely teams to have to play-off against Toulouse or Grenoble Foot for a place in next season's Ligue 1.
Brest of course face PSG, and they have lost their last three Ligue 1 home games against the capital club, giving them a 50 per cent chance of finishing 18th.
Nantes are in action against Montpellier, and the model suggests their most likely finishing position is also in the bottom three (35.8 per cent), though only one unwanted place is up for grabs.
Reims, who sit in 13th, are not mathematically safe, with only two points between them and Nantes, but they are predicted to secure their top-flight status for next season.
Lorient, Bordeaux and Strasbourg could also be dragged into the relegation/promotion play-off place.
Coventry City 2-3 Hull City: Tigers win five-goal thriller to keep play-off hopes alive
Hull City kept their hopes of gatecrashing the Championship play-offs alive with a thrilling 3-2 win over beaten FA Cup semi-finalists Coventry City on Wednesday.
Noah Ohio scored the winner with his first touch after coming on as a second-half substitute as Hull moved within three points of sixth-placed Norwich City with two games to play.
Coventry, meanwhile, saw their own hopes of returning to Wembley Stadium for a second successive play-off final all but ended, as they sit six points further back with three matches remaining.
Three days on from their remarkable comeback against Manchester United, the Sky Blues twice fought back to level things at Coventry Building Society Arena. Jaden Philogene's shot squirmed under goalkeeper Bradley Collins to put Hull ahead 31 minutes in, but Kasey Palmer levelled within five minutes with a stunning free-kick.
Hull went back ahead in controversial circumstances on the stroke of half-time, Liverpool loanee Fabio Carvalho converting from the penalty spot despite replays showing Joel Latibeaudiere's foul on Liam Delap took place outside the area.
Mark Robins' men again dragged themselves back into the game as Bobby Thomas headed Jay Dasilva's cross in just before the hour mark, but it was Liam Rosenior's visitors who found a winner.
Thomas went from hero to villain as his poor back pass sold Collins short, and Ohio got a toe to the ball to score the winner, keeping Hull's hopes of Premier League football intact.
Van Dijk: Liverpool have 'no chance' in title race after derby defeat
Virgil van Dijk conceded Liverpool might be out of the Premier League title race after they suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat to Everton in Wednesday's Merseyside derby.
Jarrad Branthwaite and Dominic Calvert-Lewin scored in either half to give the Toffees their first win over Liverpool at Goodison Park since 2010.
Liverpool struggled to find a way through the Toffees' defence despite dominating for long periods, and the Reds' captain says they will not outlast Arsenal and Manchester City without major improvements.
Speaking to Sky Sports, Van Dijk said: "If we play like today, then we have no chance to consider ourselves in the title race.
"We have to just focus on the next game and that will be a tough one anyway, so we will see.
"We're very disappointed, in so many ways. I think everyone has to look at their own performances. Did they really give everything, and do they really want to win the league?
"We're still fighting and there are still games after tonight, but if we play like we did overall in the game today – not winning challenges and giving the referee a chance to give free-kicks like he did many times, then you have no chance to win the title."
Howe: Newcastle performance in Palace defeat 'way off' Spurs win
Eddie Howe admitted Newcastle United's performance in the 2-0 loss at Crystal Palace on Wednesday was "way off" the one that saw them thump Tottenham in their previous game.
Howe's men hammered Spurs 4-0 in their last match, but they never got close to matching the attacking verve from that outing and a Jean-Philippe Mateta double condemned the Magpies to defeat at Selhurst Park.
Newcastle didn't even manage a shot on target until the 87th minute, accumulating just 0.42 xG (expected goals) as the likes of Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon struggled to make an impact.
Only against Manchester City in August (one) have Newcastle recorded fewer shots on target in a Premier League game this season than their two against Palace, and Howe was critical of his team's display in the loss, one that all but ends their hopes of finishing in the top four.
"[It is a] bad day for us," Howe told Newcastle's club media.
"I thought we were disappointing today, especially in the first 60 minutes. We were way off our levels against Tottenham and our best levels.
"I thought technically we didn't deliver a good performance, and out of possession I don't think it was a particularly good performance either."
Newcastle were unlocked twice for Mateta to score by a Palace side who themselves only generated 0.88 xG.
Howe was left frustrated by the manner in which his side conceded, adding: "I think we'll be disappointed with our performance technically today, and that's probably epitomised by the two goals where we're disappointed with how we've given them the ball in those situations and then how we defended.
"I think the goals sum up aspects of our performance where there was some good, lots of moments that could have led to opportunities, but we were slow to shoot around the box," he said.
The defeat, combined with Manchester United's 4-2 win over Sheffield United, means Newcastle drop to seventh, while eighth-placed West Ham are two points behind with a game in hand.
Newcastle have now lost eight of their last 11 Premier League away games, while they have lost on four occasions in London in the league this term, only doing so more times in a Premier League season in 2000-01 and 2005-06 (both five).
It's been a disappointing season for Howe and his side, especially compared to the heroics of last term when Newcastle finished in the top four, and the Magpies boss knows there's work to be done to get back to those levels.
"It's a day that we have to take our punishment, deal with it, and then try and improve," Howe continued. "It's frustrating because we know we're capable of much better."
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
