Ten matches into the Premier League season, Arsenal's hopes of ending their long wait for a league title are already in danger.
Last week's 1-0 defeat to Newcastle United made it just seven points from five games, and they now trail leaders Liverpool by seven points.
Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll on Arteta's men, and things do not get much easier for them on Sunday, against a Chelsea team currently above them on goal difference.
Enzo Maresca's Blues fought back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United last time out, and only Manchester City and Liverpool have beaten them since the Italian took over.
We delve into the Opta data to preview Sunday's headline fixture at Stamford Bridge.
What's expected?
Given the two sides are only separated on goal difference ahead of Sunday's match, the Opta supercomputer finds it difficult to split.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations conducted by the supercomputer, Arsenal were victorious in 41.2%, giving them a slight edge over their hosts, who are a 33.2% shot.
The likelihood of a draw is rated at 25.6%, but you sense Arsenal need to take all three points after seeing their hopes of winning the title drop to 4.4% in Opta's season predictions. Chelsea's own hopes are rated at 0.3%, with City (61.9%) still clear favourites ahead of Liverpool (33.4%).
Chelsea have won just one of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (two draws, six defeats), a 2-0 away win in August 2021. The Gunners have managed three victories in their last four league trips to Stamford Bridge (one draw) – as many victories as they recorded in their previous 20 visits (seven draws, 10 defeats).
Arsenal have also won their last six Premier League London derby matches by an aggregate score of 22-3, winning six of those matches by five or more goals.
One such occasion was a 5-0 rout of Chelsea at the Emirates Stadium last April, their biggest-ever margin of victory against the Blues in all competitions.
Blues eye statement victory
When the Premier League fixture list was drawn up, even the most optimistic Chelsea fan may have struggled to visualise the Blues sitting ahead of Arsenal in the table after 10 games.
But Maresca's side have shown promising signs in the early stages of his tenure. Chelsea's last two Premier League defeats this season have come against last season's top three teams – 0-5 versus Arsenal in April, 0-2 versus City in August and 1-2 against Liverpool in October.
They are unbeaten in their last 21 matches against all other teams, winning 14 and drawing seven while scoring 57 goals in total across those games.
The future looks bright for Chelsea, who fielded a starting lineup with an average age of 23 years and 96 days at Old Trafford last week – their youngest-ever XI for a Premier League match against Manchester United.
However, they are still waiting on a first statement win under Maresca, and getting one over on the Gunners would earn him plenty of goodwill among the fans.
Their chances could be decided by the fitness of Cole Palmer, who is an injury doubt after suffering a knock against United.
He opened the scoring when the Blues last welcomed Arsenal to west London for a 2-2 draw last October, scoring his first Premier League goal at Stamford Bridge.
Since then, he has more home goals in the competition than any other player (21), also leading the way for goal involvements (12 – seven goals, five assists, alongside Mohamed Salah) and open-play chances created in 2024-25.
Can fit-again Odegaard get Gunners firing?
Last season, Arsenal won 42 of their 89 Premier League points on their travels, taking nine points from five matches at the homes of their Big Six rivals.
This campaign, however, their failure to hit top form on the road has threatened to end their latest title tilt before it truly got going.
Arsenal have collected seven points from five away matches this term, the same amount as Brighton and fewer than Liverpool (13), Nottingham Forest (11), Chelsea, City and Aston Villa (all 10).
While Arteta has long preached the importance of control, Arsenal have simply not been good enough going forward in those matches. They have attempted just 37 shots on the road in the Premier League this season (7.4 per game), with only Brentford (seven) averaging fewer per away match across the entire division.
The fact Arsenal played significant amounts of time at Manchester City and Bournemouth with a numerical disadvantage likely plays a part, but the fact five teams have attempted at least twice as many shots on the road does not make for good reading (Manchester City 90, Tottenham 83, Crystal Palace 79, Bournemouth 78 and Manchester United 74).
Martin Odegaard's return to training after two months out with an ankle injury is a major boost, with the Norwegian having led all players in the Premier League for expected assists (11.17 xA) and chances created from open play (88) last season.
Arsenal have actually outperformed their underlying attacking metrics this campaign, netting 17 league goals from 15.75 expected goals (xG), so their finishing does not appear to be an issue. The fact they rank eighth in the league for xG does, however, suggest chance creation is a problem.
Arteta will hope Odegaard's return can make the difference, or a title challenge may prove a bridge too far. The last time they lost three successive away Premier League games was in December 2021, and they went on to miss out on a top-four finish that season.
The Norwegian was a late substitute as they were beaten 1-0 by Inter in the Champions League on Wednesday. They have now lost three of their last six games in all competitions, as many as their previous 32 beforehand.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Chelsea – Nicolas Jackson
Since the start of last season, Chelsea striker Jackson has been involved in more London derby goals than any other player in the Premier League (10 goals, two assists).
All of his 12 involvements have come in his last nine such appearances, and he already has six Premier League goals this term.
Arsenal – Bukayo Saka
Saka has provided more assists than any other player in the Premier League this season (seven).
He has also either scored (once) or assisted (twice) a goal in each of his last three away games against Chelsea in the Premier League, with Sergio Aguero (2013 to 2017) and Javier Hernandez (2012 to 2018) the only visiting players to do so in four consecutive appearances.
Garvey Maceo rise from cusp of defeat to stun McGrath High and clinch third daCosta Cup crown
It is often said that it’s never over until it’s over, and Garvey Maceo High epitomized that saying when they snatched victory from the jaws of defeat with a 5-3 win on penalties against first-time finalist McGrath High in a pulsating ISSA/Wata daCosta Cup final at the National Stadium on Saturday.
The Linstead-based McGrath High seemed destined for glory after Devone Davis struck in the 15th minute, but Omarion O’Brian shattered their dreams with a last-gasp equalizer in the 90+7 minute to send the game into the dreaded penalty shootout.
Much like they did in the semi-final against Glenmuir High, the Clarendon-based Garvey Maceo held their nerves best from the 12-yard spot to secure their third title, adding to their triumphs in 2007 and 2021.
Acting Head coach Lester Hibbert was overwhelmed with pride, having stepped in seamlessly for Merron Gordon, who took a sabbatical this season.
“We just had to believe. We never gave up, even when the odds were stacked against us, because a true believer is a real believer. We did it. Being past students of the institution is what drove us and gave us the passion to keep going. Even when it seemed as if the time was going to run out on us, we fought, and this one is for those who never stopped believing in us,” a beaming Hibbert said in a post-game interview.
Both teams began the contest with attacking intent, and McGrath drew first blood when Davis dispossessed defender Malik Robinson and unleashed a fierce left-footer that whistled past Garvey Maceo’s goalkeeper Garfield Tomlinson for his 12th goal of the season.
Garvey Maceo pressed for an equalizer and created half-chances but failed to capitalize.
McGrath, eager to extend their lead, also missed crucial opportunities, as they remained 1-0 up at the break.
The second half offered little in terms of clear chances. However, McGrath’s Dontae Anderson nearly doubled their lead in the 53rd minute, but Devany McIntosh cleared his header off the line after Tomlinson spilled a corner from Shane Pusey.
Minutes later, Jim Mitchell had an opportunity to seal the game for McGrath but fired into the side netting in the 77th minute.
With time ticking away, Garvey Maceo launched a desperate push, and it paid off in the dying moments of added time when O’Brian twisted and turned before finding space for a low right-footed shot from outside the 18-yard box that sailed past Orlando Griffiths, sparking wild celebrations.
In the shootout, Garvey Maceo again showed nerves of steel, converting all five of their attempts through Devany McIntosh, Tyreek McKenley, Delano Thompson, Malik Robinson, and Rajay McLaughlin.
Meanwhile, Jim Mitchell, David Hutchinson, and Marcelo Gordon found the net for McGrath, but Isaac Mason’s effort was denied by Tomlinson.
McGrath’s Head coach, Jermaine Thomas, who guided the school to its historic Ben Francis Cup win last year, must wait a little longer for a first daCosta Cup crown but was still gracious in defeat.
“Once Devone was out, it was always going to be difficult for us, but nevertheless, they fought and fought gallantly. We turned up and we showed Jamaica that this is the school from Linstead and we can compete, but a lapse in concentration at the back cost us in added time, but still they played their hearts out, and I am extremely proud of them,” Thomas noted.
LA Galaxy 2-1 New York Red Bulls: Paintsil and Joveljic goals secure MLS Cup
The LA Galaxy claimed a record-extending sixth MLS Cup by beating the New York Red Bulls 2-1, with early goals from Joseph Paintsil and Dejan Joveljic securing the trophy.
The Galaxy raced into a two-goal lead within 13 minutes as they made a blistering start on home soil at Dignity Health Sports Park, and they held firm after the Red Bulls halved the arrears midway through the first half.
Gaston Brugman threaded a lovely throughball into the path of Paintsil, who slotted his finish under Carlos Coronel for a ninth-minute opener.
Four minutes later, Greg Vanney's men had breathing space as Joveljic escaped the Red Bulls backline to prod home with the outside of his boot.
Daniel Edelman narrowly avoided putting through his own net soon afterwards, then New York clawed one back through captain Sean Nealis, who volleyed home following an inswinging corner Emil Forsberg.
Noah Eile missed one glorious chance before teeing up another for Dante Vanzeir, but the Galaxy held firm, almost adding a third goal when Miki Yamane cannoned a shot against the post shortly after the hour-mark.
Data Debrief: Galaxy out on their own
The LA Galaxy already held the record for most MLS Cup triumphs ahead of Saturday's showpiece game, with their sixth success now taking them two clear of D.C. United.
The win ended their 10-year wait for a title, last claiming the crown when a team containing Landon Donovan and Robbie Keane beat the New England Revolution in 2014.
Girona 0-3 Real Madrid: Bellingham and Mbappe score as Blancos close on Barcelona
Real Madrid closed the gap on LaLiga leaders Barcelona to two points with a commanding 3-0 win at Girona, with goals from Jude Bellingham, Arda Guler and Kylian Mbappe.
Second-placed Madrid have 36 points with a game in hand on Barca, who drew 2-2 at Real Betis earlier on Saturday, after inflicting Girona's sixth loss of the campaign.
Bellingham opened the scoring in the 36th minute by capitalising on a loose ball and firing home from the centre of the box, with the England international then turning provider for Madrid's second goal.
Ten minutes into the second half, his defence-splitting throughball teed up Guler to double Madrid's lead, though Bellingham was withdrawn with an injury soon afterwards.
Mbappe then added further gloss shortly after the hour mark, firing home from a tight angle for his ninth league goal of the season.
Data debrief: Mbappe brings up double century
Mbappe's ninth league goal for Madrid was also his 200th in his career across Europe's top five leagues, on his 261st such appearance.
He netted 16 times for Monaco and 175 times with Paris Saint-Germain.
He was not the only Blancos star with something to celebrate, as Bellingham made it five straight games with a goal for the very first time in Europe's top leagues, though his second-half exit will concern Carlo Ancelotti.
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