EPL

Premier League MD10: Lucky winners and unlucky losers

By Sports Desk November 04, 2024

We are now 10 games into the Premier League season and the table is beginning to take shape, but that does not mean there is no room for an upset or two.

On Saturday, both Manchester City and Arsenal fell to surprise defeats at Bournemouth and Newcastle United respectively. 

It was only the third time since the start of 2017-18 that both of the previous season's top two teams had lost on the same day in the Premier League, after March 7, 2021 and January 14, 2023.

Pep Guardiola's champions could have few complaints about the result at the Vitality Stadium, where Andoni Iraola's Cherries won the expected goals (xG) battle by 2.04 to 1.56.

But which other games featured a lucky winner or an unlucky loser? We delve into the Opta data to find out.

Unlucky losers: Arsenal

The weekend's action began with Arsenal travelling to St James' Park to face Newcastle, with Mikel Arteta's side chasing a victory to move within a point of leaders Liverpool.

However, they succumbed to a 1-0 defeat as Alexander Isak's early goal proved enough for Newcastle to make it three wins in their last four home league games against Arsenal (one loss).

The Gunners could count themselves unlucky to come away from Tyneside with nothing, however, after limiting Newcastle to a measly 0.53 xG – 0.25 of which came from the chance for Isak's goal.

Only West Ham, who played half of their defeat to Nottingham Forest with 10 men, created a lower figure across the nine games to take place this weekend, with 0.13 xG.

Arsenal were far from their free-flowing best, though, only recording 10 attempts worth 1.05 xG themselves. They have averaged just 7.4 shots per game in their away Premier League matches this season, with only Brentford (7.5) taking fewer.

 

Lucky winners: Southampton 

Just two teams – Wolves and Ipswich Town – remain without a victory in the Premier League after Southampton finally got off the mark by beating Everton 1-0 at St Mary's.

Russell Martin's team accumulated just 0.74 xG to Everton's 1.56, but Adam Armstrong's strike five minutes from time handed them a huge three points in their fight for safety.

While Beto, who headed against the crossbar just 25 seconds before Armstrong's winner, and Jack Harrison spurned great chances for the Toffees, Southampton were also grateful for a late VAR intervention, as the former saw a potential leveller chalked off for a marginal offside call.

It was the first time Everton had failed to score against Southampton in the Premier League since February 2022, bringing their five-match unbeaten run in the competition to a halt.

 

Unlucky losers: Crystal Palace

Southampton ended the weekend in 19th, above winless Wolves after they were pegged back in a 2-2 draw with Crystal Palace at Molineux.

Marc Guehi salvaged a draw for the Eagles, who were without star men Adam Wharton and Eberechi Eze yet arguably still did enough to leave the West Midlands with all three points.

They racked up 19 shots totalling 2.51 xG to their hosts' 11, which had a total value of 1.51 xG. Palace's xG figure was the highest in the Premier League this weekend, but they were missing their shooting boots as Ismaila Sarr squandered two glorious chances when they were a goal to the good in the second half. 

With both defences struggling, this was only the second Premier League game of the season to be goalless at half-time but see both sides score at least twice in the second half, after Everton 2-3 Bournemouth in August.

There could have been a fifth goal in stoppage time, too, as Jean-Phillipe Mateta saw a potential winner disallowed for a foul on Jose Sa in the build-up. Wolves – and their under-fire head coach Gary O'Neil – arguably got away with one.

 

Lucky winners: Chelsea 

Sunday's late game saw Chelsea fight back to draw 1-1 with Manchester United at Old Trafford, denying Ruud van Nistelrooy a first Premier League win as the Red Devils' interim head coach.

Moises Caicedo's well-taken volley cancelled out Bruno Fernandes' penalty and Chelsea arguably looked the more likely victors in the second half, but they only generated 1.1 xG from their 12 attempts – and just 0.29 from six after the interval.

United, meanwhile, had chances worth 1.98 xG, though Fernandes' spot-kick – with an xG value of 0.79 – was a major contributing factor.

Marcus Rashford and Alejandro Garnacho squandered decent opportunities for United, though, and incoming boss Ruben Amorim has plenty of work to do with their attackers.

United have scored just nine goals in 10 Premier League games this season – their worst record through 10 matches of any league campaign since 1973-74 (also nine).

Fans of a certain vintage will need no reminder of what happened at the end of that season – United were relegated from the First Division, their fate sealed by club legend Denis Law scoring against them with a nonchalant backheel, while representing rivals Man City.

 

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    “Michail is conscious and communicating and is currently under close supervision at a central London Hospital,” the Premier League club communicated on X.

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  • Bruno Guimaraes wants Newcastle to put defence first after Brentford loss Bruno Guimaraes wants Newcastle to put defence first after Brentford loss

    Newcastle's winless run stretched to four Premier League games as Eddie Howe's side lost 4-2 away at Brentford on Saturday.

    As the hosts maintained their unbeaten home record in league action this season, the full-time whistle drew frustration and more questions for the Magpies, who failed to break the Bees down in the closing stages.

    A chaotic first half saw four goals fly in at a windy Gtech Community Stadium, as Newcastle twice came from behind, via Alexander Isak and Harvey Barnes before the break.

    Their defensive fragility, however, was punished after the restart, as Nathan Collins prodded home, as the visitors defence failed to deal with a punted free kick into their penalty area from Mark Flekken.

    As Howe's charges pushed for a third equaliser late on, their ragged back line was exposed again, as Kevin Schade raced through to slot home a clinching goal.

    Captain Bruno Guimaraes offered no excuses at full time as the Brazil international struggled to explain why his team are struggling against direct attacks this season.

    "It's very disappointing. In the first half we had some good moments, but after the third goal we lost our way, we lost control," he told PLP, via BBC Sport.

    "We have always been reactive, we need to concede a goal to score one ourselves. We never score first, we concede a lot of goals, this cannot happen. We have to find a way to be consistent.

    "After we conceded the third goal, we became a mess, gave the ball away a lot, and we were punished. We have to turn things around. Last season we had one of the best defences in the league, now we concede a lot. It's about the whole team, we have to find a way not to concede."

    Guimaraes' frustration is backed up by some concerning recent defensive numbers for Newcastle, with no clean sheet in their last five league games, and 11 goals conceded.

    However, the doom and gloom for Newcastle was in sharp contrast to a buoyant Thomas Frank, who saw his side record a fifth successive home Premier League win.

    The Danish boss hailed the resilience of his players, and singled out goalscorers Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa for praise, as the duo moved onto nine Premier League goals each in 2024/25.

    "I'm very happy, it was a great performance in many ways. The way we performed today physically, and with quality against a very good Newcastle side, I'm very proud of my players.

    "Wissa, the way he links up and goes forward, and gets behind the back line for tap ins. Bryan Mbeumo today was unplayable. The way he holds the ball up and links play, as he did to Kevin Schade [for the fourth goal] was very impressive."

  • Crystal Palace 2-2 Manchester City: Lewis equaliser rescues a point for Guardiola's side Crystal Palace 2-2 Manchester City: Lewis equaliser rescues a point for Guardiola's side

    Crystal Palace and Manchester City shared the points in an entertaining 2-2 draw at Selhurst Park on Saturday.

    It was a result that extended the reigning champions’ winless away run to four league matches, while they have now won just one of their last nine matches in all competitions.

    Palace caused Pep Guardiola’s side plenty of problems and merited a point that continues their recent upturn in form.

    Daniel Munoz gave the hosts the lead inside four minutes, slotting past City goalkeeper Stefan Ortega from a Will Hughes pass.

    But Erling Haaland ended a three-game Premier League goal drought and equalised for the visitors with a header after 31 minutes. 

    The two sides also shared a goal apiece in the second half, with Maxence Lacroix and Rico Lewis both hitting the target. 

    Lewis, meanwhile, was sent off for a second bookable offence in the 84th minute, just when City had finally wrestled control of the game.

    But neither side were able to find a winner and following the draw, City remain fourth in the Premier League and eight points behind leaders Liverpool. Crystal Palace, meanwhile, climbed a place to 16th and are four points above the bottom three.

    Data Debrief: City's away jitters continue

    City went into the game having lost their last five games on the road in all competitions, and their poor away form did not improve after dropping two more points at Selhurst Park. 

    Guardiola's side have also conceded twice in each of their last four away fixtures.  The visitors generated an xG of 1.41 from 12 attempts, which is only slightly better than the xG of 1.3 that Palace had from the same number of attempts.

    Though Guardiola's side had four shots on target, one more than the hosts, they failed to find a winner and settled for the point. 

    Palace, meanwhile, are undefeated in their last four games in the Premier League. 

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