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• Aldershot move into play-off places with victory at 10-man Gateshead

  Kwame Thomas headed Aldershot into the National League play-off places in a 1-0 win away to a Gateshead side who played almost half the match with a defender deputising in goal.

  Gateshead had goalkeeper Nathan Harness sent off in the 47th minute for bringing down James Daly outside the box and, with no stopper on the bench, Louis Storey went between the posts for the rest of the night.

  Storey made a good save to keep out Cian Harries’ free-kick in the 51st minute, but could do nothing as the visitors took the lead 10 minutes later.

  Thomas got on the end of a looping cross from Josh Barrett to head in, and it proved enough for a win that puts them one point above FC Halifax, who host Oldham on Thursday.

• Premier League relegation battle: Crucial weekend in the scrap for survival

  While the Premier League title race unfolds, there is another tussle playing out at the bottom.

  And this weekend, six of the teams at the wrong end of the table fight it out against each other.

  On Saturday, Luton Town will hope to propel themselves out of the relegation zone by overcoming Brentford at Kenilworth Road, though the 15th-placed Bees will know that another win could all but end their worries of dropping down to the Championship.

  At the same time, the two bottom clubs go head-to-head at Bramall Lane, with Sheffield United hosting Burnley. Both the Blades and the Clarets look likely to go down, though if either are to survive, then taking three points from this one is a must.

  Sunday’s early game is a huge one at Goodison Park, as Everton and Nottingham Forest – both impacted by points deductions for breaches of Profit and Sustainability Rules (PSR) – face off. The Toffees are 16th, a point better off than the Tricky Trees, but Sean Dyche’s team are on a dismal run of just one win in 15 league matches.

  Crystal Palace are perhaps not out of the woods just yet, though after their stunning win at Anfield last time out, the Eagles will hope to carry on the momentum when they face West Ham.

  And using Opta data, we can assess the likelihood of the Premier League relegation scrap, as well as the underlying metrics behind each of these teams.

   

  Let’s work from the top down.

  Palace, after that shock 1-0 win over Liverpool, are now not considered to be relegation candidates by Opta’s predictive model, which gives them a 46.5 per cent chance of staying right where they are in 14th.

  The Eagles are six points clear of Everton in 17th, and while not mathematically safe, Oliver Glasner’s team are certainly within touching distance.

  It is worth noting, though, that according to the Opta power rankings, Palace have the most difficult run-in of all these seven teams, with the average rating of their remaining opponents coming in at 87.9. Like the Toffees and Sheffield United, Palace have six matches left to play, though they do not play any of the teams below them in that run.

  Next come Brentford. The Bees have five games remaining but, with 33 points, are likely just a win away from tying up their safety, and they will be hoping that comes against Luton (as well Everton and Forest fans).

  According to Opta’s model, Brentford have the second-easiest fixture list of any team in the league, with their average opponent rating of 85.1 higher only than Newcastle United’s (84.1).

  The Bees do, though, face a trip to Everton after they head to Luton, so should the worst occur and they lose those matches, then Thomas Frank’s team could find themselves firmly back in danger. As it stands, Brentford’s chances of going down are a meagre 0.3 per cent.

  Brentford are the second-worst expected goals underperformers in the competition this season, having scored six fewer goals than would have been anticipated based on the quality of opportunities they have created, suggesting that with better finishing, and a bit more luck, they would likely be clear of danger already.

  And if that can be said for Brentford, then it can be emphatically repeated for 16th-placed Everton.

   

  Even factoring in the eight points that have been taken off them this term, Everton – who were thrashed 6-0 by Chelsea on Monday – could have been out of danger had they simply come close to matching their xG. They are by far the Premier League’s biggest underperformers when it comes to that metric – Dyche’s side have scored 32 goals (which ranks 19th in the league) from an xG of 48, a whopping underperformance of 16.

  Sunday’s clash with Forest kick-starts a huge week of home games for the Toffees, with a Merseyside derby against Liverpool following on April 24, before Brentford then visit Goodison Park.

  With Forest, Brentford, Luton and Sheffield United among their final four fixtures, Everton should still have some confidence – they have taken seven points off those sides already this term, and a repeat of that could be enough, though a final-day away outing at Arsenal is ominous, given the Toffees have shipped nine goals in their last two visits to Emirates Stadium. Opta predicts they will stay up, but Everton do have an 8.9 per cent chance of slipping out of the top tier for the first time in over 70 years.

  Below them, Forest will no doubt have been buoyed by Everton’s sorry performance at Stamford Bridge. However, Nuno Espirito Santo’s team do have a rather sizeable 29.9 per cent chance of going down, so a victory at Goodison Park could be vital.

  Especially considering Forest’s next fixture comes against Manchester City, albeit it is at home, where they also face Chelsea in between away clashes with Sheffield United and Burnley.

  Perhaps worrying for Forest, however, is that in their three matches against Everton, the Blades and Burnley this term, they have taken only four points. Interestingly, while Forest have shipped 58 goals – a figure which betters only the bottom three, they have been unfortunate to concede so many based on their expected goals against (xGA), which is actually the sixth best in the league at 47.4.

  Then we have Luton. The Hatters have been one of the stories of the season, and despite their small budget have a brilliant chance of survival.

  That being said, Opta’s predictive model does anticipate they will go down, with Rob Edwards’ side having a 54.3 per cent chance of finishing where they are in 18th, with their chances of finishing in 17th being 29.6 per cent.

  Victory over Brentford, who beat them 3-1 earlier in the campaign, would see Luton move out of the bottom three, though, and with five games left, they do have what is considered a relatively easy run-in when it comes to the average rating of those teams they are going up against, at 85.4.

  That being said, Luton’s defensive record this season is awful. The Hatters have shipped 70 goals from an xGA of 69.7. They will need to tighten up if they are to complete the great escape.

   

  What about the bottom two?

  Well, they are perhaps down and out. After visiting South Yorkshire on Saturday, Vincent Kompany’s Burnley team have to go to Old Trafford and the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium either side of hosting Newcastle, and Opta’s predictive model suggests they will go down – they have just a 1.6 per cent chance of survival.

  There is an even smaller chance of the Blades, who are 20th, staying up, at just 0.2 per cent.

  Chris Wilder’s team are the team with the fewest goals scored in the top flight, at 30, while they have conceded 84 – the worst in the division, and while victory over the Clarets would provide a morale-boost, the Blades seemed destined for the Championship.

• Xabi Alonso: Bundesliga celebrations will not affect Leverkusen against West Ham

  Bayer Leverkusen boss Xabi Alonso had bad news for David Moyes after insisting there are no lingering hangovers from their historic Bundesliga title celebrations.

  Leverkusen clinched the first title in the club’s history when they beat Werder Bremen 5-0 on Sunday.

  But their attention is now focused on defending a 2-0 lead in the second leg of their Europa League quarter-final at West Ham.

  Hammers boss Moyes admitted he hoped the Leverkusen players might have indulged in a few too many steins of German beer.

  But Alonso revealed: “A few of them, probably. But not too many. We had control.

  “For sure it was a moment to enjoy it. On Sunday we knew we had a chance so we took one day, in case of winning, to enjoy it.

  “But from Tuesday our mind has been focused on West Ham. Now it’s the Europa League and we have a great chance to make a great season even better.

  “The commitment, the way we’ve trained, give me reasons to believe we will play well tomorrow.

  “We have big challenges ahead. West Ham have good players, they have recent experience of beating Freiburg. We need to put in our best performance.

  “I don’t have any feeling that our mentality will be any different from the one that has given us this chance to reach the quarter-final.”

  Former Arsenal midfielder Granit Xhaka managed to achieve what Harry Kane could not do by winning the title in his first season in Germany.

  Kane’s switch from Tottenham to Bayern Munich was expected to end in Bundesliga glory but his new side have been left trailing in Leverkusen’s wake.

  “Before you transfer to another country you speak with the club and the coach about the plan and the philosophy,” said Xhaka.

  “But of course how we are playing is unbelievable, more than people were thinking before the season. I’m proud to be a part of this team.”