EPL

Premier League Fantasy Picks: Back Bobby to dazzle and Maddison to shine

By Sports Desk October 07, 2022

Sandwiched between two rounds of European fixtures, this weekend's Fantasy Football selections will be giving managers one serious headache.

The Premier League big boys look set to continue rotating their squads during a gruelling period, leaving plenty of guesswork for those of us on the outside.

That is not to mention a growing list of injuries and suspensions, which could force many to opt for their wildcard at this still-early stage of the campaign.

But fear not as, with the help of Opta data, Stats Perform has picked out four names we not only expect to start this weekend but also accrue some valuable points.

Emiliano Martinez (Nottingham Forest v Aston Villa)

Aston Villa's form has improved of late with two draws, including against Manchester City, and a victory in their past three league outings.

A large part of that has been down to becoming more stable at the back, with goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez helping his side to back-to-back clean sheets.

After keeping out Southampton and Leeds United, albeit with just two shots on target faced, he is seeking a third successive Premier League shutout for the first time since March.

Conor Coady (Everton v Manchester United)

Everton have looked to improve at the back this season and boast the best defensive record at this stage, having conceded seven goals across their opening eight matches.

Their new-found defensive resilience has coincided with the arrival of Conor Coady on loan from Wolves.

Coady was also on target in the win over Southampton last week, making him the fifth Premier League defender this term to score, assist and register a clean sheet.

James Maddison (Bournemouth v Leicester City)

Leicester City midfielder James Maddison caught the eye again with his double in the 4-0 win against Nottingham Forest, strengthening calls for him to be part of England's World Cup squad.

Maddison has been involved in 40 goals (25 goals, 15 assists) since the start of the 2020-21 campaign, a tally only Kevin De Bruyne (50) and Bruno Fernandes (48) can better.

He has five goals and two assists this season, accounting for 50 per cent of Leicester's goals – only Wolves winger Daniel Podence (67) and Manchester City striker Erling Haaland (59) have been involved in more of their side's goals.

Roberto Firmino (Arsenal v Liverpool)

In what has been a difficult campaign to date for Liverpool, the form of Roberto Firmino – who many predicted to depart Anfield – has been particularly surprising.

Not only has Firmino been Liverpool's best attacker with five goals and three assists, only Haaland (17) and De Bruyne (nine) have been involved in more in the division.

The Brazil international will look to continue that form on Sunday as he has scored more league goals (nine) and been involved in more (12) against Arsenal than any other side.

Related items

  • Football rumours: Manchester United join the pursuit of Dani Olmo Football rumours: Manchester United join the pursuit of Dani Olmo
    What the papers say

    Manchester United are the latest club to chase Spain midfielder Dani Olmo, 25, according to the Daily Mail. Real Madrid, Manchester City, Chelsea and Tottenham are also tracking the RB Leipzig player, who has a £52million release clause.

    Newcastle took the chance to watch Brazil players against England last week. The Newcastle Chronicle reports Barcelona winger Raphinha and Juventus defender Gleison Bremer, also 27, are potential targets.

    Crystal Palace face competition to sign Valencia defender Cristhian Mosquera, 19. The Evening Standard reports Atletico Madrid are also keen on the Spain Under-21 international.

    Chelsea are planning the club’s long-term future off the pitch. The Daily Mail says Todd Boehly will be replaced as chairman in 2027.

    Social media round-upPlayers to watch

    Joselu: The Spain striker, 34, who is on loan at Real Madrid from Espanyol, is among Manchester United’s potential targets, according to Spanish outlet Relevo.

    Jarrad Branthwaite: Manchester United face competition from Manchester City and Newcastle for Everton defender Jarrad Branthwaite, 21, reports Football Transfers.

  • Uli Hoeness says ‘probably impossible’ to lure Xabi Alonso from Bayer in summer Uli Hoeness says ‘probably impossible’ to lure Xabi Alonso from Bayer in summer

    Reported Liverpool managerial target Xabi Alonso is unlikely to jump ship from Bundesliga leaders Bayer Leverkusen, according to Bayern Munich honorary president Uli Hoeness.

    The 42-year-old, who lifted the Champions League trophy in 2005 during his debut season with the Reds, has been a widely touted as a likely replacement for Jurgen Klopp, who in January announced he will stand down at the end of the season after eight-and-a-half decorated years at Anfield.

    Bayern are thought to be one of the other clubs courting the Spaniard’s services, but Hoeness was highly pessimistic about anyone’s chances of luring Alonso away from Leverkusen.

    He told Das Erste: “We’ll have to see if we can do it this year.

    “It will be difficult, if not probably impossible. (Alonso) is more inclined to stay at Bayer Leverkusen in view of their current successes, because he would not want to leave them behind.

    “Let’s say if he had two or three more years of success, it would probably be easier to bring him out of there.”

    Alonso’s men are on course to secure the first Bundesliga title in the club’s history, sitting 10 points clear of Bayern Munich in second.

    In February, their 2-1 victory over Mainz to make it 33 games unbeaten broke the German record for consecutive competitive matches without a loss,  surpassing Hansi Flick’s Bayern Munich team of 2020 and 2021.

    They have since extended that run to 38 fixtures, most recently with a 3-2 victory over Freiburg before the international break.

  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

© 2023 SportsMaxTV All Rights Reserved.