If there is one thing football fans will simply never be calm about, it is the amount of money their club spends on transfers.
No matter how many new, shiny players their team signs, that brief release of endorphins they get from watching YouTube compilations, checking Twitter for updates and finally seeing some over-produced nonsense of a reveal video soon dissipates and it's on to the next one.
Having said that, you wonder what it must have been like to be a Nottingham Forest fan during the transfer window, which finally closed on Thursday.
Back in the Premier League for the first time since 1999, Forest are determined to cement their place in the top tier.
Whatever anyone thinks about the quality of the arrivals, the club absolutely went for quantity as an incredible 21 players came through the door at the City Ground at a total cost – according to Transfermarkt – of £145.76m. Only Chelsea (£251.09m), Manchester United (£214.22m) and West Ham (£163.80m) spent more in the Premier League.
At the other end of the scale, the spending of the team that finished two places above Forest in the Championship last season, Bournemouth, has been comparatively meagre.
The Cherries committed just £24.21m to incomings, with three of their six new arrivals in the window coming in on free transfers, and one a loan.
Head coach Scott Parker was sacked on Tuesday after making his feelings known on the lack of investment from above after his team's 9-0 humbling at Liverpool.
But which approach is likelier to pay off in the long run? You would think Forest's launching of money at anything and everything will give them a better chance of staying up, and possibly even challenging higher up the table in future, but football is rarely that simple.
Using fees from Transfermarkt, Stats Perform has taken a look at the past 10 years of spending from the Premier League's promoted clubs to see how those who splashed the cash in their first season back in the big time fared.
Forest have, unsurprisingly, spent more than any promoted team in Premier League history.
The only club to have come close was Aston Villa in 2019-20, forking out £143.55m after they got themselves back into the top flight.
While it worked as they avoided relegation, they did so by the skin of their teeth, with the final-day draw at West Ham keeping them safe by a single point.
Their survival was largely down to the brilliance of Jack Grealish, who was already there, though some of their signings that season remain at the club - such as Tyrone Mings, Ezri Konsa, Douglas Luiz and Marvelous Nakamba.
There have only been two other clubs to spend more than £100m in their first season back in the English top flight and both came in the 2018-19 campaign, with very different results.
Wolves' outlay of £101.48m saw them challenging for the European spots, finishing seventh with 16 wins and 57 points, ahead of Everton, Leicester City and West Ham.
Fulham, on the other hand, spent slightly more (£104.85m), but it did them no good at all as they finished 19th and went straight back down to the Championship, leaving them lumbered with a lot of expensive players with big contracts.
They have managed to recover since, and invested £55.26m after promotion last season, but it was proof if it were needed that big spending is not even a guarantee of survival, let alone success.
There have been just five clubs that have spent less than Bournemouth in preparation to make the jump from the second tier to the Premier League since the start of the 2012-13 season.
Two of them came in that campaign, and as above, with mixed results. Reading spent just £9.74m and unsurprisingly went back down, while West Ham forked out £21.51m on new recruits and finished 10th, and have remained in the Premier League ever since.
The same thing happened in 2014-15 as Burnley's spend of £11.36m was not enough to keep them up, while Leicester's outlay of £20.57m is the least any promoted team has spent without going back down in the past decade. A year later, they won the league.
The least any promoted team has ever spent was fairly recently, with Norwich City deciding they would try and mix it among the best in the land in 2019-20 with an outlay of just £7.93m. It did not work.
Those stories do not really allow us to draw any conclusions though, given the vastly differing fortunes between clubs who appeared to follow similar volumes of spending.
That rings true throughout the past 10 years, with some interesting outcomes along the way.
In the 2013-14 season, Cardiff City (£41.23m) spent more money than both fellow promoted sides, Hull City (£27.99m) and Crystal Palace (£29.70m), but were the only one of the three to go back down.
The 2017-18 campaign is the only one in the past decade that has seen all three promoted sides stay up, with each of them spending between £40-60m (Newcastle United - £41.85m, Huddersfield Town - £51.08m, Brighton and Hove Albion - £59.85m).
In the 2020-21 campaign, only high-spending Leeds United (£96.12m) stayed up of the promoted teams, with West Brom (£37.93m) and Fulham (£33.53m) going back down.
However, last season, only low-spending Brentford (£33.03m) stayed up, with Watford (£39.15m) and Norwich (£57.20m) going back down.
Across the past 10 seasons, the team that spent the most out of the three newly promoted sides has ended up being relegated in five of them, while in seven of the past 10 seasons, the team that spent the least of them has been relegated.
So, what can we gleam from all this?
Essentially, spending money does appear to provide a slight upper hand. Those who have spent more have given themselves a better chance of staying up, but arguably not by the extent you would expect, or even to the extent that makes doing so worthwhile.
Those who choose to be more frugal seem to pay for it eventually, apart from those who already had a strong squad or structure anyway, such as West Ham in 2012-13.
As is the case throughout the game, spending money will only work if it is done with intelligence and the players purchased are utilised efficiently.
Forest will be hoping Steve Cooper can continue to control the wheel as ably as he did in the Championship, but for whoever takes over at Bournemouth, this season might be like getting ahead of Formula One cars in a Ford Focus.
Guardiola insists three teams still in title hunt despite Liverpool slip-up
Pep Guardiola insists Liverpool remain in the Premier League title race, despite the Reds losing further ground on Arsenal and Manchester City in a dramatic few days at the summit.
Liverpool suffered a surprise 2-0 defeat to Merseyside rivals Everton on Wednesday, a result which meant they failed to close the gap to Arsenal after the Gunners thrashed Chelsea 5-0 on Tuesday.
While Jurgen Klopp's men couldn't respond to the Gunners pulling clear, City did on Thursday, with Phil Foden scoring twice in an emphatic 4-0 win over Brighton at the Amex Stadium.
One point behind Arsenal with a game in hand, City know five wins from their five remaining matches will seal an unprecedented fourth successive English top-flight title.
However, Guardiola expects further twists and turns in the coming weeks.
Asked if Liverpool were still in contention after City's win, Guardiola told Sky Sports: "Yeah. Many things can happen.
"What happened with Liverpool, losing to Crystal Palace and Everton, can happen to us. It can happen to Arsenal. No-one is safe. We have to rest. Now it is just about recovering for the next one.
"We have been here in the past but being here in the past doesn't mean it is going to happen. We have to do the things to make it happen."
City's comprehensive win – in which Kevin De Bruyne scored his first headed goal in the Premier League – saw them cut Arsenal's goal difference advantage to eight goals.
However, Guardiola believes it will be tough for City to close that gap, saying: "It is difficult to cut. The margin is so big. They score a lot of goals and don't concede.
"The main thing is to win the games. We have five games left and they are tough ones – it's a lot of games. We'll take it one game at a time."
Foden's first goal against Brighton – a deflected free-kick – saw him become just the third player to score 50 top-flight goals under Guardiola while aged 23 or younger, after Erling Haaland and Lionel Messi.
Foden is the favourite to be named Premier League Player of the Season, and while Guardiola believes he should be in contention, he says his player is more concerned with team honours.
"For sure, but he wants to win the Premier League," Guardiola said when asked if Foden deserved individual honours. "His influence in the final third was better than in the last two or three games. Today he was more calm, his decision-making was good and to score goals is always good."
Foden: De Bruyne the best in the Premier League
Phil Foden hailed Manchester City team-mate Kevin De Bruyne as the Premier League's best player after the pair both netted in the 4-0 win over Brighton and Hove Albion.
De Bruyne opened the scoring in Thursday's contest at Amex Stadium before Foden took over with a couple of goals of his own before half-time.
Julian Alvarez rounded off the scoring just after the hour in a one-sided contest as an Erling Haaland-less City moved to within a point of leaders Arsenal with a game in hand.
Belgium international De Bruyne now has four goals and six assists in just 13 league appearances for City this season.
Speaking to Sky Sports News after the win over Brighton, Foden said: "I think when he is at it, he is the best player in the Premier League."
Foden's first goal came via a deflected free-kick that he himself won, although replays showed he slipped rather than being fouled.
The England international doubled his personal tally with a composed finish after Brighton were caught in possession at the back.
Asked about playing more centrally, Foden said: "I have always said that I see myself there. This year I have moved inside and it has helped me massively.
"I enjoy it in the middle. It's where I want to be. At the moment, I am just enjoying my football and playing with freedom."
De Bruyne had earlier opened the scoring with a brilliant opener - his first headed goal for City in the Premier League - as City made it 30 games unbeaten in normal time across all competitions.
Alvarez then went on to round off the scoring in a game that not only saw the reigning champions close the gap on Arsenal, but also narrow the goal difference margin to eight.
"It was a good game," De Bruyne said. "I think we played really good in the first half and every game is a lot of pressure. All we can do is prepare as we did today and win the game that is in front of us.
"We just want to win game-by-game and push for the title. We don't get ahead of ourselves. Now the next game is coming quickly. Try to recover and we go again."
Kyle Walker assisted the De Bruyne and Alvarez goals - the first time the defender has set up two goals in a single Premier League game in what was his 390th appearance in the competition.
Reflecting on his rare headed goal, De Bruyne said: "It doesn't happen too much. Kyle gave a good cross and I think the only way I could reach it is by jumping to it. I will take it but it's not something I am good at."
City have rather ominously won four Premier League games in a row and travel to strugglers Nottingham Forest next up at the weekend, knowing victory in their remaining five games will secure an unprecedented fourth straight title.
"I trust my team. All respect to Liverpool and Arsenal, they are amazing," De Bruyne added. "Arsenal are doing what they need to do and we are also needing to do it. Work hard and be humble enough to keep pushing."
Los Angeles FC v Portland Timbers: Neville relishing swift rematch
Phil Neville is looking forward to a quick reunion with Los Angeles FC when the Portland Timbers head down to southern California.
The Timbers face LAFC on Saturday, just two weeks after they drew 2-2 with Steve Cherundolo’s team at home.
Felipe Mora and Evander scored for Portland that day, but Mateusz Bogusz’s double ensured a share of the spoils, with the Timbers having goalkeeper Maxime Crepeau sent off.
LAFC had a goal disallowed late on, and Neville believes both teams will feel they deserved more from that match.
He said: “Both managers came out of the game two weeks ago feeling hard done by – they had a goal disallowed in the last few minutes, we were really disappointed too in the performance of the referee.
“Saturday’s another game where we have to go for it. When you play teams really close together, there’s not much scouting, there’s only been one game between, so it’s about remembering the good things we did and how we can cause problems.”
Portland drew 2-2 with the Columbus Crew last time out, and Neville is satisfied with the level on show from his side, who sit down in 11th in the Western Conference.
“We took a lot of confidence out of the game against Columbus,” he said.
“We came up with chances to win the game, but we were beaten by an incredible goal. The boys are in really good shape, they’re looking forward to the game on Saturday – my first trip to LAFC so I’m looking forward to that. It’s another brilliant game against a really good team. We played them a couple of weeks ago. We know each other, both teams know each other.”
PLAYERS TO WATCH
LAFC – Denis Bouanga
Bouanga scored both of LAFC’s goals against the New York Red Bulls last time out, including the equaliser in stoppage time. It was the eighth time Bouanga has scored multiple goals in an MLS match since the start of last season (incl. playoffs). No other player has more than four multi-goal games in that time.
Portland Timbers – Felipe Mora
Mora has scored in each of his last four appearances for the Timbers, though Portland have not won any of those matches (D3 L1). Mora is the fifth player in the post-shootout era (since 2000) to score in four straight matches but not be on the winning side in any of them.
MATCH PREDICTION: LAFC WIN
LAFC are unbeaten in eight straight home matches (W6 D2) in all competitions. They have scored multiple goals in seven of those eight matches.
However, LAFC have won only two of their last 10 regular-season matches against the Timbers (D4 L4).
The Timbers have scored in all 14 meetings with LAFC in league play since 2019 while LAFC have scored in 13 of those 14.
Portland are winless in six straight matches (D3 L3), including drawing the last three in a row. The Timbers have only three longer winless runs within a single regular season, most recently an eight-match run in March-April 2014.
OPTA WIN PROBABILITY
LAFC – 56.2%
Portland Timbers – 19.5%
Draw – 24.3%
SportsMax is the Caribbean sports channel of choice, committed to providing sporting content of the highest quality to the Caribbean, delivered by a team of highly innovative, passionate and qualified professionals.
(876) 619-7629
digitalmedia@sportsmax.tv
