EPL

Premier League data dive: Chelsea's poor start continues at Southampton, Mitrovic scores again to down Brighton

By Sports Desk August 30, 2022

Chelsea continued their frustrating start to the Premier League season with a disappointing loss at Southampton – which had previously been a happy hunting ground.

The Blues took an early lead but could not hold off a Southampton comeback, leaving Thomas Tuchel's side with just two wins from their opening five league games.

Brighton and Hove Albion's unbeaten start came to an end against Fulham at Craven Cottage, Crystal Palace conceded a late equaliser against Brentford, while Leeds United and Everton shared the spoils in a fiery 1-1 draw at Elland Road.

Here, Stats Perform unpacks the pick of the data from Tuesday's fixtures in the English top flight.

Southampton 2-1 Chelsea: Sterling delivers but Saints finally sink Blues at home

Romeo Lavia and Adam Armstrong cancelled out Raheem Sterling's opener as Southampton beat Chelsea at home in the Premier League for the first time since March 2013.

Saints were winless in nine games at St Mary's against Chelsea in the competition and would have feared a familiar fate after Sterling poked home in the 23rd minute.

That marked the forward's 169th goal involvement (112 goals, 57 assists) in the top flight, a tally bettered by only Harry Kane (230) Sergio Aguero (209 and Jamie Vardy (175) since Sterling made his debut in March 2012.

But Lavia soon hit back as he became the fourth youngest Southampton player to score in the Premier League, with the recent arrival aged just 18 years and 236 days.

A smart Armstrong finish then inflicted consecutive top-flight away defeats on Chelsea for the first time under Tuchel, who may have reasons for concern after an underwhelming start to the new campaign.

Indeed, Chelsea (W2 D1 L2) have lost two or more of their first five games in a Premier League season for just the second time this century. The last time it happened, they finished 10th in 2015-16 after opening with three losses in five games.

Fulham 2-1 Brighton and Hove Albion: Mitrovic ends Seagulls' flying start

Brighton headed to Craven Cottage unbeaten in nine league games, winning six of those, but were undone by Aleksandar Mitrovic and a Lewis Dunk own goal.

Mitrovic continued his fine form in front of goal for his 48th-minute opener, scoring for a fourth time in the Premier League against the Seagulls, more than he has managed against any other side in the competition.

The Serbian's strike also marked his 100th league goal in Fulham colours before Dunk turned into his own net – his sixth Premier League own goal, more than any other player since the start of the 2016-17 season.

Richard Dunne (10), Martin Skrtel (7), Phil Jagielka (7) and Jamie Carragher (7) are the only players to find their own net more in Premier League history than Dunk, who endured a night to forget.

Alexis Mac Allister offered brief hope of sparing Dunk's blushes with a penalty, but Fulham held on to reach eight points from five games, their best start to a top-flight season since the 2012-13 term (nine points).

Crystal Palace 1-1 Brentford: Zaha-reliant Eagles suffer more London derby frustration

Wilfried Zaha continued to carry the hopes of Selhurst Park on his shoulders, but his curling effort was not enough to see Palace to a rare London derby victory.

The Ivory Coast international found the top-right corner in the 59th minute to open the scoring, his 13th goal in 20 appearances in the Premier League in 2022, as many as he managed in his previous 45 games in the competition.

Zaha has also scored six of Palace’s last seven home league goals, but the Eagles could not hold out for what would have been just a third win in their last 20 top-flight London derbies.

Yoane Wissa denied Palace in the 88th minute with a fourth league goal in his last eight games on the road.

Brentford have now avoided defeat in five of their last eight Premier League games where they conceded first (W2 D3 L3), while Palace have won just one of their last five when opening the scoring in the league.

Leeds 1-1 Everton: Lampard's men let another lead slip

Everton remain winless this season in the Premier League (D3 L2), despite taking the lead at Elland Road through Anthony Gordon. Expecting Everton to hold a lead has become a fool's game.

Luis Sinisterra's leveller means that since Frank Lampard's first league game in charge of Everton in February, only Leicester (16) and Wolves (14) have dropped more points from winning positions than the Toffees (13).

Leeds would have seen this as an opportunity to put three more points on the board, but at least their unbeaten run at home continues. They have earned eight points from their last four league games at Elland Road (W2 D2), which is as many as they had mustered from their previous 11 (W2 D2 L7).

Will Gordon stay with Everton beyond Thursday's transfer deadline, or could the links to Chelsea see him move on? He has now scored two goals in his last two Premier League games, having netted just four in his first 52 appearances. His last two strikes have been away from home, with each of his first four coming at Goodison Park.

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    Newcastle took the chance to watch Brazil players against England last week. The Newcastle Chronicle reports Barcelona winger Raphinha and Juventus defender Gleison Bremer, also 27, are potential targets.

    Crystal Palace face competition to sign Valencia defender Cristhian Mosquera, 19. The Evening Standard reports Atletico Madrid are also keen on the Spain Under-21 international.

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    Joselu: The Spain striker, 34, who is on loan at Real Madrid from Espanyol, is among Manchester United’s potential targets, according to Spanish outlet Relevo.

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  • Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race Analysing the attacks in a thrilling Championship promotion race

    The Championship returns from the international break with, much like the Premier League, a three-horse tussle at the top.

    Leicester City, having led the standings for the majority of the campaign, now find themselves in second place behind Leeds United, albeit with a game in hand on the in-form Whites.

    The Foxes are grappling with off-pitch issues, and a return to form when they face Bristol City on Friday would go far to restoring some momentum.

    Leeds, on the other hand, have won 12 of their last 13 Championship fixtures, dropping points just once in that run.

    As for third-placed Ipswich Town, they are hot on the heels of their automatic-promotion rivals.

    All of these sides have built their fine campaigns on some brilliant attacking play, scoring 224 goals between them. Using Opta data, we can look at just how these attacks stack up.

     

    Ipswich Town

    Of these three teams, Ipswich have scored the most goals, with Kieran McKenna's side netting 80 across their 38 matches - an average of 2.1 per game. That makes the Tractor Boys the leading scorers in the league, while they are also the leading team for non-penalty goals (78).

    Ipswich have, however, greatly outperformed their expected goals (xG) of 64.2, while also greatly exceeding their non-penalty xG (61.8). When it comes to those metrics, they rank fourth and second in the second tier respectively. Their expected goals on target (xGOT) figure of 69.5 shows their finishing has been above the standard of what would be anticipated from the quality of chances, and they rank third in the league in this aspect.

    Unsurprisingly, Ipswich lead the way for shots (590), while they rank second for shots on target (214). They are fourth in the Championship for shot conversion rate (13.5 per cent), big chances (94) and big chances scored (42). Their big-chance conversion rate, of 44.68, stands as the sixth best in the competition.

    But how do Ipswich create their chances? Well, they aren't afraid to send crosses into the area, with their 114 successful open-play crosses ranking second. However, it's Ipswich's high press that really stands out.

    They have forced 309 high turnovers (winning the ball back within 40 yards of the opponent's goal), at an average of 8.1 per match. They lead the league for shot-ending high turnovers, with 65, albeit they are tied for fifth when it comes to scoring goals from such scenarios (seven). McKenna's team are certainly able to go direct, too, given they rank down at 10th for sequences of 10+ passes. 

     

    Don't bet against Ipswich if they go behind, meanwhile. They have gained 28 points from a losing position, topping the Championship.

    And when they get the lead, Ipswich typically hold onto it, with only two teams dropping fewer points from a winning position.

    Leicester City

    Ranking behind Ipswich for goals scored are Leicester, with 74 to their name. The Foxes are also second in the Championship for xG (68) and for xGOT (73.5).

    It is worth noting that Leicester have been more reliant on penalties, having scored 12 goals from the spot. 

    Leicester have mustered the fifth-highest tally of shots (525), while their 189 shots on target ranks fourth in the division.

    But in which metrics do Leicester top the Championship? Enzo Maresca's team lead the way for shot conversion (14.1 per cent), big chances (111) and big chances scored (50).

    Leicester are hardly a pressing machine off the ball, having averaged just 7.4 high turnovers per game, but what the Foxes lack in quantity they make up for in quality – they have scored a joint league-leading eight goals from those situations.

    Maresca's men do not particularly look to cross at a high volume, though when they do put deliveries in, they are often on point. Leicester are 19th out of 24 teams for total open-play crosses, yet they rank third for successful open-play deliveries.

    If teams go ahead against Leicester, however, then the Foxes are not the best at coming from behind, having gained only 10 points from such positions this term.

    Leeds United

    So, what about Leeds, the league leaders heading into the Easter weekend?

    Leeds have accumulated more xG than any other Championship team, at 68.4, while 62.9 of that total has come from non-penalty shots. However, they rank down in fourth for both goals (70) and non-penalty goals (65). Interestingly, the Whites' xGOT is 69.2, so they have been finishing slightly above what would be expected from chances they have crafted.

     

    Daniel Farke's team are the Championship leaders for high turnovers, with 319, while their average of 11 passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), which measures how often a team presses their opponent, is the second highest in the competition.

    Leeds have been exceptionally effective from this high press, too. They have had the third-highest shots (61) and, along with Leicester, lead the Championship for goal-ending high turnovers, with eight.

    The Whites may only have got 201 of their 586 shots on target, with an 11.9 per cent shot conversion rate, but they are excellent at creating quality chances, ranking second for big chances (102), which are defined by Opta as an opportunity from which a player would be reasonably expected to score.

    Should Leeds take a lead, then they are excellent at holding onto it. They have dropped the fewest points (four) of any Championship team from winning positions, while they rank second for points gained from losing positions (21).

    Unlike Leicester or Ipswich, there is no focus at all on crossing, or quality crossing, from Leeds. Farke's side actually rank 23rd for both open-play crosses and successful open-play deliveries. Perhaps forcing them wide will be the only way their opponents can keep them out in the run-in?

  • Sean Dyche hoping Everton’s latest Premier League charge ‘comes to nothing’ Sean Dyche hoping Everton’s latest Premier League charge ‘comes to nothing’

    Everton boss Sean Dyche is hoping for a quick resolution to the club’s latest profit and sustainability charge and that the case “comes to nothing”.

    The Merseysiders, who have already been deducted six points this season, are facing further punishment over a second alleged breach of the Premier League’s regulations.

    A hearing took place earlier this week and the club are now awaiting a verdict, which should be delivered before April 8.

    Dyche said at a press conference: “They’ve shared the information that was asked of them. It’s too early to get a feel of it and we’re just waiting, really, like we did last time.

    “I’m sure everyone’s hoping that it’s fast-tracked slightly, but we’ll have to wait and see.

    “I don’t think anyone has concrete proof of how or which way these things will go, particularly after the first one.

    “We can only give the information that’s appropriate. I wasn’t there, obviously, but I’m told we’ve given every bit of information that we can give.

    “We hope that they see, accordingly, what the club has been trying to do to make sure we’re within the right areas that they need us to be in. So, therefore, we’ll hope that it comes to nothing.”

    Everton’s punishment and potential further sanction, coupled with a four-point deduction for relegation rivals Nottingham Forest, has confused the situation at the bottom of the table.

    The Toffees are currently four points above 18th-placed Forest, but the East Midlands outfit have an appeal pending.

    There are fears the final positions, and consequently the relegation picture, may not be resolved until after the season has concluded.

    With Everton initially docked 10 points before that was reduced to six on appeal, and the Forest penalty a different figure altogether, Dyche admits he is puzzled.

    “There’s no consistency,” said Dyche, whose side travel to Bournemouth on Saturday hoping to end an 11-game winless run.

    “I don’t know the minutiae of our own, let alone theirs. When you’re in that room, and the way they decide things, maybe there’s different reasons and I can only imagine there’s more depth to it.

    “But in its simplest form, then I think everyone, not just us, said, ‘How’s that? Where did that come from? How does that work out?’

    Dyche, meanwhile, played down reports of a bust-up with defender Nathan Patterson during the club’s recent training camp in Portugal.

    It was claimed Dyche jokingly aimed a slap at the Scot but accidentally caught him harder than he intended, leading to heated exchanges.

    Dyche said: “The old favourite – never let the truth get in the way of a good story.

    “There’s nothing in it, really. It was a joke. I tapped him on the head like your older brother would, and he didn’t get the joke. That was it, basically. There’s no more to it.

    “But of course, that wouldn’t have sold. So, when that does get out everyone has to add layers and layers and layers to it but it’s really that simple. That was it.”

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